Winterweatherlover Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s showing the biggest dump of snow on the front end out of all the other global models. I’m skeptical but we’ll see. Verbatim, it has a plowable snowfall for Westchester, Bergen, Rockland on north and west. IMO it’s overdone GFS and Ukie are kind of similar. CMC has basically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If that’s the case it’s onto February, record broken lol I think there may be a clipper around the 28th and one more storm to end the month probably at least mostly rain. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 40 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I don't think NYC's Central Park, will see measurable on Wednesday. I suspect it will be 45 minutes to an hour of sleet with a few big wet flakes mixed in then all rain. Same for locations on Long Island. The HP to the north is moving out quickly. WX/PT Even if it snows they probably won't measure it properly as the rain will wash it away within an hour. I think at least 50% CPK sees at least 0.1 on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 This is like Central Florida anticipating a snow event. Holy shit guys…lets get a hold of ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Even if it snows they probably won't measure it properly as the rain will wash it away within an hour. I think at least 50% CPK sees at least 0.1 on Wed. We need CPcantmeasuresnow on the case. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: This is like Central Florida anticipating a snow event. Holy shit guys…lets get a hold of ourselves. It does feel that way but should we not be excited? This might be the first and maybe only accumulating snow we see all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: This is like Central Florida anticipating a snow event. Holy shit guys…lets get a hold of ourselves. Central Florida and NYC have had the same amount of snow this winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s showing the biggest dump of snow on the front end out of all the other global models. I’m skeptical but we’ll see. Verbatim, it has a plowable snowfall for Westchester, Bergen, Rockland on north and west. IMO it’s overdone If the snow is coming in on 15-20 mph and increasing ESE wind, any snow near the city and coast will be very short lived. The preceding airmass is stale at best for this time of year so even if it comes in like a wall it'll be fighting to get the temp down to 32 for the period of time before warm surface air surges in. Couldn't care less what the Euro or any model shows, it's a story that's happened here again and again. If it comes in showery/broken up, maybe there's a brief snow/sleet mix that goes very fast over to rain and may not even accumulate. If it comes in heavy/like a wall, I can see there being a quick inch or so north of the LIE on Long Island where it's sheltered a bit from the onshore flow and immediate NW suburbs. The advisory type amounts would be around I-84 and NW of I-287. Any snow outside the far NW areas will be gone by the end since surface temps will surge into the 40s and around 50 near the city/coast. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 GFS and Ukie are kind of similar. CMC has basically nothing. The globals should *hopefully* come to a better consensus at 0z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 If the snow is coming in on 15-20 mph and increasing ESE wind, any snow near the city and coast will be very short lived. The preceding airmass is stale at best for this time of year so even if it comes in like a wall it'll be fighting to get the temp down to 32 for the period of time before warm surface air surges in. Couldn't care less what the Euro or any model shows, it's a story that's happened here again and again. If it comes in showery/broken up, maybe there's a brief snow/sleet mix that goes very fast over to rain and may not even accumulate. If it comes in heavy/like a wall, I can see there being a quick inch or so north of the LIE on Long Island where it's sheltered a bit from the onshore flow and immediate NW suburbs. The advisory type amounts would be around I-84 and NW of I-287. Any snow outside the far NW areas will be gone by the end since surface temps will surge into the 40s and around 50 near the city/coast. I agree. To me this is an I-84 north WWA event, south of there? Not so much. The high is moving away, very marginal boundary layer, low cutting into Lake Erie, during the day, this isn’t screaming big front end dump south of I-84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I agree. To me this is an I-84 north WWA event, south of there? Not so much. The high is moving away, very marginal boundary layer, low cutting into Lake Erie, during the day, this isn’t screaming big front end dump south of I-84 I wouldn't be that surprised if the NYC area and North of I84 got similar snow amounts though because it will depend on where the frontogensis is ahead of the mid level warming and where/if that dumping band sets up. Whatever falls will definitely have a better chance of sticking around north of I84. Thats not me predicting big snow for NYC area, I don't see anyone seeing more than 1-3 inches in this subforum in this setup due to the mid level warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I don't think NYC's Central Park, will see measurable on Wednesday. I suspect it will be 45 minutes to an hour of sleet with a few big wet flakes mixed in then all rain. Same for locations on Long Island. The HP to the north is moving out quickly. WX/PT IMO the record does not mean too much, I mean the difference between less than and inch and nothing. Just hope we see a real storm this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I agree. To me this is an I-84 north WWA event, south of there? Not so much. The high is moving away, very marginal boundary layer, low cutting into Lake Erie, during the day, this isn’t screaming big front end dump south of I-84 And Wed could actually be a decent front ender for I-84 and much of NE PA/central PA/mid Hudson Valley. It's not much colder there but the ESE wind isn't a killer there like it is near the coast and there is enough of a high it's coming into so there's a good period of overrunning before the warm surface air comes in. The Euro has an area of 6-10"+ from State College/Altoona through Albany. That I can see happening, but then again the sleet always ruins things before models expect since they often underdo the warm mid levels, so something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I am all for an early Spring and warm weather if we can't get snow. But of course, it will likely be a cold, wet, miserable spring, pretty much the same temps and weather it is now. It’s going to be cold, it’s going to be grey, and it’s going last you the rest of your life.