January 2023

[EasternLI]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Do we need an SSWE for blocking? Thought Feb 21 and this December were not SSWE driven. 

No you do not. However, the atmosphere needs to be receptive. This would be a very hostile condition for the time being. 

[wishcast_hater]

Magic 8 Ball - will February 2023 be the snowiest on record for the NY Metro area?



There you have it folks. You’re welcome.


.

[EasternLI]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks. Could the MJO drive this? Here is phase 4

Maybe phase 4 to follow what I was referencing. Hard to say, that's way way out there. Looks like we could just shift the vortex to Alaska eventually lol 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Maybe phase 4 to follow what I was referencing. Hard to say, that's way way out there. Looks like we could just shift the vortex to Alaska eventually lol 

Yup. We have to wait until it loops back to 8. As a lot have alluded to March may be the month to watch (we could always waste a good look/below average temp month like December).

[Stormlover74]

Nam is trolling us again for Wednesday 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam is trolling us again for Wednesday 

Every model has some front end but nothing impressive 

[snowman19]

Nam is trolling us again for Wednesday 

Don’t even bother looking at the NAM anymore it’s been absolutely horrible since November. That said, to me Wednesday morning is a quick inch or two then over to all rain

[snowman19]

Yup. We have to wait until it loops back to 8. As a lot have alluded to March may be the month to watch (we could always waste a good look/below average temp month like December).

I’ve been thinking March too but Larry Cosgrove thinks it’s game over for winter by the start of March. He’s been dead wrong about the cold and snow all winter long, watch him be right about that lol

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Don’t even bother looking at the NAM anymore it’s been absolutely horrible since November. That said, to me Wednesday morning is a quick inch or two then over to all rain

Thanks

[winterwx21]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Every model has some front end but nothing impressive 

Not the RGEM. It just came in warm with no snow for us. Starts us out as rain. Remember what NAM did at hour 84 for tonight's storm. It started out showing us getting a snowstorm, while RGEM was very warm and all rain. RGEM ended up schooling NAM on tonight's storm, just like it has schooled NAM on most events the last few years. I'm guessing RGEM will be right again and we get no measurable snow wednesday. 

I'm not saying we can completely rule out the possibility of getting a small front end like some other models have. Is it possible to get an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by the heavy rain wednesday night? Sure. But I think it's more likely that we'll get no accumulation. Temps are going to be above freezing, the ground is warm and the precip is coming in during the afternoon hours. It's going to have to snow heavily for a couple hours to get a decent coating on colder surfaces with that bad setup. Not impossible but knowing how everything else has ended up this winter, I'm guessing no accumulation. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Not the RGEM. It just came in warm with no snow for us. Starts us out as rain. Remember what NAM did at hour 84 for tonight's storm. It started out showing us getting a snowstorm, while RGEM was very warm and all rain. RGEM ended up schooling NAM on tonight's storm, just like it has schooled NAM on most events the last few years. I'm guessing RGEM will be right again and we get no measurable snow wednesday. 

I'm not saying we can completely rule out the possibility of getting a small front end like some other models have. Is it possible to get an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by the heavy rain wednesday night? Sure. But I think it's more likely that we'll get no accumulation. Temps are going to be above freezing, the ground is warm and the precip is coming in during the afternoon hours. It's going to have to snow heavily for a couple hours to get a decent coating on colder surfaces with that bad setup. Not impossible but knowing how everything else has ended up this winter, I'm guessing no accumulation. 

Fully agree

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Based on low level wind flow temps along the coast will be in upper 30s as precip moves in. So even if there is snow falling from colder air aloft, your going to need some heavy rates to get anything to accumulate. It will be a rates driven scenario, light snow and warm surface temps aren’t going to cut it. 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Not the RGEM. It just came in warm with no snow for us. Starts us out as rain. Remember what NAM did at hour 84 for tonight's storm. It started out showing us getting a snowstorm, while RGEM was very warm and all rain. RGEM ended up schooling NAM on tonight's storm, just like it has schooled NAM on most events the last few years. I'm guessing RGEM will be right again and we get no measurable snow wednesday. 

