January 2023 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith · December 27, 2022

We will press on in the relentless quest for error-free long-range forecasting ... we invite you to join our hardy group for this new contest year.

The challenge is to predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1991-2020) for nine locations:

__ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

to the nearest 0.1 F deg. Scores are basically 100 minus 2x error in 0.1 deg, unless no forecaster's raw score is 60 or higher, at which point, we award progressive scores fitted to the range of 0-60 from the forecasts.

Usually the deadline is 06z the first day of the month, but in January the tradition is to welcome in new forecasters and waive the late penalty until the 3rd (12z) so as long as you're entered before that, no late penalty.

Good luck and thanks for entering.

Scotty Lightning · December 28, 2022

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.5

donsutherland1 · December 31, 2022

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

4.5 4.6 4.5 5.2 4.0 3.2 1.8 0.2 2.0

bkviking · December 31, 2022

DCA: +2.7

NYC: +3.0

BOS: +3.0

ORD: +2.0

ATL: +0.9

IAH: +0.5

DEN: +1.0

PHX: +0.2

SEA: +0.4

Tom · December 31, 2022

DCA: +3.1

NYC: +2.9

BOS: +2.9

ORD: +3.1

ATL: +1.2

IAH: +0.9

DEN: +0.9

PHX: +0.5

SEA: +0.2

hudsonvalley21 · January 1, 2023

DCA: +3.8

NYC: +4.0

BOS: +4.2

ORD: +4.5

ATL: +3.9

IAH: +2.3

DEN: +1.5

PHX: +0.5

SEA: +1.4

wxdude64 · January 1, 2023

DCA: +2.2

NYC: +2.3

BOS: +2.5

ORD: +0.8

ATL: +1.3

IAH: +1.1

DEN: -0.4

PHX: -0.3

SEA: +1.6

so_whats_happening · January 1, 2023

DCA: +2.1

NYC: +1.6

BOS: +1.9

ORD: +2.1

ATL: +0.9

IAH: +1.6

DEN: +2.4

PHX: +0.7

SEA: +0.8

Roger Smith · January 1, 2023

Thanks for these entries, feel free to adjust them by edit before the relaxed deadline of 12z Jan 3 this month. I will post mine later today, will p.m. anyone not in by 18z 2nd. Happy new year.

wxallannj · January 2, 2023

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+3.2 +3.5 +3.8 +4.7 +2.5 +2.8 +1.5 -0.5 +2.8

Rjay · January 2, 2023

DCA: +5.0

NYC: +5.0

BOS: +5.0

ORD: +5.0

ATL: +4.0

IAH: +2.0

DEN: +2.0

PHX: +1.0

SEA: 0.0

Roger Smith · January 2, 2023

+2.2 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.8 _ +4.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5

RodneyS · January 3, 2023

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.6 3.5 3.5 3.7 1.6 2.7 -0.3 -0.7 0.3

Roger Smith · January 4, 2023

Table of forecasts January 2023

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

RJay ______________________+5.0 _ +5.0 _ +5.0 __ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

hudsonvalley21 ___________+3.8 _ +4.0 _ +4.2 __ +4.5 _ +3.9 _ +2.3 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.4

DonSutherland1 __________+4.5 _ +4.6 _ +4.5 __ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.2 ___ +1.8 _ +0.2 _ +2.0

wxallannj _________________+3.2 _ +3.5 _ +3.8 __ +4.7 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 ___ +1.5 _--0.5 _ +2.8

Tom ______________________+3.1 _ +2.9 _ +2.9 __ +3.1 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ____ +0.9 _ +0.5 _ +0.2

BKViking _________________+2.7 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +2.0 _ +0.9 _ +0.5 ___ +1.0 _ +0.2 _ +0.4

___ Consensus ____________+2.7 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +3.1 _ +1.6 _ +2.0 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.8

RodneyS _________________+2.6 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 __ +3.7 _ +1.6 _ +2.7 ___--0.3 _ --0.7 _ +0.3

wxdude64 ________________+2.2 _ +2.3 _ +2.5 __ +0.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 ___--0.4 _--0.3 _ +1.6

Roger Smith ______________+2.2 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ +2.8 _ +4.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5

so_whats_happening _____+2.1 _ +1.6 __ +1.9 __ +2.1 _ +0.9 _ +1.6 ___ +2.4 _ +0.7 _ +0.8

Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5

___ Normal _________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

===========================================

Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded.