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 If the snow is coming in on 15-20 mph and increasing ESE wind, any snow near the city and coast will be very short lived. The preceding airmass is stale at best for this time of year so even if it comes in like a wall it'll be fighting to get the temp down to 32 for the period of time before warm surface air surges in. Couldn't care less what the Euro or any model shows, it's a story that's happened here again and again. If it comes in showery/broken up, maybe there's a brief snow/sleet mix that goes very fast over to rain and may not even accumulate. If it comes in heavy/like a wall, I can see there being a quick inch or so north of the LIE on Long Island where it's sheltered a bit from the onshore flow and immediate NW suburbs. The advisory type amounts would be around I-84 and NW of I-287. Any snow outside the far NW areas will be gone by the end since surface temps will surge into the 40s and around 50 near the city/coast. Also, want to add, this is where the +NAO and lack of a 50/50 low is killing us. If there was a -NAO block, even a transient thumb ridge to lock a 50/50 in and create confluence to hold the high to the north, this probably would have been an area wide WSW event, even with this marginal airmass in place. An arctic high obviously would had been ideal but if there was a -NAO and 50/50, this event would have been way different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: And Wed could actually be a decent front ender for I-84 and much of NE PA/central PA/mid Hudson Valley. It's not much colder there but the ESE wind isn't a killer there like it is near the coast and there is enough of a high it's coming into so there's a good period of overrunning before the warm surface air comes in. The Euro has an area of 6-10"+ from State College/Altoona through Albany. That I can see happening, but then again the sleet always ruins things before models expect since they often underdo the warm mid levels, so something to watch. This seems more like a regular cutter to me than an SWFE. I have a hard time seeing PA/NW NJ or the MId Hudson Valley seeing 6-10 inches. Maybe Albany area to Northern NE could get those amounts but this storm should be bringing a lot of mid level warming with a sub 1000 low headed toward the lakes and the transfer to a secondary seems to take place pretty late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, North and West said: It’s going to be cold, it’s going to be grey, and it’s going last you the rest of your life. . I wouldn't be shocked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: This seems more like a regular cutter to me than an SWFE. I have a hard time seeing PA/NW NJ or the MId Hudson Valley seeing 6-10 inches. Maybe Albany area to Northern NE could get those amounts but this storm should be bringing a lot of mid level warming. Nobody in NW NJ and mid hudson valley is seeing anywhere near those totals. Poughkeepsie area is maybe 1-2, Albany area is 3-6. Only places seeing 6+ are Catskills, Helderbergs, Berkshires and places well north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 NAM still showing snow for NYC/LI tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if there are some backend flakes but there won't be accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Eps happens to display a colder option within the same context of what I was talking about. Just by shifting the orientation a little bit. Just something to be mindful of. Possible, but we all know how that goes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: NAM still showing snow for NYC/LI tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if there are some backend flakes but there won't be accumulation. ...you want to see snow?..put on the Bill's- Bengals game on CBS.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 this could be a really nice period. lots of cold air available and very active with the baroclinic zone to the south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I mentioned Catskills because you said elevated far N and W. I don't consider Sussex and Putnam counties far NW from NYC. As far as where the storm will impact the most I agree with everything you said, especially about I-84 corridor Fishkill-Beacon area. Southern Dutchess county definitely could go either way. I think Poughkeepsie on north sees 1-2. Fair enough. I guess I usually think in terms of regional forums or even network TV viewing areas. Within our forum, I consider the Hudson highlands and NNJ ridgelines to be the elevated N&W. Maybe the Poconos to Shawangunk Ridge to southern Taconics could be considered part of that, as the far N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Central Florida and NYC have had the same amount of snow this winter. They’re also in the same climate classification. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 It’s the 3k NAM but the latest run had a nice ending for this evening/tomorrow’s storm especially for the city and east. I doubt it amounts to much but there’s an outside chance this CCB can develop and impact most if the upper air lows can develop enough and keep moisture as the column cools back down. The best odds for that are probably in CT and Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 The 12z EC looks most promising for Wed. I has a fortuitously timed slug of overrunning snows before mid-levels become unsupportive. Even with that, the 10 day grand total clown map for NYC shows 2.1" with 10:1... so really a coating to an inch considering surface temps. Just brutal. Peak climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, Newman said: Not saying it will be right but that is quite a significant jump south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sterno2510 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Sleeting in New Brunswick right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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