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2023 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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Lapse rates suck come Monday, but despite the poor instability, I expect at least an isolated severe threat to materialize in the Ohio Valley and potentially up to the southern Lakes.  Very strong wind fields with good signals for a line or broken line of storms moving rapidly across the region.  Damaging winds would certainly be the main threat, but I wouldn't rule out an isolated tornado.  Directional shear isn't the greatest but there's some modest turning in the profiles, while speed shear is very good.  This may get going relatively early in the day on Monday as well... maybe even potentially carrying over from the Plains.

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A couple things.

The better instability (though still modest) is actually progged to trail behind the wind shift/main area of convection.  Would obviously be better if that were more aligned.

That being said, the more I look at it, the more I'm thinking that this may just be one semi-continuous severe threat from the Plains into our sub without really having any kind of long break.  Already mentioned the instability concerns but on the plus side, we'll have a deepening surface low through Sunday night and into Monday morning.  That should force the low levels to remain mixed well-enough and minimize any stable layer at the surface as the main line/broken line approaches a given area.  Also not dealing with any snowcover meltoff in the warm sector.  

Don't have sub-980 mb lows rolling into Iowa every day.  Anomalous setups don't guarantee anomalous results, but it sure raises the possibility.  So despite the timing being poor and issues with instability, I think there's a decent chance that some severe threat is maintained through overnight Sunday into Monday.

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22 hours ago, Hoosier said:

A couple things.

The better instability (though still modest) is actually progged to trail behind the wind shift/main area of convection.  Would obviously be better if that were more aligned.

That being said, the more I look at it, the more I'm thinking that this may just be one semi-continuous severe threat from the Plains into our sub without really having any kind of long break.  Already mentioned the instability concerns but on the plus side, we'll have a deepening surface low through Sunday night and into Monday morning.  That should force the low levels to remain mixed well-enough and minimize any stable layer at the surface as the main line/broken line approaches a given area.  Also not dealing with any snowcover meltoff in the warm sector.  

Don't have sub-980 mb lows rolling into Iowa every day.  Anomalous setups don't guarantee anomalous results, but it sure raises the possibility.  So despite the timing being poor and issues with instability, I think there's a decent chance that some severe threat is maintained through overnight Sunday into Monday.

As I just said in the other thread...this is a powerhouse system, shame it's too darn progressive for a quality early-season :twister:event in our sub like 2/28/17 or 3/15/16.

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Tornado in Shorewood/Plainfield hit about 2 miles west of me. Nothing to note at my residence besides small branches and a shingle or two. Had a chance to drive through the affected neighborhood and saw a lot of blown down fences. Some siding/gutters ripped and some bigger trees uprooted (most likely due to the already soaked ground). No warning and not what I was expecting today!

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