I'm not saying we can completely rule out the possibility of getting a small front end like some other models have. Is it possible to get an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by the heavy rain wednesday night? Sure. But I think it's more likely that we'll get no accumulation. Temps are going to be above freezing, the ground is warm and the precip is coming in during the afternoon hours. It's going to have to snow heavily for a couple hours to get a decent coating on colder surfaces with that bad setup. Not impossible but knowing how everything else has ended up this winter, I'm guessing no accumulation. 

I wouldn’t base a forecast on the ext nam or rgem. 

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Based on low level wind flow temps along the coast will be in upper 30s as precip moves in. So even if there is snow falling from colder air aloft, your going to need some heavy rates to get anything to accumulate. It will be a rates driven scenario, light snow and warm surface temps aren’t going to cut it. 

Ground is very warm too for the time of year...

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season fultility rankings through January 21st. Winter 2022-2023 will likely fall on this list later this week as the City sees its first measurable snowfall at Central Park on Wednesday.

 

[SnowGoose69]

55 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Not the RGEM. It just came in warm with no snow for us. Starts us out as rain. Remember what NAM did at hour 84 for tonight's storm. It started out showing us getting a snowstorm, while RGEM was very warm and all rain. RGEM ended up schooling NAM on tonight's storm, just like it has schooled NAM on most events the last few years. I'm guessing RGEM will be right again and we get no measurable snow wednesday. 

I'm not saying we can completely rule out the possibility of getting a small front end like some other models have. Is it possible to get an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by the heavy rain wednesday night? Sure. But I think it's more likely that we'll get no accumulation. Temps are going to be above freezing, the ground is warm and the precip is coming in during the afternoon hours. It's going to have to snow heavily for a couple hours to get a decent coating on colder surfaces with that bad setup. Not impossible but knowing how everything else has ended up this winter, I'm guessing no accumulation. 

 

The RGEM is wack though with its lack of overrunning precip compared to any other model...I still think there is measurable snow for sure...it won't be more than 2 inches for the city as it stands now but the RGEM idea is probably as crazy as any model that tries to show 6 inches

[ILoveWinter]

Honestly to me, if the snow drought is broken with 0.2 inches which gets immediately washed away, I'd rather it not snow and keep up the drought for effect.

[eduggs]

Glimmer of hope yesterday and then it's all gone to shit today. Maybe elevated far N&W get a little front- and backside love like Walt describes. Could even be some wet snowflakes mixing in to the coast tomorrow at the end. Basically April. And no excitement for a cutter with a SLP to Ottawa and rain to Canada. Nothing of note in the pipeline until fantasy land. The long range looks slightly different than it's been but not particularly favorable. It's too far out to take seriously anyway. Low point of the winter for me morale-wise. We can almost see the end now.

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Glimmer of hope yesterday and then it's all gone to shit today. Maybe elevated far N&W get a little front- and backside love like Walt describes. Could even be some wet snowflakes mixing in to the coast tomorrow at the end. Basically April. And no excitement for a cutter with a SLP to Ottawa and rain to Canada. Nothing of note in the pipeline until fantasy land. The long range looks slightly different than it's been but not particularly favorable. It's too far out to take seriously anyway. Low point of the winter for me morale-wise. We can almost see the end now.

Nice and torchy to start February. Maybe we'll sneak out a 60

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Glimmer of hope yesterday and then it's all gone to shit today. Maybe elevated far N&W get a little front- and backside love like Walt describes. Could even be some wet snowflakes mixing in to the coast tomorrow at the end. Basically April. And no excitement for a cutter with a SLP to Ottawa and rain to Canada. Nothing of note in the pipeline until fantasy land. The long range looks slightly different than it's been but not particularly favorable. It's too far out to take seriously anyway. Low point of the winter for me morale-wise. We can almost see the end now.

Elevated N and W expecting more than a little, Catskills expected to get 5-8. Valleys should also get some snow, anywhere from 1-2 in MHV to 3-6 up towards I90. 

