2023 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

[bowtie`]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty good lightning.  Kind of a mini-train setting up around here.

Unless that stuff south of you starts moving directly north, it is going to be a rather short train.

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Added a few since that time, including one in Decatur quite possibly.

Seeing some pictures of minor structural damage on Facebook in Decatur

[Hoosier]

You can put it on the board.... yes.  Without double checking, I'd be pretty confident about this being the earliest day in the calendar year for a tornado in the LOT cwa.

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
924 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TORNADO          3 SSE GIBSON CITY       40.43N 88.35W
01/03/2023                   FORD               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PHOTO SHARED VIA LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA SHOWS
            A TORNADO SOUTHEAST OF GIBSON CITY. FORD
            COUNTY EM CONFIRMS TWO HOMESTEADS SOUTHEAST
            OF GIBSON CITY SUSTAINED DAMAGE FROM THIS
            TORNADO. POWER LINES WERE ALSO DOWNED IN THE
            AREA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE MADE
            AVAILABLE AT SOME POINT TOMORROW.

[Hoosier]

Was thinking how it was only a week and a half ago that we were talking about blizzard-like conditions and freezing our asses off.  The zzzz periods do suck when they are prolonged, but we can do some pretty wild swings in the Midwest.

[Hoosier]

Yesterday's tornado near Gibson City was only the 3rd one recorded in the LOT cwa in January (since 1950)

https://www.weather.gov/lot/2023jan03

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yesterday's tornado near Gibson City was only the 3rd one recorded in the LOT cwa in January (since 1950)

https://www.weather.gov/lot/2023jan03

LOT rated it EF-1

[fluoronium]

January 3rd was one of my best storm chases ever! I saw multiple tornadoes, and got within 100 meters of the EF1 tornado that went through Maroa, IL. I also witnessed an anticyclonic funnel, as well as beautiful winter mini supercell structure. The lightning was great too! I love these Illinois troll days.

 

[fluoronium]

Another opportunity for cold core tornadoes? Why the hell not?

No interest from the SPC yet, but I've already got my cameras charging.

[Chicago Storm]

Another opportunity for cold core tornadoes? Why the hell not?
No interest from the SPC yet, but I've already got my cameras charging.

It’s gonna take more than the 40’s DP’s most guidance has.


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[Hoosier]

It'll be game on if the HRRR verifies with the higher dewpoints, as it generates a respectable amount of CAPE with those still relatively modest dews.  That is a big if though.

I'd break it down into 3 scenarios.

1) The HRRR verifies, which would lead to a decent severe threat for this time of year

2) The other guidance with lower dews verifies, resulting in essentially no severe threat

3) Something somewhere in between the HRRR and other models verifies, which could lead to a rogue severe report or two

[MNstorms]

Didn't expect this. First time Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Iowa has had a January severe risk. Minnesota has never had a January or February tornado or even a warning for severe. It will be interesting to see if the low chance happens.

[Powerball]

9 hours ago, MNstorms said:

Didn't expect this. First time Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Iowa has had a January severe risk. Minnesota has never had a January or February tornado or even a warning for severe. It will be interesting to see if the low chance happens.

Considering the data for marginal risk areas is only limited to when it debuted in late 2014, I'm not sure how accurate that point this.

I suspect if one did some more digging, MN / WI / IA at least had a "SEE TEXT" at some point in the past during January or February.

[CheeselandSkies]

DMX not entirely sold:

 

Quote

The HRRR and RAP solutions regarding instability on Monday have been
all the rage on social media since their domains reached that
period. Both are anomalously high on dew point temperatures with
values in the low to mid 50s into central Iowa and both tend to over
mix the boundary layer during stratus events. Other solutions are
more conservative on both temperatures and dew points and do not
overcome the warm wedge aloft. Sounding wind profiles do have
direction shear below 900 mb but whether that shear is acting on
surface based instability certainly is questionable. January
tornadoes have occurred on only one day in Iowa recorded history,
January 24, 1967 when 13 tornadoes occurred over the southeast
portion of the state. That event was followed up by a blizzard
with record snow accumulations over the state, thus a very strong
system. It often takes a historical type system such as Dec 15,
2021 when nearly 80 kts of flow was at 850 mb or below. The
majority of the time, stratus wins which leads to non- events. As
always, will need to monitor trends and will have a great
opportunity to do that over the next 24 hrs as the low matures and
we can get a better handle on how much moisture will reach the
state.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Marginal-equivalent probabilities were extended into far SE WI (actually, 5% hail contour extended further) for 1/7/2008, although the category didn't exist back then. EF3 with a 10-mile path hit in Walworth and Kenosha Counties.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2008/day1otlk_20080107_2000.html

[cyclone77]

Don't remember ever being in a SPC tornado risk in mid January before.  Even if the storms don't come to full fruition at the least the sky should look pretty interesting later tomorrow afternoon.  

