Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 Kicking this thread off early for 2023, with one or more opportunities coming up for the southern portion of the sub-forum...though greatest chances will inevitably be further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 Yeah that system next week looks capable of some severe nosing into parts of the Mid MS Valley/Ohio Valley area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 Of course, the cold is gone and the Euro sends a storm to Cleveland putting my area in the perfect spot for a snow storm if there was any cold around. Good lord! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Of course, the cold is gone and the Euro sends a storm to Cleveland putting my area in the perfect spot for a snow storm if there was any cold around. Good lord! Haven't you learned. You can only pick 2: - Favorable Storm Path - Cold Temps - Moisture 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 January 3rd could be interesting, temps in the 60s from Michigan to Kentucky 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 On 12/27/2022 at 5:03 PM, Frog Town said: Of course, the cold is gone and the Euro sends a storm to Cleveland putting my area in the perfect spot for a snow storm if there was any cold around. Good lord! Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 SPC has maintained a pretty large 15% zone valid for Monday 1/2 for the last two outlooks. They haven't seen enough model consistency/agreement for anything further. Reminder that this thread is for those of us who want to discuss convective weather/threats. There are other threads to complain about lack of sufficiently wintry conditions/lament snow opportunities lost. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
METALSTORM Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: SPC has maintained a pretty large 15% zone valid for Monday 1/2 for the last two outlooks. They haven't seen enough model consistency/agreement for anything further. Reminder that this thread is for those of us who want to discuss convective weather/threats. There are other threads to complain about lack of sufficiently wintry conditions/lament snow opportunities lost. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Thank you. I'm far more interested in severe than winter weather and the Lakes/OV and Central are the last bastions of severe weather discussion on Am WX. And Saturdays model runs should start painting a clearer picture for Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 From the current model projections of very paltry CAPE despite quite high dewpoints for the season, it's hard to see early next week's event threatening much of this sub; but IIRC it took them until pretty late in the game to pick up on the northern extent of days like 2/28/17 or 12/10/21, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Caveat to the above: As it gets into NAM range, the model is slowing things down a bit and showing the front coming through IN/southern LM/western OH closer to peak heating Tuesday, with a modest amount of CAPE within that large area of upper 50s dewpoints out ahead of it. Even has a little bit of moisture being pulled back into the triple point along the WI/IL border. Don't have high expectations at the moment, but something for us severe trackers to keep an eye on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Guidance is hinting at a secondary, almost mesolow type of feature developing in the elongated low structure and moving across IL toward Lake Michigan Monday night-early Tue. It even backs the low level flow a little bit more near it. Unsure if any instability can accompany this though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Don't sleep on the opportunity for cold core tornadoes tomorrow. SPC is not interested but I think it's one of my best local chase setups in quite some time. When you get record warmth and moisture up here at this time of year, somebody's gotta pay for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 SPC kept the northern edge of the day 2 marginal risk around the Ohio River on the new outlook, but I'd agree with the above post about there being a scenario where a risk area would be needed farther north. Whatever manages to fire would be in a decently sheared environment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE almost up to I-80 isn't a regular occurrence in January. Forcing isn't that strong, so mode would likely be discrete or semi-discrete. Winter has left us for the time being so we got nothing else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Baby steps... but general thunder line was expanded to include much more of the sub on the updated Day 2 outlook.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 LOT is semi-interested per the afd. Suggested that the SPC outlook may need to be expanded if trends continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Looks like some nader juice may spill over I-80. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 he Monday extension of the tor watch as far north as se KS intrigues me along with the expected CAPE for tomorrow in the Calumet region. But the present intensity of the low is 1002 mb in sw KS. Will have to deepen and move ne to get us in the game up here. We'll see how things evolve overnight this Monday into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Indystorm said: he Monday extension of the tor watch as far north as sw KS intrigues me along with the expected CAPE for tomorrow in the Calumet region. But the present intensity of the low is 1002 mb in sw KS. Will have to deepen and move ne to get us in the game up here. We'll see how things evolve overnight this Monday into Tuesday. I think we'll sneak into the warm air here tomorrow, but wouldn't quite call it a slam dunk. Mentioned this in the January thread but the surface low being out west in Iowa during the day tomorrow and gradually weakening (or at least not strengthening) spells trouble for blasting the warm front way far north. It may not get much north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Marginal risk was expanded into parts of central IL/IN. Could argue for it being even further north imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Where da front? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Brief, skinny tornado reported/photographed with this just south of the ILX radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 At least one more, somewhat more substantial and photogenic tornado has occurred in central Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 I think my backyard is in the cool sector and front yard in the warm sector. That's how close the front is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 It appears there were 5 brief tornadoes in total. Very brief event too, impacting only a very small portion of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Cell has developed northeast of Kankakee. Also new tornado warning in central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Looks like a loose couplet over Decatur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Looks like a loose couplet over Decatur 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: It appears there were 5 brief tornadoes in total. Very brief event too, impacting only a very small portion of the state. Added a few since that time, including one in Decatur quite possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Pretty good lightning. Kind of a mini-train setting up around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now