snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 The Euro also cut back the front-end snow for Wednesday. Most likely….probably still enough for something measurable in NYC to not break the record, it looks minuscule but may be enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: The difference is the cold doesn't disappear in the long range like it had been showing. It reloads for early Feb but who knows at this point if it'll be right That's already happened numerous times since late Nov. in the long range. All models have been biased too cold in the east and too warm in the west. Until cold gets inside of 7 days on multiple models for a few runs in a row, I will doubt it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 I just want the record out of the way so we can stop talking about it LOL. The bigger record IMO is a season shut-out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Might actually have a better chance of a flip to snow on the backend of storm 1 in say Westchester and Rockland than any meaningful frozen precip from storm 2. That backend Monday on the Euro in Rockland and Westchester probably isn’t even real. It is showing sleet anyway as depicted. Don’t go by the 10:1 snow maps, they count sleet as snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro also cut back the front-end snow for Wednesday. Most likely….probably still enough for something measurable in NYC to not break the record, it looks minuscule but may be enough Yeah Euro and CMC both say we have a shot at breaking the record. Hardly any front end snow on those models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 That's already happened numerous times since late Nov. in the long range. All models have been biased too cold in the east and too warm in the west. Until cold gets inside of 7 days on multiple models for a few runs in a row, I will doubt it.^This! Especially with an Aleutian ridge/strong RNA setup. The models have been doing this for the last 3 months only to correct as we get closer. Same story with the SE ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah Euro and CMC both say we have a shot at breaking the record. Hardly any front end snow on those models. Let alone the fact every model has NYC at around 35-36 at the start of the storm, thats not a signal for accumulating snow midday. Depends also if it comes in strung out and messy or like a wall, like a wall would provide some evaporational cooling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah Euro and CMC both say we have a shot at breaking the record. Hardly any front end snow on those models. The storm is so awful i'm rooting for the record, would be more interesting than 0.10 washed away by rain. If it was like an inch it would be worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Let alone the fact every model has NYC at around 35-36 at the start of the storm, thats not a signal for accumulating snow midday. Depends also if it comes in strung out and messy or like a wall, like a wall would provide some evaporational cooling. I agree. I would be very skeptical of any model run that gives us an inch or so of front end snow. With the temps and warm ground, it would probably be just a little non accumulating wet snow during the afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: The storm is so awful i'm rooting for the record, would be more interesting than 0.10 washed away by rain. If it was like an inch it would be worth it. Yeah get it out of the way so we can focus on the big record! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 I agree. I would be very skeptical of any model run that gives us an inch or so of front end snow. With the temps and warm ground, it would probably be just a little non accumulating wet snow during the afternoon. Besides the boundary layer being marginal, the Euro is torching the midlevels very very quickly on Wednesday on this run, way faster than any of its previous runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Difference with the euro today is less of a thump initially. So it cut back with lighter precipitation. It’s 4-5 days out so I wouldn’t get crazy yet about no accumulation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Besides the boundary layer being marginal, the Euro is torching the midlevels very very quickly on Wednesday on this run, way faster than any of its previous runs False. It's plenty cold through at least Weds 18z for snow in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 False. It's plenty cold through at least Weds 18z for snow in NYCI still think NYC ends up getting measurable snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Back to warm temps and rain at the end of the month on the Euro. So much for our better pattern late in the month. Nothing ever works out this winter. Time to enjoy this big football weekend and not waste any more time looking at these hopeless model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I still think NYC ends up getting measurable snow Per the 12z Euro it's a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Difference with the euro today is less of a thump initially. So it cut back with lighter precipitation. It’s 4-5 days out so I wouldn’t get crazy yet about no accumulation Yes that is going to be the key, does it come in thumpy or disorganized. The models probably won't finetune that detail until inside of 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, WeatherX said: Per the 12z Euro it's a possibility Yea if 0.1 is considered measurable I think theres a decent chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Back to warm temps and rain at the end of the month on the Euro. So much for our better pattern late in the month. Nothing ever works out this winter. Time to enjoy this big football weekend and not waste any more time looking at these hopeless model runs. The 6z and 12z GFS are clear outliers. No other models are showing what they did. Its suppressed/cold bias was very clearly at work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Back to warm temps and rain at the end of the month on the Euro. So much for our better pattern late in the month. Nothing ever works out this winter. Time to enjoy this big football weekend and not waste any more time looking at these hopeless model runs. The pattern after this week looks worse than this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Even if the park does manage a coating don’t expect it to be measured. We absolutely had a coating during the December event, I have pics to prove it, and it wasn’t recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Back to warm temps and rain at the end of the month on the Euro. So much for our better pattern late in the month. Nothing ever works out this winter. Time to enjoy this big football weekend and not waste any more time looking at these hopeless model runs. Gfs drops the tpv south of Hudson Bay while the euro op does not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Eps mean 1-2 for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Eps mean 1-2 for the metro Admittedly I can get skewed by recent model bias but I’d be pretty shocked if nyc metro saw 1-2 inches on Wed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 The 6z and 12z GFS are clear outliers. No other models are showing what they did. Its suppressed/cold bias was very clearly at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 36 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Even if the park does manage a coating don’t expect it to be measured. We absolutely had a coating during the December event, I have pics to prove it, and it wasn’t recorded. I had about a half inch in December, in the levittown area. Are you talking about pictures of Central Park? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Glad to see the GFS showing cold throughout most of the United States in the beginning of February. Not saying it will happen but it's more than I've seen up to this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 12 hours ago, gravitylover said: I noted they're European. You are correct that there are no natives. There were but not in the modern era. Eohippus and another I'm not remembering now we're native to N America. Edit for this https://www.britannica.com/animal/horse/Evolution-of-the-horse Yes they went extinct here and new ones were brought over from Europe. Rats and mice are not native to the US either but you'd never thought it if you live in NY lol. I don't believe any cats or dogs are native to the Americas either-- unless you want to include wolves, coyotes and bobcats lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, lee59 said: Glad to see the GFS showing cold throughout most of the United States in the beginning of February. Not saying it will happen but it's more than I've seen up to this point We may hold off on that SE ridge then, from what I've read that should show up after the first week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Euro had no cold air the rest of the month Go warm this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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