January 2023

[NorthShoreWx]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We’re due for a stretch of lousy winters and we’re not heading above 30”+ in NYC on average without some serious slams back into reality. Our latitude is what it is but this is among the lousiest of the winters I remember where I have a coating through 1/20. 330 days with no measurable NYC snow is really a bad non winter stretch even for the 1970s-80s. 

There might be some lucky snow before it gets washed away from either of the upcoming storms in NYC but to me it would just be for the stats rather than any real winter appeal. If it falls for an hour then gets washed away an hour later, doesn’t do me any good. The zookeeper might not even bother measuring it. 

There's no sugar coating it; this winter sucks. 

I think they retired the zookeeper.  It's someone else's job to ignore minor accumulations now.

We had 0.6" back around 12/12, but that's effectively 0"

[snowman19]

This could finally get the Apps region and NNE significant snow but wouldn’t be surprising if the low keeps trending NW and it just becomes another cutter(s). Without a good 50-50 low and confluence any high pressure will get kicked out as soon as the trough deepens and the low heads north. 

Wednesday is pretty much an all rain event. I-84 north may be a different story. The new Euro takes the low to Buffalo, no 50/50 low, no -NAO, trough orientation sucks, nothing to lock confluence in, etc.

[gravitylover]

8 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Fun fact: there are no native earthworms in New York.

I noted they're European. You are correct that there are no natives. 

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and no native horses anywhere in the Americas

 

There were but not in the modern era. Eohippus and another I'm not remembering now we're native to N America. 

Edit for this https://www.britannica.com/animal/horse/Evolution-of-the-horse

[EasternLI]

We 2001-2002.... 

All of the cold has been firmly planted on the other side of the planet for the most part. Our winters have never been good here when this happens. It gets warmer here now than it used to though because the world is getting warmer. This is just reality. I feel like we need the ssw to come through, with it's associated effects, if we are to crawl out of the basement at this point. That's about all I see that could offer a large scale shake up which we need. With that being said, even if we get one, it still may not matter because there's no guarantee how it might play out. But if we don't, I think we stay locked in the basement and siberia stays locked in the freezer. 

 

[Roger Smith]

Has to be said though, the maps currently being displayed for early February on the GFS run are only a turn of the dial away from being good wintry outcomes, the air is cold enough over the Lakes and Quebec, and the storm track is approximately right. I can see that verbatim the various lows are mixing or close calls but you don't want perfection from the GFS at 10-15 days you just want a hint of the good stuff. And I can't recall seeing the 474 dm thickness contour over Quebec as is shown at end of the run, so that may be a bit extreme but there is certainly a slug of subzero air heading for the interior northeast towards the end of the GFS run, and that cannot be seen as a bad thing if you want eventual snowstorms on the coast. So I am cautiously optimistic about what's ahead for February. Think folks are correct in assuming the late next week storm is a miss to the north however. The change will come around Feb 1-4. 

[EasternLI]

It's so weird though. And I've seen this happen on several runs now. With the strat warming, I'm seeing troposphere alterations like simultaneously. That's abnormal isn't it?

[snowman19]

Here’s a good visual of why the pattern sucks for east coast snowstorms from now through the start of February. This is why you need a -NAO block and a 50/50 low or the lows just continue to run and cut without any secondary redevelopment

[Yanksfan]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here’s a good visual of why the pattern sucks for east coast snowstorms from now through the start of February. This is why you need a -NAO block and a 50/50 low or the lows just continue to run and cut without any secondary redevelopment

You can bet the ranch that the -NAO block will show up in April just in time to ruin our spring. I’ve seen this bad movie before.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and mild. High temperatures will reach the lower 40s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 43°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 44°

Temperatures will average above normal through the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.5°

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging      39degs.(34/43) or +6.

Month to date is      43.9[+10.0].           Should be       42.5[+8.8] by the 29th.

Reached 49 here yesterday.

Today:      42-44, wind nw., some clearing late, 38 tomorrow AM.

Cold start for February for all.       Finally comparable  coverage for BN in our latitudes to the AN.

38*(61%RH) here at 6am. {was 42* at midnight}      40* at 11am.        41* at Noon.         41* at 3pm.       40* at 4pm.     39* at 10pm.

