LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 6 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: Here is a forecast that is likely to be 100% correct: we will see overnight lows below freezing sometime between now and next weekend. Likewise sometime between now and July we will experience days with a high in the 80s. This is like a North Florida kind of winter lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 5 hours ago, bluewave said: On track for one of the warmest Januaries on record with more mild weather to go. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 43.8 12 2 1932 43.2 0 3 1950 41.8 2 4 1990 41.4 0 5 2006 40.9 0 6 1913 40.8 0 7 1933 40.3 0 8 1937 40.2 0 9 1998 40.0 0 10 2002 39.9 0 11 1880 39.2 0 12 2020 39.1 0 It's weird that there aren't more Januarys in the top 10 after 2000....January has been relatively untouched by the warming climate....until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 hours ago, bluewave said: This has been the 2nd lowest NYC snowfall through January 20th and 5th lowest for ISP. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Jan 20 Missing Count 1 1871-01-20 0.0 0 2 2023-01-20 T 1 - 1973-01-20 T 0 3 1995-01-20 0.2 0 - 1901-01-20 0.2 0 4 2016-01-20 0.4 0 - 2007-01-20 0.4 0 - 1966-01-20 0.4 0 Go Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Jan 20 Missing Count 1 1995-01-20 T 0 - 1973-01-20 T 0 3 1972-01-20 0.1 0 4 2007-01-20 0.3 0 5 2023-01-20 0.4 1 6 2012-01-20 0.5 0 What was going on in 1871 that they didn't even see a trace by 1/20 back then? Or did they not record traces back then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: I lived through it, that’s why I find the remarks on this board hilarious regarding our current situation. . True. Those were tough times on Long Island. The few times we did get storms always seemed to be during a school vacation or on the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Probably less than that. Those 10:1 ratio maps are not going to be accurate for that event. Ratios are going to be lower In my experience these "snow to rain" scenarios change to rain much more quickly than expected (with the notable exception of 1993-94 and this is not that kind of winter) and this is also coming in the middle of the day so I would expect a T at best before changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah, if we are going to avoid the shut out it's going to have to be the 97/98 route of waiting till late February/March for shorter wavelengths/increased volatility. That being said, a shut out was bound to happen at some point. Came close multiple times in the past, most recently 1997/98, so maybe this time it finally happens. Just like the undefeated football season WILL eventually happen, a shut out will at some point as well. We don't live far enough north not to get shut out at some point. This area isn't really the place to be if you want consistent snowfall, you need to be in the mountains and/or farther north (Boston to Albany at least.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Not normal There were a few seen in Brooklyn near Greenpoint too. They're cute and highly intelligent so enjoy them while they're here. I was posting pictures of the parrots that have been nesting near my house lol. You can go swimming with the dolphins without ever leaving NYC now lol. Even in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Yeah fishing is quickly becoming an endangered industry.....overconsumption does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Is that a clipper!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Agreed. If we get anything at all it will be a big deal. I haven't even purchased road salt this year. Didn't even start the snowblowers. I didn't even move them out of storage, actually. The mice are happy at least.... Mice? We feed the cats outside to keep the mouse away 4 inches of snow would be a big deal this year like it was in the 80s and 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Had you been old enough to live through the 80's and 90s a winter like this would be no big surprise; even though it was colder on average, I'd be flounder fishing by the end of Feb and party boats would be ready to sail by early March; in recent decades not only was March too cold, but the fisheries disappeared, along with the party boats, as well. I only remember 4 storms in all of the 80s; Jan 82 ( the famous plane crash in the Potomac; the storm made it up here ) April 82, Feb 83, and Jan 87. There were some piddly events in 84 and 85. The 90's had two epic winters, 94 and 96, and 93 had the march superstorm. That's it. Over 20 years, and the 70s weren't much to talk about either; only the winter of 78 stands out. Yep, those were the big ones and we appreciated them more because they were so rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Gfs unloads the arctic hounds next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Nibor said: Sea life in a river? Not normal. Lol Let's hope the pollution doesn't hurt them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Nibor said: At the very least we’ll get a marginal snowfall in March where EWR LGA and JFK measure 4-5 and CPK will measure some dumb number like 1.6 No a dumber number like 1.0 because you know he didn't even measure it, he just jotted down a number lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: Ocean creatures will go into brackish water, but as mentioned earlier, I think the dolphins are there because they are having trouble finding a food source. It's certainly not because the fisheries are recovering. They are not. Yeah that's a dead