Stebo Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Bit on the fringe of the subforum but Western Kentucky absolutely got destroyed with rain today including Mayfield. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Stebo said: Bit on the fringe of the subforum but Western Kentucky absolutely got destroyed with rain today including Mayfield. It sucks, some people who were just rebuilding their homes from the tornado just lost them again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Bit on the fringe of the subforum but Western Kentucky absolutely got destroyed with rain today including Mayfield. Those quasi stationary boundaries can just be flat out deadly in these events. If I’m not mistaken something similar occurred in WV last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 East of I69 looks to be the hotspot especially just across the border. I’m hoping for some good ones to roll through. If supercells do form I’m going to go out. Right in the heart of it where I’m stayingYeah it’s why going to Napoleon and sitting is a great move. Head west or east on 24 to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 31 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Yeah it’s why going to Napoleon and sitting is a great move. Head west or east on 24 to chase I was thinking about positioning between Findlay and Kenton not far from 30. Hope it’s timed closer to when I’m off work so I can head that way to be ahead of what development goes on and go from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 2 hours ago, nwohweather said: Those quasi stationary boundaries can just be flat out deadly in these events. If I’m not mistaken something similar occurred in WV last year June 14, 1990 Shadyside, Ohio….still remember that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Things could get stormy tomorrow. Today's 12km NAM had 3900 J/kg of CAPE in NW Ohio. The models seem to vary on the 0-6km shear of 30kt up to 45 kt (the 18z NAM), which is quite good for summer, but storm relative helicity should not be remarkable. 12km NAM has up to 73 dew points in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 9 hours ago, Chinook said: Things could get stormy tomorrow. Today's 12km NAM had 3900 J/kg of CAPE in NW Ohio. The models seem to vary on the 0-6km shear of 30kt up to 45 kt (the 18z NAM), which is quite good for summer, but storm relative helicity should not be remarkable. 12km NAM has up to 73 dew points in Indiana. Not a bad setup. Concerned a bit with the LCL but I think we could see some solid hail and damaging winds tomorrow. I’d expect a tornado warning somewhere around Toledo with that front hanging out, you just know something will spin along it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 TOL, DTW, and FWA area posters might consider making plans to keep their vehicles safely under cover later today (unless you already need some body work.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 minute ago, IWXwx said: TOL, DTW, and FWA area posters might consider making plans to keep their vehicles safely under cover later today (unless you already need some body work.) I was just reading about the hail possibly getting to around 2” or a bit bigger. Could be explosive this afternoon if morning convection holds off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: I was just reading about the hail possibly getting to around 2” or a bit bigger. Could be explosive this afternoon if morning convection holds off Most models have it occurring to my south. If there is 2" hail I won't mind a miss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 30 minutes ago, Lightning said: Most models have it occurring to my south. If there is 2" hail I won't mind a miss! On my way to work I found a few areas I can park my company truck. No other co workers for 60 miles and don’t feel like having my windshield smashed lol. Ready to thread the needle on avoiding hail cores if needed edit: today definitely has that feel to it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: On my way to work I found a few areas I can park my company truck. No other co workers for 60 miles and don’t feel like having my windshield smashed lol. Ready to thread the needle on avoiding hail cores if needed edit: today definitely has that feel to it My guess would be Lenawee and Monroe / northern OH day. If things fire early then add Wayne / Washtenaw up to the thumb into it. I am likely to far west (based on majority of the models) and get to see some great cloud formations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 enhanced from Detroit almost down to Dayton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 It's not often you see these a hatched 30% risk probability for the Detroit area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Now that’s what the hell I’m talking about nice and spicy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said: Now that’s what the hell I’m talking about nice and spicy I feel like you missed the perfect opportunity for a pun there... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Radar and satellite trends look A-1 as well. Not often that happens in that part of the country either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Love the hail chances today for here. Hard to imagine with those robust updrafts we won't see tornadoes here today, all definitely of the EF2 and under variety though. Planning to chase today for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Powerball said: I feel like you missed the perfect opportunity for a pun there... I did realize after the fact but also working at the same time lol. Very sticky here in Lima right now. 79/71 where I’m located. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 It's not often that you see an MD for almost the whole mitt and the whole mitt only. EDIT: Jinx to @Powerball. You just beat me to it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Strong SW winds developed here in the past couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 And now we wait for the WW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 scattered clouds but strong sun here in Cincinnati... 84/74 imby, I think we will probably see an upgrade to a 5% tor risk at least for ne IN/ nw OH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 minute ago, nvck said: scattered clouds but strong sun here in Cincinnati... 84/74 imby, I think we will probably see an upgrade to a 5% tor risk at least for ne IN/ nw OH? nvm... new day1 is out and 5% is there just farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: Now I wonder if the southern end is where supercells will form. Or will this be a large bowing segment going through multiple states with imbedded rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 t Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1253 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1249 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concerns. The severe weather risk concludes by about 10 PM eastern daylight time. Dry, not as hot and humid, on Friday. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 1249 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Increasing confidence on severe weather occuring later this afternoon. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concerns. SPC Mesoanalysis temperatures and dew points initialize well this hour which bolsters confidence in their derived thermodynamic parameters. A warm front is now approaching the I-94 corridor in MI while a cold front is between Milwaukee and Chicago. Severe weather parameters this afternoon, and going forward, are very favorable for storms capable of large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. High resolution guidance, mainly the HRRR, has been fairly consistent run-to-run regarding storm initialization near 3 PM EDT over far southern MI and northeast IN. Forecast soundings show an increasing risk of large hail due to enormous CAPE profiles, Effective Bulk Wind Profiles in excess of 30 knots, SHIP > 1, and mid- level lapse rates in excess of 6.5 C/km. Damaging wind gusts are also a concern due to favorable low-level lapse rates and are perhaps also favored toward Putnam, Van Wert and Allen counties in Ohio as discreet storms early attempt to become linear through time. The tornado risk is meager with small SRH values, generally unidirectional low-level flow, and LCLs in excess of 1km. Though, discrete storms toward the warm front would have the greatest tornado potential due to enhanced helicity there. Lastly, South Bend and points southwest might miss out on the severe weather risk because storms seem favored to develop east of there and then (of course) drift southeast. High confidence that storms will exit the forecast area by 9-10 PM EDT; notably sooner for those in southern MI and far northeast IN. Just a touch cool tonight with lows near 60. Cooler and not as humid on Friday with dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Certainly not lacking any energy. Still a small amount of capping in place but sheesh once that match gets thrown on the pile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now