January 2023

[snowman19]

Meh I hope we just get a trace.
There is no real evidence showing anything will accumulate, the temperatures won't even be below freezing and there is no arctic air around.
 
 

I think it’s less than an inch total, but enough to be considered “measurable”. The overwhelming majority of that event will be rain. There is no evidence to support a meaningful snowfall in NYC Wednesday/Thursday, in fact, just the opposite

[Winterweatherlover]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think it’s less than an inch total, but enough to be considered “measurable”. The overwhelming majority of that event will be rain. There is no evidence to support a meaningful snowfall in NYC Wednesday/Thursday, in fact, just the opposite

How much is needed to be considered measurable? I’m partly confused about this whole 0.0 thing because parts of the city saw a tiny bit of snow in mid December.

[Winterweatherlover]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Meh I hope we just get a trace.

There is no real evidence showing anything will accumulate, the temperatures won't even be below freezing and there is no arctic air around.

 

 

I agree, unless the models show temps below 35 I can’t really take the clown maps seriously at all. 

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

How much is needed to be considered measurable? I’m partly confused about this whole 0.0 thing because parts of the city saw a tiny bit of snow in mid December.

.10" (one tenth) will push us to second place.  You know it will happen just to add insult to injury this winter.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

If that is how you gage climate, then the climate wasn't the 70s and 80s either.  There has been no other such period in the record going back to 1869 with such low snowfall in NYC.  The closest to that had more than 25% greater snowfall than the 70's and 80s.

We’re due for a stretch of lousy winters and we’re not heading above 30”+ in NYC on average without some serious slams back into reality. Our latitude is what it is but this is among the lousiest of the winters I remember where I have a coating through 1/20. 330 days with no measurable NYC snow is really a bad non winter stretch even for the 1970s-80s. 

There might be some lucky snow before it gets washed away from either of the upcoming storms in NYC but to me it would just be for the stats rather than any real winter appeal. If it falls for an hour then gets washed away an hour later, doesn’t do me any good. The zookeeper might not even bother measuring it. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I have difficulty seeing any measurable snowfall in Central Park Wednesday at this point. Winds will likely be blowing out of the e-se with surface temperatures around 37/38 to start the event. We may see a mix of rain sleet and snow for 30-45 minutes, I doubt it amounts to anything.

WX/PT

[Winterweatherlover]

6 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I have difficulty seeing any measurable snowfall in Central Park Wednesday at this point. Winds will likely be blowing out of the e-se with surface temperatures around 37/38 to start the event. We may see a mix of rain sleet and snow for 30-45 minutes, I doubt it amounts to anything.

WX/PT

The strength and placement of the high to the north is the only variable here that could make the start more interesting but I’d lean toward the scenario you described above. 

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I have difficulty seeing any measurable snowfall in Central Park Wednesday at this point. Winds will likely be blowing out of the e-se with surface temperatures around 37/38 to start the event. We may see a mix of rain sleet and snow for 30-45 minutes, I doubt it amounts to anything.

WX/PT

Yeah I think we're screwed for the forseeable future. Maybe far N&W gets a little something. I don't see anything promising right now. Not Monday, not Wednesday, not deep into the extended. Maybe it cools down at some point, but there are no distinct and promising threats.

Ensembles still say the City has a chance of stealing an inch here or there. I'm doubtful of even that low threshold for the time being.

[mattinpa]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yeah I think we're screwed for the forseeable future. Maybe far N&W gets a little something. I don't see anything promising right now. Not Monday, not Wednesday, not deep into the extended. Maybe it cools down at some point, but there are no distinct and promising threats.

Ensembles still say the City has a chance of stealing an inch here or there. I'm doubtful of even that low threshold for the time being.

End of month/early Feb looks like a possibility. Of course there is always a chance that goes away like the other periods.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

If there was a chance with any of this series of storm systems (yesterday, 22-23, 25-26) I would have said 25-26 would be our best chance because of the high pressure to the north. But look how quickly it disappears. Now if it holds in place much longer, different story.  But we would also have to get a coastal to develop quickly to lock the cold air in at lower levels and it would have to develop in exactly the right spot offshore.  It's a tall order at this point IMO.

WX/PT

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

End of month/early Feb looks like a possibility. Of course there is always a chance that goes away like the other periods.

I hope it pans out. But I don't see anything to latch onto yet. 10+ days is just too far out.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Another thought if the high pressure to the north were to get locked in and a coastal did not develop or developed late we could end up with an ice storm.

