2023 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

[TheClimateChanger]

Much of northeast Ohio now covered with tornado warnings.

[vpbob21]

Line was pretty meh coming through here.  Probably barely hit 40 mph.  Crazy lightning though.

[Tezeta]

I picked a great night to be driving through Ohio. Sitting at a loves west of Ashtabula just getting fuckin crushed

[frostfern]

2 hours ago, Lightning said:

That was one intense storm.  Large tree branches down all over the place.  Lost power as I watched one of the branches take out the power lines at my neighbor's house (100' away from my house). Watched my kayak and paddle board fly up in the air and into the lake.  Power of mother nature is just awesome.   Tomorrow is going to be a big clean up day!!!  I'll need to find my kayak and paddle board. .  Thankfully I have plenty of gas for the generator. 

Oh no!  You didn’t lose any trees did you?  There were trees down everywhere in southern Ionia CO.  

I ended up south of Portland and it was developing on top of me before I could find anywhere with a view.  The area was so woodsy and branches and limbs were everywhere.  When I got back to I-96 I thought I was home free but then there was 1.5 hour traffic delay from trees across I-96.  I didn’t dare try an alternate route.

There was a tornado warning back at my parent’s place and the sirens went off.  They went to the basement, but the possibly tornadic circulation was quite a ways northeast and none of us even lost power.

[SolidIcewx]

Storm damage is very impressive in the Monroe-DTW- Lansing  corridor

[nwohweather]

Looks like a tornado and some serious wind in Cleveland proper last night. Also I'm curious to see storm ratings from that tornado in Michigan, it was quite violent for about 10 minutes there

[Lightning]

11 hours ago, frostfern said:

Oh no!  You didn’t lose any trees did you?  There were trees down everywhere in southern Ionia CO.  

I ended up south of Portland and it was developing on top of me before I could find anywhere with a view.  The area was so woodsy and branches and limbs were everywhere.  When I got back to I-96 I thought I was home free but then there was 1.5 hour traffic delay from trees across I-96.  I didn’t dare try an alternate route.

There was a tornado warning back at my parent’s place and the sirens went off.  They went to the basement, but the possibly tornadic circulation was quite a ways northeast and none of us even lost power.

We are wondering if there was a funnel or small tornado came through.  Damage is not uniform / similar direction.  Some areas it is one direction other areas different direction.  There looks like a path as some houses on the lake are not even touched even though they have willows and cottonwood trees (no damage at all) while we have maples that are 1/2 gone now a willow that was leveled by us.  Likely will not get power back until Sunday at the earliest.  AT&T tower is out so me cell service is sporadic (no sure when this will even post).

[frostfern]

4 hours ago, Lightning said:

We are wondering if there was a funnel or small tornado came through.  Damage is not uniform / similar direction.  Some areas it is one direction other areas different direction.  There looks like a path as some houses on the lake are not even touched even though they have willows and cottonwood trees (no damage at all) while we have maples that are 1/2 gone now a willow that was leveled by us.  Likely will not get power back until Sunday at the earliest.  AT&T tower is out so me cell service is sporadic (no sure when this will even post).

Where do you live?  It seems there are only two locations being evaluated in the GRR region, Webberville in Ingham County and Belmont in Kent County.  Reviewing the radar loops both of them were associated with brief supercells being absorbed into the line from the front.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Webberville got super lucky, the worst part of it went through wooded and cropped areas with insane ground scouring, but even then the city part of it was given an EF-2

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Michigans first killer tornado in years 

[Natester]

Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Michigans first killer tornado in years 

Actually, Michigan had a killer tornado last year also. (Gaylord EF3 on May 20, 2022)

[Stebo]

Sorry for not being around yesterday for the event, it was a bit busy here at work.