Normal is colder than all forecasts at DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL, IAH, and equal at SEA.

Consensus is median or sixth ranked of eleven forecasts.

Persistence (added Sep 2023 to start an annual tracking of persistence, last month's actual values (In this case, Dec 2022)

___________________________ -1.6 _-0.6 _ +1.6 ____-1.4 _ +0.2 _+1.7 ____-1.9 _-0.3 _-3.2

Roger Smith · January 11, 2023

Anomalies and projections after ten days ...

____________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

(11th) ____ (anom 10d) ____+11.3 _+11.9 _+8.0__+9.7 _+11.3 _+11.1 _ -3.7 _+0.5 _+3.6

(22nd) ___ (anom 21d) _____+8.5 _ +9.8 _+7.8__+11.0_ +9.2 _ +8.5 __-3.1 _-0.8 _+3.0

(11th) ____ (p anom 20d) __ +7.0 _ +7.5 _ +6.0 __+5.0 _+8.0 _ +7.5 __ 0.0 _+1.0 _ +2.5

(11th) ____ (p anom 27d) __ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +5.0 __+3.5 _+7.0 _ +6.0 __ 0.0 _+0.5 _ +2.0

(22nd) ___ (p anom 31d) __ +7.0 _ +7.5 _ +6.5 ___+7.0 _+8.0 _+6.0 __-3.0 _-1.0 _ +2.0

(1st Feb) _ (anomalies) ____ +7.7 _ +9.8 _ +7.9 __ +7.1 _ +6.9 _ +4.1 __ -6.7 _ -2.9 _ +0.7

_______________________________________________

(11th) _ After a very mild start, anomalies will be drifting back into contact with our higher forecasts.

(22nd) _ There hasn't been much change yet, much colder air will be arriving late in the month for eastern and central locations but it can only shave a bit off these near-record anomalies by then.

(11th) _ Snowfall totals from last report have increased just 1.3" at DEN, and 0.2" at ORD, DTW and BTV.

Updated seasonal snowfall totals to January 31st...

________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

_________________Tr ____ Tr ___ 7.9" __ 14.2" __19.2" __116.3" __36.8" _ 5.8" _ 37.3"

Given the outlook, I will just move the snowfall forecast table from Dec to Feb 2023 instead of bringing it in here; there may be some action for some of the lagging locations (all but BUF and DEN really) finally within a week or two.

so_whats_happening · January 13, 2023

Quite the warm anomaly in the east lol

Roger Smith · January 22, 2023

Final scoring for January 2023

Scores are based on the confirmed end of month values posted two posts back in the thread and in the scoring tables.

A reminder, when anomalies stray outside the bounds of -5 to +5 (in this case above +5 for five locations, and below -5 for DEN) then differentials are reduced in that zone to 1 point per 0.1 F error instead of the usual 2 pt per 0.1 F. Your error counts as usual to a reflection point below 5.0 then accumulates further at 50%, an equal "reflection zone" exists between 5.0 (or -5.0) and some smaller anomaly value that is equal to 5.0 minus the large anomaly's over-run (example, for an outcome of +7.0 the reflection zone of smaller deductions is 3.0 to 5.0, so full deductions are applied only between 0.0 and 3.0 -- this also maintains the principle that all forecasts on the correct side of normal will score some points). Where some of the anomalies were large enough the max 60 scoring rule is activated but it appears that for most locations at least one raw score will be above 60 so we are all stuck with our raw scores in most cases, except PHX (-2.9, top raw score 56), NYC (+9.8, top raw score 52) and DEN (-6.7, top raw score 08). Those three require the adjusted max 60 scoring. (Note also if anomalies exceed 10 as happened back in March 2012 and February 2015 among others, then scores are based on the fraction of the anomaly represented by each forecast, although in that situation with the forecasts we have, scoring would go to max 60 anyway ... if an anomaly was exactly 10.0, then scores would equal forecasts with correct signs, decimals removed, example a forecast of +6.2 against an outcome of +10.0 would score 62).

