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January 2023


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8 minutes ago, North and West said:


I always preface this with I hope that I’m wrong, but why would you believe this after nothing has gone in the favor of snow this year?

Until proven wrong, I don’t believe it.


.

In most winters, there is something even if minor. So chances are something will surprise. 

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2 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I wouldn't be that surprised if the NYC area and North of I84 got similar snow amounts though because it will depend on where the frontogensis is ahead of the mid level warming and where/if that dumping band sets up. Whatever falls will definitely have a better chance of sticking around north of I84. 

Thats not me predicting big snow for NYC area, I don't see anyone seeing more than 1-3 inches in this subforum in this setup due to the mid level warming. 

 

Yeah, wherever that "finger" of WAA snows is could get several inches. This is nowhere near the worst possible setup though as the high is located NE of us, the ones where the high is already out over the Atlantic are the worst as we turn SE immediately.  In this case we may be able to hold a light 070-090 wind for awhile.  The number 1 analog showing up is 12/13/2013 but its really not anywhere close to that event because the airmass is not as good and the high positioning is worse. 

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A storm will bring rain to the region tonight into tomorrow. Some sleet is possible at the onset in New York City and Newark. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely. A 1"-3" accumulation of snow is possible well north and west of Newark and New York City. There is a small chance that the rain could end as a period of snow in New York City tomorrow with a minor accumulation.

New York City's long measurable snow drought will likely end on Wednesday. Support for a measurable snowfall during the January 25-27 period is now moderate-to-high on the ensembles. The National Blend of Models has increased to 0.8" during January 25.  

A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through much or all of the first week of February. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions could fade to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +19.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.098 today.

On January 20 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.100 (RMM). The January 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.716 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.5° (7.8° above normal).

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah, wherever that "finger" of WAA snows is could get several inches. This is nowhere near the worst possible setup though as the high is located NE of us, the ones where the high is already out over the Atlantic are the worst as we turn SE immediately.  In this case we may be able to hold a light 070-090 wind for awhile.  The number 1 analog showing up is 12/13/2013 but its really not anywhere close to that event because the airmass is not as good and the high positioning is worse. 

I actually remember that storm, that seemed way colder than this one though as you said. I was actually in New Paltz at that time and it went from single digits with snow to 20s and sleet but no rain. I think the city went from like the teens to the 40s.   

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