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2023 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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They just went to "large and extremely dangerous" PDS wording.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
937 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Livingston County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 1015 PM EDT.
    
* At 937 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located near Williamston, or near Fowlerville, moving east at
  40 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
  Fowlerville around 945 PM EDT.
  Howell and Oak Grove around 955 PM EDT.
  Brighton around 1010 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Parkers Corners, Conway Township and Deerfield Township.

This includes the following highways...
 I-96 between mile markers 125 and 146.
 US-23 near mile marker 60.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4276 8402 4276 8377 4253 8375 4257 8414
      4275 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 277DEG 35KT 4266 8419

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

KDK

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Mesoscale Discussion 2042
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0833 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

   Areas affected...Northern Indiana...Northern Ohio...western
   Pennsylvania...western New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 250133Z - 250300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of WW656 is likely
   shortly.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of severe storms continues to move
   southward out of Michigan and across Lake Erie. Consensus within
   hi-res guidance is for this line to continue to track southward into
   portions of northern Indiana, northern Ohio, western Pennsylvania,
   western New York within the next couple of hours. Downstream of this
   line, there is a gradient of MLCAPE around 1500-3500 J/kg and deep
   layer shear 35-45 kts. The environment will continue to be
   supportive of severe storms and risk of damaging winds along with
   isolated embedded circulations and a tornado or two. A downstream
   watch will be needed shortly.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/25/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

   LAT...LON   41518508 41958507 42108334 42718217 43268107 43227964
               43187928 42957884 42657845 42047859 41647892 41267957
               40838018 40478091 40358120 40378168 40478235 40658301
               40868378 41138471 41518508 

 

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but now its back to a regular warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
945 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

MIC093-250215-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230825T0215Z/
Livingston MI-
945 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
LIVINGSTON COUNTY...

At 945 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Fowlerville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Howell and Oak Grove around 955 PM EDT.
  Brighton around 1010 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Parkers Corners.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 657
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   950 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northeast Indiana
     Northern and Central Ohio
     Northwest Pennsylvania
     Lake Erie

   * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 950 PM
     until 300 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
       mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms over southern
   Lower Michigan will track southeastward across the watch area
   tonight.  Damaging wind gusts are the main concern, with a risk of
   significant wind damage at times.  A tornado or two is also
   possible.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
   statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles north
   northwest of Fort Wayne IN to 25 miles north of Franklin PA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 655...WW 656...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   30035.

   ...Hart
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What did you think of that lightning last night?

 

Uhh... more please! :) It was enough to get my 4 year old to run into our room. I wish I'd been able to stay awake for the whole storm, it sounded really windy too. 

Hoping tonight will be a repeat, especially with such a high dewpoint (74 degrees at 10pm!). Where did you see the storm from? I'm up near Lewis Center.

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