Harry Perry Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 2:59 AM, CheeselandSkies said: Nothing like a 4/26/91 analog over your house in Wisconsin...in late July. Convective mode likely won't allow for something like that, but wow. Expand Wow is right.. hell of a sounding. Never know, tomorrows storm mode could start off with some SUPs, likely nothing like the Andover event but the ingredients are definitely there. Would expect a bump to ENH for most of us overnight and tornado probs increased a bit. I was looking at my local sounding and have a ton of hail matches. Hard pass on all of that nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 for those who like insane CAPE 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 3:25 AM, Chinook said: for those who like insane CAPE Expand The ILX sounding near Springfield IL had over 6600J/kg on this evening's sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 ILX always seems to have higher SBCAPE, lot of corn nearby? Some of the highest readings I’ve ever witnessed came from ILX where the dew points always seem to be higher than surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 3:45 AM, Harry Perry said: ILX always seems to have higher SBCAPE, lot of corn nearby? Some of the highest readings I’ve ever witnessed came from ILX where the dew points always seem to be higher than surrounding areas. Expand Good old corn sweat, central Illinois has a ton of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Feeling optimistic about tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 3:45 AM, Harry Perry said: ILX always seems to have higher SBCAPE, lot of corn nearby? Some of the highest readings I’ve ever witnessed came from ILX where the dew points always seem to be higher than surrounding areas. Expand ILX is on the edge of town surrounded by corn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 This storm has constant flickering. Seeing probably 5-10 a second. Not sure if I've seen so much lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 5:03 AM, MNstorms said: This storm has constant flickering. Seeing probably 5-10 a second. Not sure if I've seen so much lightning. Expand Yeah that's a very prolific lightning producer to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Looks like round one is barreling this way already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Crapvection outflow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 I don’t know if the RAP forecast of 3000 MLCAPE GRR office mentioned has the current hulking cold pool over WI and ongoing convection over Illinois. Its great if it completely collapses and suppresses convection during the heating hours, but it’s always hard to recover here without strong southwesterly flow. Are they really still thinking its going to hit 92 at GRR? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Did not expect the severe storms in Illinois overnight. Thought if we were going to get anything tonight it would be the northern WI complex diving south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 06Z 3K NAM seems to have a little better handle on the current IL stuff (although I think still weaker with it than reality) than the HRRR, and it fires discrete sups in southwestern WI by 22Z. Not sure why SPC would introduce a 2% region at 1730Z yesterday, only to remove it with the first SWODY1 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 9:15 AM, CheeselandSkies said: 06Z 3K NAM seems to have a little better handle on the current IL stuff (although I think still weaker with it than reality) than the HRRR, and it fires discrete sups in southwestern WI by 22Z. Not sure why SPC would introduce a 2% region at 1730Z yesterday, only to remove it with the first SWODY1 today. Expand It will be I-94 and south again unless the MCV that develops can draw the juice back north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 1:33 AM, Stebo said: If we don't get any junk convection over IL tonight Expand It's like mother nature seen this and said hold my beer..... Side note it still amazes me how summertime convection can make humans and computers look completely clueless when it comes to forecasting even 12 hrs in advance, but in the same sense it wouldn't be as fun if we knew exactly what would happen would it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 9:34 AM, frostfern said: It will be I-94 and south again unless the MCV that develops can draw the juice back north. Expand Which is fine by me since I-94 runs right through Madison. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 9:47 AM, outflow said: It's like mother nature seen this and said hold my beer..... Side note it still amazes me how summertime convection can make humans and computers look completely clueless when it comes to forecasting even 12 hrs in advance, but in the same sense it wouldn't be as fun if we knew exactly what would happen would it Expand You can easily recover from junkvection overhead at 6:00am. Non-overturned airmass advects in from the SW by evening. Being downstream of junkvection is worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 I'd gladly take this "junkvection" as it's full of lighting. Sucks to always be so close but miss out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 lil early to be bummed imo 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 11:02 AM, A-L-E-K said: lil early to be bummed imo Expand Yeah, the sun is barely up. If it were noon I’d be sad, too. But it’s 7:20. Let it ride. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Clear sky just west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 miss always on the table but feel p confident in the instability parameter, should be extreme imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Possible severe storms this morning was not expecting it but I’ll take it. It’s a break from the heat. And this evening I’ll be home in MI to experience what happens there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 11:30 AM, A-L-E-K said: miss always on the table but feel p confident in the instability parameter, should be extreme imo Expand NASA Rocket Fuel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 11:39 AM, SolidIcewx said: NASA Rocket Fuel Expand Or nitromethane if you’ve ever seen an NHRA race Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 11:57 AM, nwohweather said: Or nitromethane if you’ve ever seen an NHRA race Expand Like throwing the element cesium in water 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 I don’t know, not throwing the towel in yet, but I fully expect temps to be overdone at minimum today.. thus keeping instability tamed. This crapvection is naturally going to inhibit some of what could’ve been this afternoons potential. Also… that’s a ton of debris clouds - a good 6-8 hours worth moving ever so slowly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 12:07 PM, Harry Perry said: I don’t know, not throwing the towel in yet, but I fully expect temps to be overdone at minimum today.. thus keeping instability tamed. This crapvection is naturally going to inhibit some of what could’ve been this afternoons potential. Also… that’s a ton of debris clouds - a good 6-8 hours worth moving ever so slowly east. Expand That’s why I’m hoping it starts dissipating over the next couple hours and clouds thin out and burn off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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