[CheeselandSkies]

Like last night's 00Z, the 3KM CAPE on the 12Z HRRR is...noteworthy.

[Hoosier]

36 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Like last night's 00Z, the 3KM CAPE on the 12Z HRRR is...noteworthy.

Pretty much sticking to its guns.  18z run will be interesting to see if it backs off at all. 

In this setup, it's gonna make a difference whether dews are in the upper 40s vs like 53.

[Hoosier]

18z HRRR basically held.

Something's gotta give lol

[Hoosier]

They did remove the marginal risk on the updated day 2 outlook.  I figured it would've been left in place for continuity purposes even with all the uncertainty.  Can debate whether a marginal risk should've been outlined on the first day 2 outlook, but it's not like the 12z runs were the thing to lower the threat.  Each model essentially stuck to its guns.

[Chicago Storm]

18z HRRR basically held.
Something's gotta give lol

It most definitely took a step back with DP’s.


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[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

It most definitely took a step back with DP’s.


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What, like 1 degree?  They still max at 53 in the target area.

[Hoosier]

Admittedly would be nice to see something other than the RAP on board with this lol

 

[Chicago Storm]

What, like 1 degree?  They still max at 53 in the target area.

Shaved a few degrees off the north end.

In the end it doesn’t matter much, with the HRRR alone on an island.


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[cyclone77]

SPC maintained a general thunder instead of a marginal on the 06z day 1.  Still looking forward to a stormy looking sky late in the day, which will prob be the most exciting weather event of the month lol.

[Hoosier]

06z HRRR is STILL bringing low 50s dews into central Iowa over through the Quad Cities area.  

Stubborn son of a gun

[Hoosier]

The marginal risk has returned.

 

...Eastern IA and northwest IL...
   Favorable wind profiles for low-topped supercells will be present in
   the southeast quadrant of a 994-mb surface cyclone tracking from
   southwest to northeast IA. Surface temperatures have warmed into the
   mid 50s to low 60s in a confined corridor centered on LWD-CDJ before
   broadening across central MO, with relatively ample insolation
   beneath the mid-level dry slot. The 12Z NAM and most HREF members
   appear much too cool within the thermal axis compared to 16Z
   observations. The RAP/HRRR-based guidance appear closer to reality
   but may be a bit too moist given an even narrower corridor of low
   50s surface dew points from southwest to north-central MO. But
   further mixing and poleward moisture advection may be just enough,
   given the mid-level cold pocket of -22 to -24 C at 500 mb, to
   support meager MLCAPE approaching 500 J/kg towards mid-afternoon.
   While it is plausible that convection may fail to adequately
   intensify this afternoon, observational trends along with HRRR/RRFS
   guidance suggest the threat for a couple brief tornadoes and
   marginally severe hail is large enough to warrant low severe
   probabilities. Convection will subside quickly after sunset as it
   outpaces the narrow plume of weak surface-based instability. 

[Chicago Storm]

There is currently only a handful of DP’s of 50-52 in a very narrow corridor, from SE IA down into E MO. That’s not going to cut it.

HRRR definitely taking an L on this one.


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[Hoosier]

I don't think the NAM/GFS ever had dews in the 50s in Iowa.  There's at least a narrow corridor of that at present. 

Scenario 3 that I outlined may be most plausible one at this point

 

On 1/15/2023 at 12:04 AM, Hoosier said:

It'll be game on if the HRRR verifies with the higher dewpoints, as it generates a respectable amount of CAPE with those still relatively modest dews.  That is a big if though.

I'd break it down into 3 scenarios.

1) The HRRR verifies, which would lead to a decent severe threat for this time of year

2) The other guidance with lower dews verifies, resulting in essentially no severe threat

3) Something somewhere in between the HRRR and other models verifies, which could lead to a rogue severe report or two

 

 

[Chicago Storm]

so many poor saps went to iowa for today.

kids these days.


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[Chicago Storm]

so many poor saps went to iowa for today.

kids these days.


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famous last words.


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