Lightning Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 One concern I have is the cloud cover is not burning off very fast at all. Most of southern MI is still cloudy and it is 3PM. I was hoping the sun would be out a bit more by now across southern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 1:04 AM, SolidIcewx said: Crazy southwest moving MCS. Can anyone explain why? Based off outflow? Expand Looking back this particular run by the HRRR was pretty darn close (of course not perfect) to what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 6:56 PM, Lightning said: One concern I have is the cloud cover is not burning off very fast at all. Most of southern MI is still cloudy and it is 3PM. I was hoping the sun would be out a bit more by now across southern MI. Expand Very sunny here in Toledo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 7:00 PM, Lightning said: Looking back this particular run by the HRRR was pretty darn close (of course not perfect) to what happened Expand I know right. It was too outlandish for me but somehow hit the bullseye in the dark. I spent some time earlier going over the radar history all I gotta say is dayyyum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 6:56 PM, Lightning said: One concern I have is the cloud cover is not burning off very fast at all. Most of southern MI is still cloudy and it is 3PM. I was hoping the sun would be out a bit more by now across southern MI. Expand driving into s Michigan from Fort Wayne, very sunny and car says 93... feels disgusting out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 I have time to chase. Just waiting. The sun is coming out and the dewpoint is in the lower 80s with mist in the air. Feels like walking through a warm wet washcloth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 There is initiation in Wisconsin now. A good sign that the cap is breakable. I wonder if SPC will extend the risk there. Hopefully they are writing up a mesoscale discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 8:25 PM, frostfern said: There is initiation in Wisconsin now. A good sign that the cap is breakable. I wonder if SPC will extend the risk there. Hopefully they are writing up a mesoscale discussion. Expand They already did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 I don't know how I missed it. There is some cumulus popping up in the middle of Lake Michigan now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 I don't love how this looks like a 9 PM - 1 AM event. Definitely some tornado chances looking at the soundings as we go into sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 8:45 PM, frostfern said: I don't know how I missed it. There is some cumulus popping up in the middle of Lake Michigan now. Expand Firing east of Ludington now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 8:07 PM, nvck said: driving into s Michigan from Fort Wayne, very sunny and car says 93... feels disgusting out Expand Love this weather!! Feels great to me. Yep as expected the sun is pushing into southern MI mostly SW MI and extreme SE MI. As SPC points out: Visible satellite imagery has shown significant erosion of the stratus across southwest Lower MI as the differential heating zone becomes an effective warm front amid strong southwesterly surface winds. Dewpoints are now in the upper 70s with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s across southwest Lower MI. Temperatures are still in the upper 70s/low 80s farther north and east, with lower dewpoints there as well. Even with the more moist and warmer conditions, some convective inhibition currently still remains across southwest Lower MI, evidenced by the billow clouds on visible imagery. Additional heating, coupled with low-level moisture convergence over the region, may be able to overcome this convective inhibition, promoting warm-sector thunderstorm development. There is some uncertainty regarding this scenario, but any warm-sector storms that do form would likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 3:39 PM, A-L-E-K said: Riding the nest obv Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 There is a subtle wave at 700 mb over eastern WI. The 700 mb temp drops slightly just ahead of it indicating lift. I think we have to wait for that to cross the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 My guess is the stuff around Milwaukee will struggle to move out over the lake because of lake breeze divergence at peak heating, but new convection will form along 131 just north of I-96 around 7 or 8 pm and move southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Can see towers exploding to my north 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Waiting for the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 So much cape right now. Wonder if this thing is going to have the power to make it down to Columbus like ILN is alluding to a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 10:03 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Waiting for the watch Expand WI and LM ... Sadly not Lower MI yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 10:17 PM, Lightning said: WI and LM ... Sadly not Lower MI yet Expand There we go. Lower MI Severe Storm Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 View over the lake. Love standing in the rain during such warm temps. “Marble size” hail being reported over skywarn in Racine. Nothing much here I’m just south of it. Constant thunder but unfortunately it’s mostly hidden cloud to cloud. Edit: Racine Airport reported 54mph wind gust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Lots of initiation starting in Michigan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Feeling decent about getting clipped here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Should fill in soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 11:10 PM, A-L-E-K said: Feeling decent about getting clipped here Expand Can’t tell if this stuff will crap out this evening or not. I’m not feeling as optimistic as you even though it’s not far off at all. Just want a light show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Feeling good here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Wasn't expecting it to be this close. Outflow bout to knock the heat down a peg or three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 10:59 PM, TheNiño said: View over the lake. Love standing in the rain during such warm temps. “Marble size” hail being reported over skywarn in Racine. Nothing much here I’m just south of it. Constant thunder but unfortunately it’s mostly hidden cloud to cloud. Edit: Racine Airport reported 54mph wind gust. Expand That storm out east had legit supercell structure on radar for a while, even a distinct velocity couplet as it moved out over the lake just north of Kenosha. SMW for waterspouts was put out for it, even though no tornado warning over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Speaking of which, possible TDS near Northview, MI. I can't attach both images but it is (or was, as of this scan) colocated with an apparent couplet on velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 25, 2023 Author Share Posted August 25, 2023 On 8/25/2023 at 12:26 AM, CheeselandSkies said: Speaking of which, possible TDS near Northview, MI.100% for sure there.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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