industry. Literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: True. Those were tough times on Long Island. The few times we did get storms always seemed to be during a school vacation or on the weekend. Yeah no snow days that I remember between the 80s and early 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 This winter is like the movie Christmas Vacation: the house is a wreck, the tree is burned down, the neighbor is attacked and the father looks at Chevy Chase and says “we know what you’re trying to do here, but this is an awful evening nothing has gone right. You need Jack Daniels. Then they try to push forward and it looks like a glimmer of hope…but that hope is quickly dashed by a swat team and a sewer explosion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, WX-PA said: This is most of the 70's.80's and 90's. I think the youngsters on the board think the climate of NYC is the period from 2000-2017. If that is how you gage climate, then the climate wasn't the 70s and 80s either. There has been no other such period in the record going back to 1869 with such low snowfall in NYC. The closest to that had more than 25% greater snowfall than the 70's and 80s. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It's weird that there aren't more Januarys in the top 10 after 2000....January has been relatively untouched by the warming climate....until now. January has been warming, even as it isn't as noticeable as for some other months. The incidence of January days with a mean temperature of 50° or above has more than doubled. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, WX-PA said: This is most of the 70's.80's and 90's. I think the youngsters on the board think the climate of NYC is the period from 2000-2017. It's not. 12 inch plus snowstorms became common. IN the 70's, 80's you'd be happy for 4 inches. That would be a lot. This is so true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 With no measurable snowfall in New York City on January 20th, only Winter 1973-1973 had a later first measurable snowfall (January 29th). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 This is most of the 70's.80's and 90's. I think the youngsters on the board think the climate of NYC is the period from 2000-2017. It's not. 12 inch plus snowstorms became common. IN the 70's, 80's you'd be happy for 4 inches. That would be a lot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Had you been old enough to live through the 80's and 90s a winter like this would be no big surprise; even though it was colder on average, I'd be flounder fishing by the end of Feb and party boats would be ready to sail by early March; in recent decades not only was March too cold, but the fisheries disappeared, along with the party boats, as well. I only remember 4 storms in all of the 80s; Jan 82 ( the famous plane crash in the Potomac; the storm made it up here ) April 82, Feb 83, and Jan 87. There were some piddly events in 84 and 85. The 90's had two epic winters, 94 and 96, and 93 had the march superstorm. That's it. Over 20 years, and the 70s weren't much to talk about either; only the winter of 78 stands out.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: They're probably Asian Jumping Worms not the typical European earthworms we're accustomed to. @weatherpruf I remember Mulen talking about his early season fishing adventures off the Whitestone section on the boards back in the late 90s. Fun fact: there are no native earthworms in New York. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 53 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: I lived through it, that’s why I find the remarks on this board hilarious regarding our current situation. . So you think the 70s and 80s represent the real local climate and the kids think that the 00's and 10's do. Both are looking at this too narrowly. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: January has been warming, even as it isn't as noticeable as for some other months. The incidence of January days with a mean temperature of 50° or above has more than doubled. January used to average below 32 degrees (so did February at one point) but now they both average well above freezing-- thus our climate is now considered subtropical (no month averaging 32 or below.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 43 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: So you think the 70s and 80s represent the real local climate and the kids think that the 00's and 10's do. Both are looking at this too narrowly. the climate is always changing so there is no true representation 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 46 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Fun fact: there are no native earthworms in New York. and no native horses anywhere in the Americas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 With no measurable snowfall in New York City on January 20th, only Winter 1973-1973 had a later first measurable snowfall (January 29th).I think we end up #2 on the list. While I think it’s going to be minimal, there’s probably going to be some measurable front end snow in NYC on Wednesday, keeping 1973 in 1st place 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think we end up #2 on the list. While I think it’s going to be minimal, there’s probably going to be some measurable front end snow in NYC on Wednesday, keeping 1973 in 1st place Meh I hope we just get a trace. There is no real evidence showing anything will accumulate, the temperatures won't even be below freezing and there is no arctic air around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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