[donsutherland1]

Snow season futility rankings through January 20th:

[North and West]

3 weeks of deep winter climo left and ~7 weeks of extended winter. Regardless of who "cancels" winter, it can snow in late March. But even in cold winters of old, mid-Feb. always started to feel like Spring on a sunny day. Spring is rapidly approaching.

After the rain and mud and just bleh, I cannot wait. I’m anxiously awaiting yard work and green grass and baseball.


.

[LongIslandWx]

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Snow season futility rankings through January 20th:

I was surprised not to see 1972-1973 included in this list, but then I went back and looked up the DJF temperatures and was equally surprised to see that the season had multiple arctic outbreaks.  Makes the lack of snow that season even more frustrating!

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, LongIslandWx said:

I was surprised not to see 1972-1973 included in this list, but then I went back and looked up the DJF temperatures and was equally surprised to see that the season had multiple arctic outbreaks.  Makes the lack of snow that season even more frustrating!

February 1973 also had an epic snowstorm in the Southeast.

[MJO812]

One of these storms coming up will hit us. Models are really stormy moving forward 

[hudsonvalley21]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

One of these storms coming up will hit us. Models are really stormy moving forward 

Hopefully we get at least one event. Well anyway, here’s our daily porn shot to fantasize about 

 

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

We 2001-2002.... 

All of the cold has been firmly planted on the other side of the planet for the most part. Our winters have never been good here when this happens. It gets warmer here now than it used to though because the world is getting warmer. This is just reality. I feel like we need the ssw to come through, with it's associated effects, if we are to crawl out of the basement at this point. That's about all I see that could offer a large scale shake up which we need. With that being said, even if we get one, it still may not matter because there's no guarantee how it might play out. But if we don't, I think we stay locked in the basement and siberia stays locked in the freezer. 

 

At least someone is getting record cold! 

[Stormlover74]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

One of these storms coming up will hit us. Models are really stormy moving forward 

With rain

[SACRUS]

 

Sun sets at 5:00 PM again , since Nov 5th DST 

 

Record Highs

EWR: 63 (2006)
LGA: 64 (2006)
NYC: 63 (2006)
JFK: 61 (2006)

Record Lows:
 

NYC: -2 (1985)
JFK: -2 (1985)
LGA: -3 (1985)
EWR: -8 (1985)


 

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Sun sets at 5:00 PM again , since Nov 5th DST 

 

Record Highs

EWR: 63 (2006)
LGA: 64 (2006)
NYC: 63 (2006)
JFK: 61 (2006)

Record Lows:
 

NYC: -2 (1985)
JFK: -2 (1985)
LGA: -3 (1985)
EWR: -8 (1985)


 

Record lows from the Regan Inaugural outbreak.  Remember it well.  Was an intense, widespread and classic outbreak from right over the pole.  If memory serves 850's dipped to -38 / -39 along the MN border.  I have the old DIFAX maps in a box somewhere in the basement.  Amazing outbreak.

[SACRUS]

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/anniversary-of-the-great-cold-wave-of-january-21-1985.html

Anniversary of the Great Cold Wave of January 21, 1985

By: Christopher C. Burt, 7:57 PM GMT on January 21, 2014

Anniversary of the Great Cold Wave of January 21, 1985

Another arctic outbreak is heading into the eastern third of the nation today. Temperatures will be frigid (as witnessed by Embarass, Minnesota which bottomed out at -37° this morning (January 21st). But the current cold wave pales in comparison to what was happening at this time back in 1985. Here is a summary of that historic event.

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/chrisburt/12185map.jpg

Surface conditions for the eastern U.S. at 7 a.m. January 21, 1985. The coldest morning in the Southeast since February 1899. NWS/NOAA Daily Weather Map.

In what was the most intense cold wave to invade the Southeast of the U.S. since the great arctic outbreak of February 1899 temperatures on January 21, 1985 fell below zero as far south as southern Alabama and Georgia. All-time cold records were set at many significant sites from Chicago to Charleston, South Carolina. Here is a selection of some of the sites, with long historical periods of record, where all-time cold records were set:

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/chrisburt/serecords.jpg

List of significant sites with long POR’s that broke their official all-time cold records during the January 20-22, 1985 cold wave. The cities with the dashed lines under the temperatures are places that recorded even colder temperatures during what was likely THE worst cold wave ever experienced in the Southeast: that of February 8, 1835. The temperature on that date fell to -10° at Athens, GA, -4° at Augusta, GA, 0° at Savannah, GA, and 1° at Charleston, SC. Data from Weather Underground Record Extremes archive.