[White Gorilla]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nice and torchy to start February. Maybe we'll sneak out a 60

I am all for an early Spring and warm weather if we can't get snow.  But of course, it will likely be a cold, wet, miserable spring, pretty much the same temps and weather it is now.  

[eduggs]

14 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Elevated N and W expecting more than a little, Catskills expected to get 5-8. Valleys should also get some snow, anywhere from 1-2 in MHV to 3-6 up towards I90. 

I don't consider the Catskills to be part of the NYC area. Yes the Catskills are N&W, but so are the Adirondacks. I was referring to more like Sussex County NJ or Orange and Putnam, NY.

This storm looks to be for Wayne, Pike Cos. PA to Sullivan, Ulster, Greene, Columbia Cos. NY, to the Taconics and Berks etc... Dutchess could have a significant gradient I think... with a 0-2" low along the Beacon waterfront to a max somewhere along the NE corner in the Taconics.

[gravitylover]

I think that here (southern Putnam @700 feet) it will start firm and translucent and will transition to clear and moist pretty quickly. It may firm up towards the end but it will be too little too late. 

[snywx]

26 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I don't consider the Catskills to be part of the NYC area. Yes the Catskills are N&W, but so are the Adirondacks. I was referring to more like Sussex County NJ or Orange and Putnam, NY.

This storm looks to be for Wayne, Pike Cos. PA to Sullivan, Ulster, Greene, Columbia Cos. NY, to the Taconics and Berks etc... Dutchess could have a significant gradient I think... with a 0-2" low along the Beacon waterfront to a max somewhere along the NE corner in the Taconics.

Agreed.. Here In Orange County I can see 1-2” accumulate. Above 1000’ might be able to sneak in 2-4”.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Glimmer of hope yesterday and then it's all gone to shit today. Maybe elevated far N&W get a little front- and backside love like Walt describes. Could even be some wet snowflakes mixing in to the coast tomorrow at the end. Basically April. And no excitement for a cutter with a SLP to Ottawa and rain to Canada. Nothing of note in the pipeline until fantasy land. The long range looks slightly different than it's been but not particularly favorable. It's too far out to take seriously anyway. Low point of the winter for me morale-wise. We can almost see the end now.

The model flip flopping is annoying but I think Wed comes down to high placement, how intense precip is when it starts and how strong the cutter is. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I don't think NYC's Central Park, will see measurable on Wednesday. I suspect it will be 45 minutes to an hour of sleet with a few big wet flakes mixed in then all rain. Same for locations on Long Island. The HP to the north is moving out quickly. 

WX/PT

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

50 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I don't consider the Catskills to be part of the NYC area. Yes the Catskills are N&W, but so are the Adirondacks. I was referring to more like Sussex County NJ or Orange and Putnam, NY.

This storm looks to be for Wayne, Pike Cos. PA to Sullivan, Ulster, Greene, Columbia Cos. NY, to the Taconics and Berks etc... Dutchess could have a significant gradient I think... with a 0-2" low along the Beacon waterfront to a max somewhere along the NE corner in the Taconics.

I mentioned Catskills because you said elevated far N and W. I don't consider Sussex and Putnam counties far NW from NYC. As far as where the storm will impact the most I agree with everything you said, especially about I-84 corridor Fishkill-Beacon area. Southern Dutchess county definitely could go either way. I think Poughkeepsie on north sees 1-2. 

[snowman19]

I don't think NYC's Central Park, will see measurable on Wednesday. I suspect it will be 45 minutes to an hour of sleet with a few big wet flakes mixed in then all rain. Same for locations on Long Island. The HP to the north is moving out quickly. 
WX/PT
 

If that’s the case it’s onto February, record broken lol

[Winterweatherlover]

12z Euro looks snowy on Wed around midday but I’m sure will continue to flip-flop. 

[snowman19]

12z Euro looks snowy on Wed around midday but I’m sure will continue to flip-flop. 

It’s showing the biggest dump of snow on the front end out of all the other global models. I’m skeptical but we’ll see. Verbatim, it has a plowable snowfall for Westchester, Bergen, Rockland on north and west. IMO it’s overdone