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2023 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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This little cloud has an ongoing high end EF1 tornado in this pic! I've never seen such a tiny little tornadic supercell!

2082924768_20230712_182109-Copy.thumb.png.34a83db65a17a8b01031b8ff0934d71a.png
 

Yesterday was a frustrating chase overall, but I'm glad I was able to get a view on this glorified cumulus cloud inside the concrete jungle. I ended up very close to the Elgin tornadoes but I couldn't get a good view due to all the buildings and trees.

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Yesterday was a very interesting impromptu chase for me. Expectations were very low of course since the last chase I went on I accidentally zero metered, and I had every intention of playing it cool. First I copied our esteemed homie @CheeselandSkiesand drove NW an hour to Davis Junction -to the complex that eventually produced the DuPage county naders. I bailed on it after 45 to head home/see if I could catch one of the southern storms (if more developed). The entire drive back on 88 I was moving parallel to initial target storm, and I kept fighting to ignore the feeling that it looked like it might start doing things soon. Then, just a few miles before my exit the Elgin area got warned. It was impressive how similar the velocity signature on that farther north storm looked to the one that I had been watching so, despite having to pee like a motherfucker, I blasted north on Kirk. I think I had just seen the remnants of the bigger tornado that people had filmed -including @CheeselandSkies- when I realized that a third area of sketchy velocity readings was developing directly NW of me. I pulled over and let it pass ahead and then tried to get behind it. Obviously traffic was dog shit so I couldn't actually keep up per se but I did manage a glimpse at what looked like a wall cloud with a little rotating rope off to the side. Called it after that because I simply couldn't keep up and my bladder was about to explode.

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National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
230 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

.DISCUSSION...

Moderate instability has built up, with 18z SPC mesoscale analysis
indicating 1500 J/kg of MLcape and 2500+ J/kg. Jet streak/40+ knots
of 0-6 KM bulk shear aligned over/around I-94 corridor, presenting
the elevated concern for severe storms, as the Lake Michigan shadow
push has begun and some activity is attempting to go up. Will need to
be leery of the backed flow near Lake Erie to increase low level
shear and lead to potential rotation. Some enhanced low level
convergence and enough 0-1 km bulk shear (up to 15 knots) over the
Thumb region to allow for rotation and more organized activity as
well, with possible tornadoes indicated.

Once the scattered strong-severe storms/surface based activity
dwindles early this evening, still a muddled forecast for tonight
into Saturday, as 12z hires solutions are all over the place with
convection, or lack there of if you believe certain solutions.
Unfortunately, with the amount of upper level shortwaves seen on the
water vapory imagery tracking through northern Plains/Midwest, it is
not surprising and difficult to latch on to the main/dominant player
as we work through the diurnal cycle. Ultimately, with moderate
southwest low level winds and solid negative showalter index values
persisting, will lean toward the redevelopment of convection tonight
within the backdrop of upper level ridge building into between the
Central/Eastern Great Lakes region toward Saturday morning, as
shortwave energy/lead PV advection tracks in from the western Ohio
Valley. With 700 MB dew pts rising into the low-mid single numbers,
excessive/heavy rainfall becomes an increasing concern as we head
into Saturday as well. 12z Regional GEM seems to have the general
flavor of the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. With the morning
shower/thunderstorm activity slow to exit, anticipating afternoon
instability to be low, with mlcapes generally under 1000 J/kg, which
is a good thing as wind shear appears to be moderate, with 35+ knots
of 0-6 km bulk shear to work with. Day 2 out of SPC has dropped the
marginal risk of severe storms for bulk of southeast Michigan, which
is fine as long as that morning activity verifies.

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