WX/PT

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

If there was a chance with any of this series of storm systems (yesterday, 22-23, 25-26) I would have said 25-26 would be our best chance because of the high pressure to the north. But look how quickly it disappears. Now if it holds in place much longer, different story.  But we would also have to get a coastal to develop quickly to lock the cold air in at lower levels and it would have to develop in exactly the right spot offshore.  It's a tall order at this point IMO.

WX/PT

Yeah at least there is the high which makes something measurable doable IMO - but wouldn’t be surprised if shut out again. 

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Another thought if the high pressure to the north were to get locked in and a coastal did not develop or developed late we could end up with an ice storm.

WX/PT

We'd need a radically different upper level setup to lock in high surface pressure. Trof axis is also way too far west. Really not so different than several other rain storms we've had this winter.

[Roger Smith]

I don't suppose 1915-16 is going to sneak onto the futility top ten list, as Dec 1915 was rather average and had 8" of snow, but Jan 1916 was quite mild and turned record warm near the end. Here's a log of its record values and what happened to them, with one note added for Jan 24, 1967 ... 

Temp __ Date __ Status _ repl ______ If broken __ eventual record ___ significant other temps

_61F ____ Jan 22 ___eventual record later tied by 1959 .. (1906 3rd (60F), 1986 4th (59F), 1973 5th (58F), 1957 6th (57F), 1967 7th (56F), 1932 8th (54F)

_____ (note also 1967 Jan 24 was 68F)

Temp _ Date _ Status _ replaced ___ If broken _ eventual record _ significant other temps

_55F ____ Jan 25 ___ 1909 (52F) _________ 1938 (56F) __ 1967 (60F) ________ 2010 (57F).

_60F ____ Jan 26 ___ 1913 (56F) _________ 1950 (72F) __ 1950 (72F) ___ 1916 second warmest __ 1990 (59F).

_69F ____ Jan 27 ___eventual record .. (second warmest 1974 (66F), third warmest 2002 (62F)). (repl 53F 1880).

_66F ____ Jan 28 ___eventual record .. (second warmest 1880 (65F) third warmest 1947, 2002 (60F).

_63F ____ Jan 31 ___eventual record tied by 1947 .. (third warmest 1913, 2013 (61F), fifth 1974 (60F)).

_60F ____ Feb 1 ___ 1877 (53F) _________ 1988 (62F) __ 1989 (67F) __ 1916 fourth warmest ___ 2012 (62F).

____________________

(this was an excerpt from my historical weather thread in the climate change forum .. there are similar logs available for all years at NYC)

______________________

That must have been quite a shocker to the residents of New York in 1916, although ... 

There was almost similar warmth around Jan 21-24 of 1906, several records set in Jan 1907, 1909 and 1913 also. All of which came in a decade preceding the phenomenal cold winter of 1917-18. In the midst of all the mild winters, Jan 1912 and 1914 produced some record cold. 

... ...

I included 1967 in the 1916 listing since one of its records ended up broken in 1967, on the 24th (not a record in 1916) it was 68F in 1967. This was a warm spell ahead of the infamous "Chicago Blizzard" of Jan 26-27 of 1967. At that time I was a senior in high school in southern Ontario. We were also in the warm sector of that storm and hit 60F on Jan 25 after a reading near 55F on the 23rd. However the storm was a double wave where the second portion ran a bit further south and changed our warm sector rain to sleet then heavy snow with thunder as I recall, on 26th into 27th. We ended up with about half the snow they got in Chicago and an earlier record high in the package. The temperatures then oscillated one more time, and settled into a very cold February which I believe was quite good for snow in NYC, it was mostly clear and cold further north with a bit of snow to top up the falls on 26th and another 7" fall before the final plunge into the deep freeze.

Hopefully something like that could lie ahead this year too, although I suspect it won't be this dramatic or long-lasting. By the way in Feb and Mar 1916 there was some significant cold and snow too. That early spring pattern didn't last much longer than Feb 1st. 

[wishcast_hater]

So you think the 70s and 80s represent the real local climate and the kids think that the 00's and 10's do.  Both are looking at this too narrowly.

Your supposition sounds like that of modern day journalists putting words in my mouth that were never uttered. I never made that claim at all, I merely stated that many on this forum never experienced years of horrible winters.

Recorded history is a spec compared all of history and to make assumptions on that limited span of time can be viewed by some to be narrow as well.


.

[Dark Star]

The only reason not to pull the plug on winter yet, is because the extended models have been pretty awful.  Usually, if a bad pattern exists, and if by the last week of January there is no cold air in sight, you can cancel winter.  Just have to hope the long range models continue not to have a clue (because right now it doesn't look promising).  Ponds, waterways are not frozen, most don't even have a trace.  This is not winter, just a holding place between fall and spring.