FYI, scoring is presented in (a) raw score format and (b) adjusted scores for max-60 rule.

(a) Raw scores (not rank ordered, following table of forecasts)

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTALS

__ estimated anoms _____+7.7 _+9.8 _+7.9 _____ +7.1 _+6.9 _+4.2 ____ _ ___ __ -6.7_-2.9_+0.7

RJay ______________________73 _ 52 _ 71 __ 196 __ 79 _ 71 _ 58 __ 208 __ 404 __ 00 _ 22 _ 86 __ 108 ___ 512

hudsonvalley21 ___________61 _ 42 _ 63 __ 166 ___ 74 _ 70 _ 64 __ 208 __ 374 __ 00 _ 32 _ 86 __ 118 ___ 492

DonSutherland1 __________ 68 _ 48 _ 66 __ 182 ___ 79 _ 71 _ 82 __232 __ 414 __00 _ 38 _ 74 __ 112 ___ 526

wxallannj _________________ 55 _ 37 _ 59 __ 151 ___ 76 _ 50 _ 74 __ 200 __ 351 __ 00 _ 52 _ 58 __ 110 ___ 461

Tom ______________________ 54 _ 31 _ 50 __ 135 ___ 60 _ 24 _ 36 __ 120 __ 255 __ 00 _ 32 _ 90 __ 122 ___ 377

BKViking _________________ 50 _ 32 _ 51 __ 133 ___ 40 _ 18 _ 28 __ 086 __ 222 __ 00 _ 38 _ 94 __ 132 ___ 354

___ Consensus ____________50 _ 32 _ 51 __ 133 ___ 60 _ 32 _ 58 __ 150 __ 283 __ 00 _ 32 _ 98 __ 130 ___ 413

RodneyS _________________ 49 _ 37 _ 56 __ 142 ___ 66 _ 32 _ 72 __ 170 __ 312 __ 06 _ 56 _ 92 __ 148 ___ 460

wxdude64 ________________44 _ 25 _ 46 __ 115 ___ 16 _ 26 _ 40 __ 082 __ 197 __ 08 _ 48 _ 82 __ 138 ___ 335

Roger Smith ______________44 _ 22 _ 46 __ 112 ___ 30 _ 56 _ 98 __ 184 __ 296 __ 00 _ 00 _ 84 __ 084 ___ 380

so_whats_happening _____42 _ 18 _ 38 __ 098 ___ 42 _ 18 _ 50 __ 110 ___ 208 __ 00 _ 28 _ 98 __ 126 ___ 334

Scotty Lightning _________ 20 _ 12 _ 10 __ 042 ___ 10 _ 20 _ 48 __ 078 ___ 120 __ 00 _ 22 _ 96 __ 118 ___ 238

___ Normal _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ___00 _ 00 _ 18 __ 018 ___ 018 __ 00 _ 42 _ 86 __ 128 ___ 146

------------------------------------------

Persistence _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 16 __ 016 __ 00 _ 02 _ 52 __ 054 __ 070 __ 21 _ 48 _ 22 __ 091 ___ 161

(b) Adjusted scores (NYC, DEN, PHX required max 60)

Minimum progression of scores in rank order would be 60, 54, 48 etc ... 12, 06, 00 for eleven forecasts.

Scores adjusted have the ^ symbol. Raw scores that are higher than progression levels are kept and there would be no ^ symbol. This was the case for the lower half of PHX scores. The same applies to zero scores that do not achieve a boost by rank.