To recap the event tornado wise as of this moment though:

EF2 Williamston that was rated an EF1 in Fowlerville once it got into DTX's CWA

EF1 Comstock Park

EF1 Belleville

EF1 Newport

EF1 South Rockwood

EF1 Gibralter

EF0 Canton

Not confirmed yet but will be is a tornado near Milan, I have seen drone images from that, concentric path through the fields near US23.

[Torchageddon]

Michigan's no EF4+ streak is safe!

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Webberville got super lucky, the worst part of it went through wooded and cropped areas with insane ground scouring, but even then the city part of it was given an EF-2

On radar it looked at least as strong as the Gaylord tornado last year.  Only a tiny part of that path was rated EF-3.  The trailer park wreckage was horrific and deadly, but it was only rated EF-2 since that’s just what happens to trailers in a tornado.

[Lightning]

4 hours ago, frostfern said:

Where do you live?  It seems there are only two locations being evaluated in the GRR region, Webberville in Ingham County and Belmont in Kent County.  Reviewing the radar loops both of them were associated with brief supercells being absorbed into the line from the front.

If you look up Spicers Cider Mill on Clyde Rd. I live a bit NE of it.  We spent all day cleaning up.   Still have some work to do tomorrow.  When I can get back online (not on my phone) I will post some pictures.

[thomp2mp]

52 minutes ago, Lightning said:

If you look up Spicers Cider Mill on Clyde Rd. I live a bit NE of it.  We spent all day cleaning up.   Still have some work to do tomorrow.  When I can get back online (not on my phone) I will post some pictures.

looking at the archived radar data on GR2A, looks like a brief spinup might've happened around that area. Spicer's is the red marker.

[Lightning]

16 minutes ago, thomp2mp said:

looking at the archived radar data on GR2A, looks like a brief spinup might've happened around that area. Spicer's is the red marker.

Awesome thanks for this!!!

[thomp2mp]

3 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Awesome thanks for this!!!

for future reference, if you've got GR2Analyst you can load archive files from the NEXRAD Inventory on this page for any of the NEXRAD sites.

[SolidIcewx]

Found out the tornado lifted literally 1000ft from my house. Glad it was only EF0 I remember hearing a roaring over the phone with my fiancé and daughter. Quite the experience. Not only that 3 tornados in the close vicinity of my parents down in the Rockwood area. These storms were too close to home. Gave me even more respect for them. I hope for a quick recovery for everyone involved. Could have been horrible if these storms stayed discrete.. 

[frostfern]

19 hours ago, Lightning said:

If you look up Spicers Cider Mill on Clyde Rd. I live a bit NE of it.  We spent all day cleaning up.   Still have some work to do tomorrow.  When I can get back online (not on my phone) I will post some pictures.

I was looking at archive from RadarScope.  It costs like $15 per month for the Pro version, but I only upgrade before a good event then cancel the next month.  That's cool that thomp2mp found a site that offers it for free.

It looks like there were broadly rotating supercells out ahead of the main downdraft / wind-shift line that was moving south.  The data shows rotation passing over the area, but it looks like its mostly ahead of the downdraft where the damaging winds are shown coming from the north.  Was there two different events, one from the south, then another from the north?  The exact time would be helpful. 

I think if there was a tornado in your area it was probably a shallow gust-nado type that the radar might not detect.  The way the line was absorbing rotating elements definitely gave the wind a boost in some areas.  The Williamston and Comstock Park tornadoes were both a result of downdraft-dominant segments catching up to and absorbing supercells.  I normally think cell mergers are not helpful for tornado formation, but in this case it looks like they caused a temporary boost.  The mergers did limit the track lengths though, thankfully.  There probably was enough shear and overall energy for a major long track tornado if a more discrete cell had formed somewhere and remained separate.

[frostfern]

I'm kind of annoyed I didn't just stay home now.  I missed a really insane positive CG barrage right over city.  My dad told me the picture frames in the house were all crooked because the thunder shook the entire house.  The tornadic portion was a ways north, but there was apparently a lot of lighting bolts well to the south.  Everyone has commented the thunder was unusually loud and seemed different from normal.  I wish I knew some way to get archived lighting data.