Global warming (no matter what the cause) has spoken...

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We'd need a radically different upper level setup to lock in high surface pressure. Trof axis is also way too far west. Really not so different than several other rain storms we've had this winter.

This could finally get the Apps region and NNE significant snow but wouldn’t be surprising if the low keeps trending NW and it just becomes another cutter(s). Without a good 50-50 low and confluence any high pressure will get kicked out as soon as the trough deepens and the low heads north. 

[eduggs]

3 weeks of deep winter climo left and ~7 weeks of extended winter. Regardless of who "cancels" winter, it can snow in late March. But even in cold winters of old, mid-Feb. always started to feel like Spring on a sunny day. Spring is rapidly approaching.

[Winterweatherlover]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This could finally get the Apps region and NNE significant snow but wouldn’t be surprising if the low keeps trending NW and it just becomes another cutter(s). Without a good 50-50 low and confluence any high pressure will get kicked out as soon as the trough deepens and the low heads north. 

The Wed storm already is pretty much a cutter with some frozen precip at the start. The Monday storm is actually more favorable for CNE/NNE imo as there is stronger secondary development. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

39 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We'd need a radically different upper level setup to lock in high surface pressure. Trof axis is also way too far west. Really not so different than several other rain storms we've had this winter.

Generally I'd agree but sometimes you get a few last minute changes in the upper levels. Let me be clear, I do not think this is going to happen.

WX/PT

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Generally I'd agree but sometimes you get a few last minute changes in the upper levels.

WX/PT

Need a late development with a secondary to change the outcome radically and even then it would mainly only save places to our north. 

[eduggs]

0z NAM still sending a surface reflection to WPA. Too much easterly wind component as a result and it takes too long for the primary to completely fill and winds to shift to the NE. No meaningful change. Maybe a few hours of snow or mix City N & W, but primarily rain outside the mountains.

The event is also shaping up to be a little dryer and quicker than indicated a day or two ago.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

This could finally get the Apps region and NNE significant snow but wouldn’t be surprising if the low keeps trending NW and it just becomes another cutter(s). Without a good 50-50 low and confluence any high pressure will get kicked out as soon as the trough deepens and the low heads north. 

Snowed in Maine today. About 3-6, which is nothing for them, but they've been in a snow drought too. They can manage some snow in awful conditions because its just colder.

[weatherpruf]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah fishing is quickly becoming an endangered industry.....overconsumption does that.

 

Wasn't the recreational sector; there were never enough of us to wipe out a whole population. it's industrial fishing gear. In fact, at least half of the plastics problem in the ocean is from discarded commercial gear. Recreational fishing in the NY Bight reached its zenith in the mid-80s and has declined precipitously ever since, with the only decent fishing left for striped bass, which has no commercial fishery as it has gamefish status. All the other species have to be allocated to the commercial sector, and we see the results. 

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and no native horses anywhere in the Americas

 

Or carp, starlings or pigeons. Didn't realize pigeons aren't native. But then, neither are most of us.....

[Wxoutlooksblog]

38 minutes ago, eduggs said:

0z NAM still sending a surface reflection to WPA. Too much easterly wind component as a result and it takes too long for the primary to completely fill and winds to shift to the NE. No meaningful change. Maybe a few hours of snow or mix City N & W, but primarily rain outside the mountains.

The event is also shaping up to be a little dryer and quicker than indicated a day or two ago.

I would not take the NAM verbatim but I think it is a little colder/drier and has the NYC Metro region closer to a mix/rain line both at the beginning of the precip and late Sunday night. We'll have to wait and see if this is anything other than just a cold rain but I'm still skeptical about any significant or measurable snow out of this.

WX/PT

[forkyfork]

the 70s and 80s had many months that were significantly below average with nickel and dime snows. this winter is nothing like that

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

the 70s and 80s had many months that were significantly below average with nickel and dime snows. this winter is nothing like that

Of course they aren't.  That's why the whole convo is ridiculous.   All these ratter winters nowdays are blowtorches.  

[donsutherland1]

The 0z GGEM is ugly for New York City through 240 hours. Although the probability of no measurable snow for an entire snow season at Central Park is extremely low, history suggests a narrow pathway might exist. Both 2019-20 (1/18) and 2001-02 (1/19) had already seen their last measurable snowfall by this date. I don’t expect such a shutout, but merely note the bleak historical precedent for an absence of measurable snow from this date through the remainder of the snow season.