Normal and consensus score from the scale established. Your rank will guarantee at least the score in the progression, but if your forecast is within 0.1 of a forecast at a higher scoring level, your progression score is boosted by four, and if different by 0.2, your progression score is boosted by two. Ties occupy all the progression levels used up, so those corrections are applied to the next level where applicable.

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTALS

__ estimated anoms _____ +7.7_+9.8_ +7.9 _______+7.1 _+6.9_+4.1 ____ _ ___ __ -6.7 _-2.9_+0.7

DonSutherland1 __________ 68 _ 54^_ 66 __ 188 ___ 79 _ 71 _ 82 __232 __ 420 __18^_ 42^_ 74 __ 134 ___ 554

RJay ______________________73 _ 60^_ 71 __ 204 __ 79 _ 71 _ 58 __ 208 __ 412 __ 14^_ 20 _ 86 __ 120 ___ 532

hudsonvalley21 ___________61 _ 48^_ 63 __ 172 ___ 74 _ 70 _ 64 __ 208 __ 380 __ 30^_ 32 _ 86 __ 148 ___ 528

RodneyS _________________ 49 _ 42^_ 56 __ 147 ___ 66 _ 32 _ 72 __ 170 __ 317 __ 58^_ 60^_ 92 __210 ___ 527

wxallannj _________________ 55 _ 42^_ 59 __ 156 ___ 76 _ 50 _ 74 __ 200 __ 356 __30^_ 56^_ 58 __ 144 ___ 500

___ Consensus ____________50 _ 32 _ 51 __ 133 ___ 60 _ 32 _ 58 __ 150 __ 283 __ 30^_ 32 _ 98 __ 160 ___ 443

Tom ______________________ 54 _ 31 _ 50 __ 135 ___ 60 _ 24 _ 36 __ 120 __ 255 __ 42^_ 32 _ 90 __ 164 ___ 419

BKViking _________________ 50 _ 32 _ 51 __ 133 ___ 40 _ 18 _ 28 __ 086 __ 219 __ 40^_ 42^_ 94 __ 176 ___ 395

wxdude64 ________________44 _ 25 _ 46 __ 115 ___ 16 _ 26 _ 40 __ 082 __ 197 __ 60^_ 50^_ 82 __ 192 ___ 389

Roger Smith ______________44 _ 22 _ 46 __ 112 ___ 30 _ 56 _ 98 __ 184 __ 296 __ 00 _ 00 _ 84 __ 084 ___ 380

so_whats_happening _____42 _ 18 _ 38 __ 098 ___ 42 _ 18 _ 50 __ 110 __ 208 ___ 06^_ 28 _ 98 __ 132 ___ 340

Scotty Lightning _________ 20 _ 12 _ 10 __ 042 ___ 10 _ 20 _ 48 __ 078 __ 120 __ 48^ _ 22 _ 96 __ 166 ___ 286

___ Normal _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ___00 _ 00 _ 18 __ 018 __ 018 __ 50^_ 44^_ 86 __ 180 ___ 198

------------------------------------------

___ Persistence ___________00 _ 00 _ 16 __ 016 __ 00 _ 02 _ 52 __ 054 __ 070 __ 70 _ 50 _ 22 __ 142 ____ 212

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

For DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL and IAH, warmest forecasts take high scores, which will mean

RJay takes 5 wins (all above except IAH), DonSutherland1 shares 2 of those (ORD, ATL), and Roger Smith wins IAH.

For DEN and PHX, coldest forecasts take high scores. That would give wxdude64 (DEN) and RodneyS (PHX) wins for those locations.

For SEA, the outcome is close to consensus and this one does not qualify for an extreme forecast.

RJay ________________________________ 5-0

DonS ________________________________ 2-0

Roger Smith, wxdude64, RodneyS __ 1-0

===========================================

(actual forecasts)