In addition to the cities above several state records for cold were also broken:

-34° NORTH CAROLINA, Mt. Mitchell on January 21

-30° VIRGINIA, Mt. Lake Biology Station on January 21, 1985

-19° SOUTH CAROLINA, Caesars Head on January 21

Actually, a temperature of -22° was observed at Hogback Mountain, South Carolina as well. It is not clear to me why this figure has apparently not been accepted as the ‘official’ state record (I inquired about this to the South Carolina State Climatology Office but never received a response).

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/chrisburt/hoback.jpg

In a way somewhat similar to the cold wave earlier this month, the January 20-22, 1985 event passed quickly across the region so that record low maximum temperatures were a matter of just where you were when the core of the cold air passed. We can see this clearly in the map below of max and min temps published at 7 a.m. ET on January 21, 1985. The maximum temperatures indicated were for the 12-hour period ending at 7 p.m. on January 20th and the minimum temperatures are for the 12-hour period ending at 7 a.m. on January 21st. Note the amazing ‘high’ temperature of -7° at Nashville on the 20th. However, the official daily max for that day in Nashville was actually 7° which occurred just after midnight on the 20th (the record low max for Nashville is 2° on January 12, 1918).

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/chrisburt/1985map.jpg

One can only imagine the frenzy that would engulf popular media should a cold wave of this magnitude occur again! ‘The Uber-Polar Vortex Attack!!’

Christopher C. Burt
Weather Historian

[snowman19]

The NAM has done a full cave to what the RGEM has had run after run for days now, for tomorrow. That model is wretched. NWS should just shut it down, useless

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM has done a full cave to what the RGEM has had run after run for days now, for tomorrow. That model is wretched. NWS should just shut it down, useless

Like the gfs

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

With rain

Hopefully not

[LoboLeader1]

Sunset @ 5 pm today in NYC, days are getting longer as we get closer to spring.

[snowman19]

Sunset @ 5 pm today in NYC, days are getting longer as we get closer to spring.

The real big jump in daylight comes the first week of February. 2/5 - 5/5 is considered Solar or Celtic Spring. It’s the time of the year when we gain daylight the fastest. https://www.boston.com/weather/local-news/2022/02/05/solar-spring-is-here-and-that-means-we-are-gaining-more-daylight-in-an-increasingly-big-way/

[SACRUS]

57 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Record lows from the Regan Inaugural outbreak.  Remember it well.  Was an intense, widespread and classic outbreak from right over the pole.  If memory serves 850's dipped to -38 / -39 along the MN border.  I have the old DIFAX maps in a box somewhere in the basement.  Amazing outbreak.

Another great reference to the historic 1985 cold wave

 

http://www.markvoganweather.com/2015/12/06/a-look-back-super-arctic-outbreak-january-1985/

 

[eduggs]

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM has done a full cave to what the RGEM has had run after run for days now, for tomorrow. That model is wretched. NWS should just shut it down, useless

Overall I think most short and mid-range models have done a great job this winter. Obviously they are all suspicious out at the end of their ranges. But inter-model agreement and run to run consistency has been relatively high IMO this winter. Few big head fakes. The problems have been people taking 10+ day charts and running with them.

[eduggs]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Like the gfs

Daytime highs, nighttime (high) lows, days with rain, total rain all probably near winter-to-date records. Coastal plane snowfall throughout the area near record lows.

I see no reason to expect that to chance anytime soon. The same features keep popping up around 7 days out and then basically holding. Still hoping for positive changes though.

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Daytime highs, nighttime (high) lows, days with rain, total rain all probably near winter-to-date records. Coastal plane snowfall throughout the area near record lows.

I see no reason to expect that to chance anytime soon. The same features keep popping up around 7 days out and then basically holding. Still hoping for positive changes though.

The difference is the cold doesn't disappear in the long range like it had been showing. It reloads for early Feb but who knows at this point if it'll be right