CheeselandSkies Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 Also, 5 days in a row with a SLGT+ highlight from SPC. August > May. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 Quote All severe hazards appear possible on Sunday from portions of eastern IA through southern WI/MI into much of IL/IN, northern KY, and western OH, as a linear convective system moves east across the region. Tornado potential likely will be focused closer to the surface low track, and along a warm front extending from the low east/southeast across parts of southern WI/MI into northern IL/IN. The system will continue east on Monday, impacting portions of the upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians vicinity. The surface low will be shifting further northeast into Canada. Nevertheless, large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough, and moderate vertical shear atop very moist and unstable boundary layer will continue to support severe convection ahead of the eastward advancing cold front. Damaging winds will likely be the greatest concern on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 GFS is still vastly more progressive than the other models. Latest (06Z) run has the low over Milwaukee at 18Z Sunday, while 06Z NAM has it west of Mason City, IA at that time (as far out as it goes). 00Z Euro (can't see 06Z on free Pivotal) has it pretty much right over Mason City. Again this does seem to be a known bias of the GFS, so not surprising SPC is siding with other guidance. Euro also deepens the low 2MB from 18Z Sunday to 00Z Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 36 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: GFS is still vastly more progressive than the other models. Latest (06Z) run has the low over Milwaukee at 18Z Sunday, while 06Z NAM has it west of Mason City, IA at that time (as far out as it goes). 00Z Euro (can't see 06Z on free Pivotal) has it pretty much right over Mason City. Again this does seem to be a known bias of the GFS, so not surprising SPC is siding with other guidance. Euro also deepens the low 2MB from 18Z Sunday to 00Z Monday... And in other news, water is wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 6 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Also, 5 days in a row with a SLGT+ highlight from SPC. August > May. Thanks to the constant death ridge over the SW parts NA, there’s a subtropical jet that normally isn’t there this time of year. I have seen that jet appear in summer from time to time other years, but never this consistent. Between this and the neverending blocking from May through the first half of June, I don’t know how people can say its normal climatology. These patterns just didn’t used to lock in for such long periods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 GFS still refuses to budge. It doesn’t even show a good closed low until it’s moving away. Really hope the ECMWF doesn’t lose it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 Had my first bad storm in years, it was borderline svr but not officially. What I noticed is the rare direction it was coming in from: NNW. My best LES bands also come from that vector. 580 lightning strikes in less than a hour, 90 during 5 min intervals at peak (9pm). There was actual structure as it approached with defined shelf features and inflow. The lightning was all cc but very bright and flicker-like. The ambiance was amazing as that fat cell came in, haven't felt excited for a storm in so long. I could hear pingers as I got large pea-sized hail for a min. Largest hail here so far this decade, I got larger Mar 2012. Wind was decent but nothing crazy. I got nearly an inch within mins. There were stronger hail cores not far from me just like Sep 7 2021. Best storm of 2023 beating Apr 5 overnight. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Friday evening bears keeping a close eye on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted August 11, 2023 Share Posted August 11, 2023 interesting d3&5 outlooks for the ohio (especially cincinnati) area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted August 11, 2023 Share Posted August 11, 2023 2 hours ago, nvck said: interesting d3&5 outlooks for the ohio (especially cincinnati) area Perfect… in time for me when I’ll be in Columbus again. The lightning last night was awesome and great to see. Rain line just a stones throw to my north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 Perry, Michigan was hit by a tornado. Pretty decent damage in half the town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 Best storm of the year at home for me (beating July 28 because the lightning was just as frequent but more visible, plus we had a long-duration blast of ~40 MPH gust front winds). Heaviest part of the core with probable hail missed me to the SW. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 System was a big dud for the northeast half of the DVN area. The models did a good job advertising this over the past few days, but SPC continued to insist on a slight for the whole area. Not sure what they were looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 More cells moving in from the west, small but still prolific lightning producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 12 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Perry, Michigan was hit by a tornado. Pretty decent damage in half the town. Hot damn is all I gotta say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 30 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Hot damn is all I gotta say Just had my best CG of the year for me. Today's little tstorm a few minutes ago put one about 300' off my deck. Striking the lake. More importantly I was looking right at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cartier God Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 Was on this storm for nearly