CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 This is what I meant with my (partially) tounge-in-cheek observation; that predictability of severe weather in the summer is such that even as recently as the overnight hours, today was looking like a wash for severe potential north of I-80 in IL. The flip side of this of course, is that it makes it near impossible to plan chases/take PTO in advance. For me, it's local enough that I can head out with my 3A-noon shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 23 minutes ago, Lightning said: If only I had time to chase today. I would definitely promote getting your ass down here if you had the time lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 COD visible loop is stuck at 15:16Z (10:16 AM CDT) for some reason, anyone have another good source for satellite? ...at first I thought that recovery wasn't gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Really am curious to see how this afternoon unfolds. Lot's latest update is not un-spicy either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 16 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: COD visible loop is stuck at 15:16Z (10:16 AM CDT) for some reason, anyone have another good source for satellite? ...at first I thought that recovery wasn't gonna happen. lol same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: lol same Tropical Tidbits has a CONUS visible loop. I can't zoom in on the Midwest region but you can see some clearing nosing into NW IL.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=vis_swir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Found the NOAA one. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector.php?sat=G16§or=umv 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Looks like things are trying to get going along the IA/IL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Pouring down rain here at 3:30. Typically heavy rain at that hour is the nail in the coffin for severe weather later. Interested to see how much recovery we get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Clouds thinning out already in loop area. I usually have no faith in strong severe after atmosphere mixing and stabilization this late in the day, but will be interested to see if SPC/forecast models are onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 12, 2023 Author Share Posted July 12, 2023 CAM's are overdone on the environment, and likely their solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Helicity up to 550 in northern IL. Can we recover? LOT in 3 pm update warning of an increasing risk of tornadoes from I-80 north to WI line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 22 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: CAM's are overdone on the environment, and likely their solutions. You sure about that? RAP seems behind on recovery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 The SPC is a believer at least... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1506.html Mesoscale Discussion 1506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Areas affected...Northern Illinois and far southern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 122005Z - 122130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch is likely across northern Illinois and possibly southern Wisconsin by 21Z. DISCUSSION...The air mass is recovering rapidly across northern Illinois in the wake of the morning MCS. An EML, advecting eastward amid 40-50 knots of mid-level flow has cleared out cloud cover and allowed for surface heating across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Temperatures in this area have warmed into the low 80s with dewpoints remaining steady, or even climbing slightly, into the low 70s. Temperatures remain in the 60s across northern Illinois, but expect this warm front to lift quickly northeast through the evening as a result of surface heating north of this front and strengthening low-level flow in response to the deepening surface cyclone across eastern Iowa. Additional heating, combined with cooling temperatures aloft ahead of the approaching shortwave trough should result in 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by this evening across northern and northeast Illinois. This instability will be co-located with a strong, veering wind profile (sampled by the 20Z LOT VWP). Expect a similar wind profile (featuring 200+ m2/s2 0-500m SRH) to remain along the outflow boundary/composite front through the evening. Supercells are expected to form along this boundary as ascent increases ahead of a digging mid-level shortwave trough and within the left-exit region of the upper-level jet. Southerly winds ahead of the surface low will provide sufficient low-level streamwise vorticity for a tornado threat. However, any storms which remain along or slightly north/east of the boundary, where more backed surface winds will be present, should ingest much higher SRH and will pose a greater tornado threat and even the potential for a strong tornado. In addition, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible. A tornado watch is likely by 4pm to cover this threat. ..Bentley.. 07/12/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 SPC going to drop a tor watch across N IL according to the meso discussion. Also added a little pocket of enhanced risk over N IL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Really didn't have grilling time while dodging tornadoes on the menu today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 LOT afternoon update is spicy. Over the next few hours, explosive thunderstorm development appears likely near the Mississippi River with the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space supporting a quick evolution into several supercells. Damaging winds and hail are likely with any storm. Perhaps more concerning, Bunker`s right storm motion along the warm front will provide unusually long residence times within the high-magnitude low-level SRH environment, supporting an unusually high threat for episodic strong tornadoes (EF2+) for our local area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 10% hatched tor for Chi town and westward. Jeez. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: 10% hatched tor for Chi town and westward. Jeez. If something rides the warm front, it could get nasty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Check out LOTs new update, went from not un-spicy to ghost pepper extract 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Gonna sit tight in Davis Jct., IL for a little while.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Otw over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 12, 2023 Author Share Posted July 12, 2023 46 minutes ago, andyhb said: You sure about that? RAP seems behind on recovery. Recovery across North-Central and Northeast Illinois is limited and struggling, to say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 EHI presently at 5 over Chi town per WGN met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Recovery across North-Central and Northeast Illinois is limited and struggling, to say the least.Sun coming out in Davis Jct. Warm front must be here.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Sun coming out in Davis Jct. Warm front must be here. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Clearing here in Sycamore as well. Had some junk showers pop overhead as the front approached/moved through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Am I nuts or did dvn's radar just go down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Am I nuts or did dvn's radar just go down It did, right as things are starting to pop over there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Outflow boundary from last nights MCS reaching Mississippi now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Well a lot happened since my post this morning. Sheesh. Finally seeing filtered sunshine downtown Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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