SolidIcewx Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 It’s seems some model guidance is indicating a couple MCS to move through the Great Lakes region tomorrow into Thursday night. Perfect time for the weather pattern change and for us to finally get some regular complex’s for at least half of the sub forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 SPC has much of WI highlighted in the Day 4 outlook. They're the professionals, but I'm not really seeing it. NAM/GFS soundings for Wednesday look pretty mediocre. Could be some isolated wind/hail but not worthy of a Day 4 areal highlight IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Any thoughts on severe potential Tuesday/Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 12 hours ago, Malacka11 said: Any thoughts on severe potential Tuesday/Wednesday? Pretty weak north of wherever the second MCS on Wednesday tracks, which as @hawkeye_wx alluded to in another thread, will probably be further south than most of us would like. Sadly, just the fact that there's a pretty good chance for thunder is better than we've done for most of this year. Edit: NAM now has even the first MCS going south of the state line Wednesday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 Wasn't expecting to see two severe thunderstorm warnings and a tornado warning going in the thumb area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 Hoping I can Atleast get a decent rain out of one of these storms that seem to be firing everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 38 minutes ago, Harry said: Wasn't expecting to see two severe thunderstorm warnings and a tornado warning going in the thumb area. Just had one of the cells go through here. Quick heavy rain and some winds (nothing that strong here). I wasn't expecting the stronger ones to be up there either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 17 minutes ago, Lightning said: Just had one of the cells go through here. Quick heavy rain and some winds (nothing that strong here). I wasn't expecting the stronger ones to be up there either. As usual everything missing here left and right while same areas keep getting hit. Sigh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 11, 2023 Author Share Posted July 11, 2023 68MPH peak wind gust at MDW a short time ago, associated with a downburst.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Harry said: As usual everything missing here left and right while same areas keep getting hit. Sigh.. I got nicked by that cell. Hoping the next one gets here too. I have pretty much been in the same camp as you. Kinda feels like this lately: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Lightning said: I got nicked by that cell. Hoping the next one gets here too. I have pretty much been in the same camp as you. Kinda feels like this lately: Completely skipped over this side. Hope to finally get a good nocturnal light show at some point when the front comes back north. This summer has not been cooperative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 25 minutes ago, frostfern said: Completely skipped over this side. Hope to finally get a good nocturnal light show at some point when the front comes back north. This summer has not been cooperative. Tomorrow afternoon and evening looks interesting but I am just not bitting on it yet. Yes I agree it has been another summer of no nocturnals. Still have a good 2-3 months. March was my best snow month. Come on September 1986!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 47 minutes ago, Lightning said: Tomorrow afternoon and evening looks interesting but I am just not bitting on it yet. Yes I agree it has been another summer of no nocturnals. Still have a good 2-3 months. March was my best snow month. Come on September 1986!! Hopefully some action up there. I’m in Lima OH for awhile i think ima miss out lol. In the fields over here I seen some building off in the distance to the north while doing work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 23 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Hopefully some action up there. I’m in Lima OH for awhile i think ima miss out lol. In the fields over here I seen some building off in the distance to the north while doing work I think Lima will get something in the next few days too! You had something go through AA today of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 46 minutes ago, Lightning said: I think Lima will get something in the next few days too! You had something go through AA today of course! Yes the day after I leave too haha. Hopefully get tagged here I’ll go out to the corn fields to get good views at night if I have too. Will be home on the weekends so hopefully Mother Nature don’t do a tit for tat on me. I’ll make sure I try to get some good pictures as well due to the distances I can see now during the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 3 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: Yes the day after I leave too haha. Hopefully get tagged here I’ll go out to the corn fields to get good views at night if I have too. Will be home on the weekends so hopefully Mother Nature don’t do a tit for tat on me. I’ll make sure I try to get some good pictures as well due to the distances I can see now during the week. Here is one of the fun thunderheads this evening all around our area. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 At least it looks good for rain and thunder tomorrow morning. If this MCS were better-timed we'd have greater severe chances, but we'll take what we can get at this point. Pinning my hopes on the general level of predictability for severe weather in the summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 12, 2023 Author Share Posted July 12, 2023 53 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: At least it looks good for rain and thunder tomorrow morning. If this MCS were better-timed we'd have greater severe chances, but we'll take what we can get at this point. Timing isn't the biggest issue. Ridge placement and environment are, both of which favor the southwestern/southern portions of the sub-forum for this upcoming stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Enhanced risk upgrade for wind with the Iowa MCS, looks like a miss south again for I-80 and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 If the MCS dies quicker, still decent potential for severe in NIL, but looks very conditional. 12Z HRRR for example. Will need to watch incoming CAMs to see if they follow, and observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Chicago916 said: If the MCS dies quicker, still decent potential for severe in NIL, but looks very conditional. 12Z HRRR for example. Will need to watch incoming CAMs to see if they follow, and observations. MCS seems to be maintaining well. Probably no dice for any severe in N IL today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Spinups for Chicagoland and points east? Might have to take a road trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 The details... ...Northern IL/southern WI east to northwest OH/southern lower MI... Current MCS continues a general weakening trend based on IR cloud tops, radar trends and recent reports. Air mass recovery in the wake of the morning convection currently appears plausible, aided by a modestly enhanced low-level jet later this afternoon and evening. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/pockets of strong MLCAPE this afternoon, and coupled with 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear would result in a favorable parameter space for supercell development by late afternoon/early evening with all severe hazards possible. Will introduce a small 5 percent tornado probability area across this region, where forecast sounding hodograph structure appears most favorable for low-level rotation/tornado potential east of a weak surface low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 14 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Timing isn't the biggest issue. Ridge placement and environment are, both of which favor the southwestern/southern portions of the sub-forum for this upcoming stretch. That story never changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, IWXwx said: The details... ...Northern IL/southern WI east to northwest OH/southern lower MI... Current MCS continues a general weakening trend based on IR cloud tops, radar trends and recent reports. Air mass recovery in the wake of the morning convection currently appears plausible, aided by a modestly enhanced low-level jet later this afternoon and evening. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/pockets of strong MLCAPE this afternoon, and coupled with 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear would result in a favorable parameter space for supercell development by late afternoon/early evening with all severe hazards possible. Will introduce a small 5 percent tornado probability area across this region, where forecast sounding hodograph structure appears most favorable for low-level rotation/tornado potential east of a weak surface low. That definitely sounds plausible for me as well. Might shoot over to N Indiana or stay out since I’m at the eastern edge of that risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, IWXwx said: The details... ...Northern IL/southern WI east to northwest OH/southern lower MI... Current MCS continues a general weakening trend based on IR cloud tops, radar trends and recent reports. Air mass recovery in the wake of the morning convection currently appears plausible, aided by a modestly enhanced low-level jet later this afternoon and evening. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/pockets of strong MLCAPE this afternoon, and coupled with 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear would result in a favorable parameter space for supercell development by late afternoon/early evening with all severe hazards possible. Will introduce a small 5 percent tornado probability area across this region, where forecast sounding hodograph structure appears most favorable for low-level rotation/tornado potential east of a weak surface low. Hmmm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: That definitely sounds plausible for me as well. Might shoot over to N Indiana or stay out since I’m at the eastern edge of that risk Of course it's 2 counties to my south. Surprise level => 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 I’ll pull out the red carpet for everyone coming to chase IMBY. I gotta work in the newsroom today. Sounds like weather might become the top story but we need this light rain to push out ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Lightning said: Of course it's 2 counties to my south. Surprise level => 0% That sounds perfect to me. No risk of structural damage from a tornado to your property, but close enough to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 minute ago, IWXwx said: That sounds perfect to me. No risk of structural damage from a tornado to your property, but close enough to chase. If only I had time to chase today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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