[Lightning]

5 hours ago, frostfern said:

I was looking at archive from RadarScope.  It costs like $15 per month for the Pro version, but I only upgrade before a good event then cancel the next month.  That's cool that thomp2mp found a site that offers it for free.

It looks like there were broadly rotating supercells out ahead of the main downdraft / wind-shift line that was moving south.  The data shows rotation passing over the area, but it looks like its mostly ahead of the downdraft where the damaging winds are shown coming from the north.  Was there two different events, one from the south, then another from the north?  The exact time would be helpful. 

I think if there was a tornado in your area it was probably a shallow gust-nado type that the radar might not detect.  The way the line was absorbing rotating elements definitely gave the wind a boost in some areas.  The Williamston and Comstock Park tornadoes were both a result of downdraft-dominant segments catching up to and absorbing supercells.  I normally think cell mergers are not helpful for tornado formation, but in this case it looks like they caused a temporary boost.  The mergers did limit the track lengths though, thankfully.  There probably was enough shear and overall energy for a major long track tornado if a more discrete cell had formed somewhere and remained separate.

The was cell on top of us we had very strong winds southerly in nature and then the line coming in in from the west northwest merged things swirled and northerly strong winds.  When they merged on us the winds came from various directions.  Looking around the is a very distinct path about a 1/4 mile long of damage running ENE.  Tree damage is multidirectional in this area.  Today we finished cleaning up all the mess.  Burned a ton of leaves, branches and wood.

[Lightning]

5 hours ago, frostfern said:

I'm kind of annoyed I didn't just stay home now.  I missed a really insane positive CG barrage right over city.  My dad told me the picture frames in the house were all crooked because the thunder shook the entire house.  The tornadic portion was a ways north, but there was apparently a lot of lighting bolts well to the south.  Everyone has commented the thunder was unusually loud and seemed different from normal.  I wish I knew some way to get archived lighting data.

Had that happen to me before chasing.  Now I just stay home unless I chase storms several miles away that clearly will not hit MBY. 

Yes the thunders were house shaking.  Several friends and neighbors have commented about it.  2 nights in a row of lack of sleep.

Sorry if my typing is a bit out of sorts.  Very tired as it has been a long few days.  And I am still 100%on my phone.  Hopefully they will fix the multiple power lines down (can't wait to send pics) tomorrow.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Wednesday could be our first chance at some severe in a bit 

[CheeselandSkies]

I guess I'll be the one to dust off this thread, since no one else has. Day 4 outlook includes most of Iowa as well as portions of NE/KS/MO. Details/ceiling still pretty up in the air IMO.

06Z GFS also hints at further potential into the following week, but it's pretty much on an island with that.

[A-L-E-K]

just saw fantasy range nam for iowa...nice

[CheeselandSkies]

34 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

just saw fantasy range nam for iowa...nice

Yikes, that is downright nuts for Iowa Saturday evening.

Late September is the new May?

[hawkeye_wx]

A strong cell passing just nw of Cedar Rapids has been tornado-warned for a while.  The sirens have gone off here a couple times, even though CR is not in the path.

[CheeselandSkies]

4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

A strong cell passing just nw of Cedar Rapids has been tornado-warned for a while.  The sirens have gone off here a couple times, even though CR is not in the path.

Yeah, based on reports/photos that was a legit supercell with a brief tornado. Probably more impressive than anything that will happen in Iowa tomorrow, when it's actually in the tornado risk contours.

[cyclone77]

29 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, based on reports/photos that was a legit supercell with a brief tornado. Probably more impressive than anything that will happen in Iowa tomorrow, when it's actually in the tornado risk contours.

Any storm west of Cedar Rapids and south of Waterloo that isn't encompassed within a line is worth chasing.  Seems like any birdfart storm in that area goes apeshit and produces or nearly produces lol.