2023 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

[michaelmantis]

The storms in NW IL and East Iowa blow up nicely on the visible satellite in the last hour. 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-N_Illinois-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I was less than a 1/2 mile from the storms the hit N IL in Elgin a few days back (found a bunch of insulation from homes nearby in my backyard that fell from the sky while cutting the lawn today) and our area could use a break. About 3 dozen houses with tarps as roofs so hope there isn't a storm coming through this way and it passes us by.  

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Cell in Wayne county looking pretty supercellular now. Wish I was home to see it. Hopefully it don’t tighten up anymore or the metro is in some trouble

This was over 15 mins looking north.

And then after the storms 

 

[nwohweather]

5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

This was over 15 mins looking north.

And then after the storms 

 

Imagine seeing that as a pilot 

[outflow]

4 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Lots of tree damage in that area along with wind driven hail damage. Couldn't keep in front of it when it finally got tight around the village of  Applegate, got a late start and played catchup having to drive in through all the heavy rain.

 

[Malacka11]

Line looking decent as it scuttles east? Dusk lightning show time?

[SolidIcewx]

59 minutes ago, Stebo said:

This was over 15 mins looking north.

And then after the storms 

 

Holy shit that’s crazy. If there was more juice in the atmosphere it could have been a different story. Just now back home for the weekend if only I was a few hours earlier

[Baum]

44 minutes ago, outflow said:

Lots of tree damage in that area along with wind driven hail damage. Couldn't keep in front of it when it finally got tight around the village of  Applegate, got a late start and played catchup having to drive in through all the heavy rain.

 

lawn needs  a cut.

[outflow]

9 minutes ago, Baum said:

lawn needs  a cut

Nearby corn got cut....

[weatherbo]

1 hour ago, Baum said:

lawn needs  a cut.

You'll really be disappointed with my yard.  I mow just once in late Aug or early Sept.

 

 

[Baum]

55 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

You'll really be disappointed with my yard.  I mow just once in late Aug or early Sept.

 

 

I've been in the landscaping business my whole life. Was cutting lawns 10 hours a day at 12 for my Dad's business. Oddly, I ilke the look of your lawn.

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

You'll really be disappointed with my yard.  I mow just once in late Aug or early Sept.

 

 

Better for pollinators at least with the flowers 

[nwohweather]

25 minutes ago, Baum said:

I've been in the landscaping business my whole life. Was cutting lawns 10 hours a day at 12 for my Dad's business. Oddly, I ilke the look of your lawn.

That’s a meadow not a lawn 

Shame we’re seeing sunset put a lid on this. Shear and instability is pretty high at the moment for those storms along the Toll Road

[chitown]

Sirens just went off here in South Naperville near the DuPage/Will county border

[metallica470]

Confirmed tornado in Glen Ellyn

[MidwestChaser]

Confirmed tornado in Glen Ellyn

Really close to me supposedly.


.

[metallica470]

Or maybe not? Verbage was in the warning, but not any longer.

[nwohweather]

1 minute ago, metallica470 said:

Confirmed tornado in Glen Ellyn

That’s shocking. Not much rotation on radar

[metallica470]

3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

That’s shocking. Not much rotation on radar

Yea, must have been very brief if anything. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

5 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

That’s shocking. Not much rotation on radar

Stated “radar confirmed”, but I definitely did not see a CC drop or anything on velocity 

[sbnwx85]

We'll see if these hold up. Note in the discussion 53kt gust in Aurora.

Mesoscale Discussion 1560
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0929 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

   Areas affected...Northern IN into southwest Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 150229Z - 150400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some damaging-wind threat may spread eastward late this
   evening. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment has recently intensified across
   northeast IL, with a 53 kt gust recently observed in Aurora, IL.
   Some uptick in storm intensity has also been noted into central IL.
   The downstream environment into northern IN and southwest lower MI
   is not as unstable, but some low-level moistening from the
   southwest, in conjunction with continued support from a midlevel
   shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes, may help to sustain
   these storms as they move eastward late this evening. 

   While nocturnal cooling has commenced, a residual well-mixed
   boundary layer resulting from earlier diurnal heating/mixing may
   continue to support a threat of locally damaging gusts as storms
   spread across northern IN and Lake Michigan into southwest lower MI.
   Depending on trends over the next 30-60 minutes, watch issuance is
   possible.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/15/2023

[Stebo]

32 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Stated “radar confirmed”, but I definitely did not see a CC drop or anything on velocity 

It was there, rode just north of 56 from North Aurora to Valley View.

[Castaway]

Was able to catch some timelapse footage, looking West towards Glen Ellyn, between Roosevelt Rd. and Butterfield Rd.  
 

Will post more.

[Castaway]

 

[Nflow6]

Thanks! Was born in Glen Ellyn a zillion years ago

[SchaumburgStormer]

11 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Stated “radar confirmed”, but I definitely did not see a CC drop or anything on velocity 

 

10 hours ago, Stebo said:

It was there, rode just north of 56 from North Aurora to Valley View.

And that’s why I am not a professional. LOT posted a loop of the radar and had they not circled the CC drop, I would have been damn near unable to pick it out from the noise. 
 

https://www.weather.gov/lot/2023_07_14_SevereWeather

[nwohweather]

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

And that’s why I am not a professional. LOT posted a loop of the radar and had they not circled the CC drop, I would have been damn near unable to pick it out from the noise. 
 

https://www.weather.gov/lot/2023_07_14_SevereWeather

It was extremely faint, like finding a satellite on starry night

[Tezeta]

On 7/12/2023 at 5:39 PM, Tezeta said:

are these all birdfarts or are we gonna see a legit EF2+

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Here's another frame grab from about 30 seconds later, at Silver Glen Rd. & Denker Rd. The closer/southern twin had appeared to lift (at least in terms of the condensation funnel) but those cloud tendrils were still spinning wildly. Meanwhile it's probably my best glimpse of the Plato Center-Elgin EF1 toward the left.

Two concurrent cyclonic tornadoes from distinct mesocyclones in such close proximity, one of those things that seems to defy the laws of physics (except, Pilger happened). That's the amount of low-level shear that was present over the Chicago metro on Wednesday.

[nwohweather]

Some marginal tornado chances around here tomorrow likely. I don't think the atmosphere will recover after the lunch time event enough for the evening to be rocking but if it does, we may require an ENH risk

[SolidIcewx]

2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Some marginal tornado chances around here tomorrow likely. I don't think the atmosphere will recover after the lunch time event enough for the evening to be rocking but if it does, we may require an ENH risk

East of I69 looks to be the hotspot especially just across the border. I’m hoping for some good ones to roll through. If supercells do form I’m going to go out. Right in the heart of it where I’m staying