bowtie` Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Pretty good lightning. Kind of a mini-train setting up around here. Unless that stuff south of you starts moving directly north, it is going to be a rather short train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Added a few since that time, including one in Decatur quite possibly. Seeing some pictures of minor structural damage on Facebook in Decatur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 You can put it on the board.... yes. Without double checking, I'd be pretty confident about this being the earliest day in the calendar year for a tornado in the LOT cwa. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 924 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0559 PM TORNADO 3 SSE GIBSON CITY 40.43N 88.35W 01/03/2023 FORD IL EMERGENCY MNGR PHOTO SHARED VIA LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA SHOWS A TORNADO SOUTHEAST OF GIBSON CITY. FORD COUNTY EM CONFIRMS TWO HOMESTEADS SOUTHEAST OF GIBSON CITY SUSTAINED DAMAGE FROM THIS TORNADO. POWER LINES WERE ALSO DOWNED IN THE AREA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE AT SOME POINT TOMORROW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Was thinking how it was only a week and a half ago that we were talking about blizzard-like conditions and freezing our asses off. The zzzz periods do suck when they are prolonged, but we can do some pretty wild swings in the Midwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Yesterday's tornado near Gibson City was only the 3rd one recorded in the LOT cwa in January (since 1950) https://www.weather.gov/lot/2023jan03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Yesterday's tornado near Gibson City was only the 3rd one recorded in the LOT cwa in January (since 1950) https://www.weather.gov/lot/2023jan03 LOT rated it EF-1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 January 3rd was one of my best storm chases ever! I saw multiple tornadoes, and got within 100 meters of the EF1 tornado that went through Maroa, IL. I also witnessed an anticyclonic funnel, as well as beautiful winter mini supercell structure. The lightning was great too! I love these Illinois troll days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Another opportunity for cold core tornadoes? Why the hell not? No interest from the SPC yet, but I've already got my cameras charging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 Another opportunity for cold core tornadoes? Why the hell not? No interest from the SPC yet, but I've already got my cameras charging.It’s gonna take more than the 40’s DP’s most guidance has.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 It'll be game on if the HRRR verifies with the higher dewpoints, as it generates a respectable amount of CAPE with those still relatively modest dews. That is a big if though. I'd break it down into 3 scenarios. 1) The HRRR verifies, which would lead to a decent severe threat for this time of year 2) The other guidance with lower dews verifies, resulting in essentially no severe threat 3) Something somewhere in between the HRRR and other models verifies, which could lead to a rogue severe report or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Didn't expect this. First time Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Iowa has had a January severe risk. Minnesota has never had a January or February tornado or even a warning for severe. It will be interesting to see if the low chance happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 9 hours ago, MNstorms said: Didn't expect this. First time Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Iowa has had a January severe risk. Minnesota has never had a January or February tornado or even a warning for severe. It will be interesting to see if the low chance happens. Considering the data for marginal risk areas is only limited to when it debuted in late 2014, I'm not sure how accurate that point this. I suspect if one did some more digging, MN / WI / IA at least had a "SEE TEXT" at some point in the past during January or February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 DMX not entirely sold: Quote The HRRR and RAP solutions regarding instability on Monday have been all the rage on social media since their domains reached that period. Both are anomalously high on dew point temperatures with values in the low to mid 50s into central Iowa and both tend to over mix the boundary layer during stratus events. Other solutions are more conservative on both temperatures and dew points and do not overcome the warm wedge aloft. Sounding wind profiles do have direction shear below 900 mb but whether that shear is acting on surface based instability certainly is questionable. January tornadoes have occurred on only one day in Iowa recorded history, January 24, 1967 when 13 tornadoes occurred over the southeast portion of the state. That event was followed up by a blizzard with record snow accumulations over the state, thus a very strong system. It often takes a historical type system such as Dec 15, 2021 when nearly 80 kts of flow was at 850 mb or below. The majority of the time, stratus wins which leads to non- events. As always, will need to monitor trends and will have a great opportunity to do that over the next 24 hrs as the low matures and we can get a better handle on how much moisture will reach the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Marginal-equivalent probabilities were extended into far SE WI (actually, 5% hail contour extended further) for 1/7/2008, although the category didn't exist back then. EF3 with a 10-mile path hit in Walworth and Kenosha Counties. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2008/day1otlk_20080107_2000.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Don't remember ever being in a SPC tornado risk in mid January before. Even if the storms don't come to full fruition at the least the sky should look pretty interesting later tomorrow afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Like last night's 00Z, the 3KM CAPE on the 12Z HRRR is...noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 36 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Like last night's 00Z, the 3KM CAPE on the 12Z HRRR is...noteworthy. Pretty much sticking to its guns. 18z run will be interesting to see if it backs off at all. In this setup, it's gonna make a difference whether dews are in the upper 40s vs like 53. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 18z HRRR basically held. Something's gotta give lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 They did remove the marginal risk on the updated day 2 outlook. I figured it would've been left in place for continuity purposes even with all the uncertainty. Can debate whether a marginal risk should've been outlined on the first day 2 outlook, but it's not like the 12z runs were the thing to lower the threat. Each model essentially stuck to its guns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 18z HRRR basically held. Something's gotta give lolIt most definitely took a step back with DP’s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It most definitely took a step back with DP’s. . What, like 1 degree? They still max at 53 in the target area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Admittedly would be nice to see something other than the RAP on board with this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 What, like 1 degree? They still max at 53 in the target area.Shaved a few degrees off the north end.In the end it doesn’t matter much, with the HRRR alone on an island.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 SPC maintained a general thunder instead of a marginal on the 06z day 1. Still looking forward to a stormy looking sky late in the day, which will prob be the most exciting weather event of the month lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 06z HRRR is STILL bringing low 50s dews into central Iowa over through the Quad Cities area. Stubborn son of a gun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 The marginal risk has returned. ...Eastern IA and northwest IL... Favorable wind profiles for low-topped supercells will be present in the southeast quadrant of a 994-mb surface cyclone tracking from southwest to northeast IA. Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 50s to low 60s in a confined corridor centered on LWD-CDJ before broadening across central MO, with relatively ample insolation beneath the mid-level dry slot. The 12Z NAM and most HREF members appear much too cool within the thermal axis compared to 16Z observations. The RAP/HRRR-based guidance appear closer to reality but may be a bit too moist given an even narrower corridor of low 50s surface dew points from southwest to north-central MO. But further mixing and poleward moisture advection may be just enough, given the mid-level cold pocket of -22 to -24 C at 500 mb, to support meager MLCAPE approaching 500 J/kg towards mid-afternoon. While it is plausible that convection may fail to adequately intensify this afternoon, observational trends along with HRRR/RRFS guidance suggest the threat for a couple brief tornadoes and marginally severe hail is large enough to warrant low severe probabilities. Convection will subside quickly after sunset as it outpaces the narrow plume of weak surface-based instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 There is currently only a handful of DP’s of 50-52 in a very narrow corridor, from SE IA down into E MO. That’s not going to cut it. HRRR definitely taking an L on this one. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 I don't think the NAM/GFS ever had dews in the 50s in Iowa. There's at least a narrow corridor of that at present. Scenario 3 that I outlined may be most plausible one at this point On 1/15/2023 at 12:04 AM, Hoosier said: It'll be game on if the HRRR verifies with the higher dewpoints, as it generates a respectable amount of CAPE with those still relatively modest dews. That is a big if though. I'd break it down into 3 scenarios. 1) The HRRR verifies, which would lead to a decent severe threat for this time of year 2) The other guidance with lower dews verifies, resulting in essentially no severe threat 3) Something somewhere in between the HRRR and other models verifies, which could lead to a rogue severe report or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 so many poor saps went to iowa for today.kids these days.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 so many poor saps went to iowa for today.kids these days..famous last words.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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