an hour and a half last night, watching it change from a weakly rotating updraft base to a large and damaging tornado as it entered Perry. Followed it from the west on Bath rd, witnessed lofted debris and power flashes as it crossed Ruess rd. Will post more pics after work 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 so this is a confirmed tornado. I actually have to drive through that town sometimes Quote ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL HARDIN COUNTY... At 1254 PM EDT, radar indicated that a tornado-producing storm was located near Marseilles, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. At 12:50 PM, a tornado was reported east of Kenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 Had a severe thunderstorm warning for my area with 80mph destructive winds and 2" hail. The warning came blaring over my cellphone but no sirens sounded. The warning specifically mentioned my town so I herded the wife and dog to the basement in case a tree decided to come down on the house. Fortunately the worst of the storm looks like it passed just north of me. Currently under a Flash Flood Warning. The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Erie County in north central Ohio... * Until 215 PM EDT. * At 138 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Sandusky, moving east at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR SOUTHERN SANDUSKY AND HURON. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Locations impacted include... Sandusky, Bloomingville, Sandusky South and Fairview Lanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 another tornado warning in northern Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 same tornado warning Quote * At 259 PM EDT, a tornado producing storm was located near Loudonville, or 17 miles southeast of Mansfield, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...A confirmed tornado occured in Richland County south of Mansfield at 2:44 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 This is by Akron/Kent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 Monday's looking like a repeat of this past Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cartier God Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 Yesterday’s chase started after leaving a party at my boss’s house around 6:30. Storms began to fire southwest of the warm front around 6:40, looking pretty anemic at first. Still on the fence about chasing, I drove to Staples in Frandor to stop and check mesoanalysis. Soon after I noticed a small cell east of Dewitt that was broadly rotating on radar. I drove north to get a view of the storm at 7:10. Shortly after I caught a glimpse of the distant updraft base.As I approached the storm from the southwest, the RFD clear slot became more apparent, and a broadly rotating wall cloud could be seen.After heading east to get a better view, I witnessed the old updraft base move off to the north and begin to occlude. Off to the south, a new and more vigorous updraft was wrapping up. I cautiously drove east behind the storm. After the trees parted, I was greeted with a closer view of the mesocyclone looking ENE on Bath Rd.The RFD surge was mesmerizing. A tornado looked imminent. I noticed wispy funnels emerging from the mesocyclone about 3 miles west of perry accompanied by rapid upward motion. I continued east as my view of the ground became obscured by trees. I stayed west of I-69 not wanting to risk getting too close or missing out on the storm structure. A weak tornado was visible at this point, lofting small debris.The funnel quickly widened and intensified after crossing I-69.I repositioned and gained sight of the tornado after stopping at the intersection of Bath and Ruess. I watched the now uncondensed funnel cross Ruess Rd, with a brief power power flash and some swirling debris noted. I continued east and witnessed a few more ragged lowerings before calling it a night and heading home at dusk.. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 14, 2023 Share Posted August 14, 2023 Marginal pulled back along WI/IL line on Day 2 update, to go along with tomorrow's rain event. Most of IN/OH/SW LM included as well. 5/5/2 W/H/, so far. I think low timing is just a little too fast for us, though. It's gone through and low-level winds are veered by the time daytime heating kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 14, 2023 Share Posted August 14, 2023 Pingers and an absolute deluge here right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Is anyone else suddenly getting their inbox flooded with "new reply" emails regarding this, or any other threads on this forum? It started for me a couple days ago, and they were all for replies that were several hours to several days old. I changed my follow preferences to "no email" (which I thought it was already set to, hence why I wasn't getting the emails before) and it continued, so I unfollowed the thread entirely and it still continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: Is anyone else suddenly getting their inbox flooded with "new reply" emails regarding this, or any other threads on this forum? It started for me a couple days ago, and they were all for replies that were several hours to several days old. I changed my follow preferences to "no email" (which I thought it was already set to, hence why I wasn't getting the emails before) and it continued, so I unfollowed the thread entirely and it still continues. I haven’t personally. That is really weird I’ll keep out for it if it does happen to myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 2 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: I haven’t personally. That is really weird I’ll keep out for it if it does happen to myself Seems to have stopped for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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