the_other_guy Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Maybe north and west does ok? honestly, that’s the hope; best case scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Maybe north and west does ok? Keep in mind that's a 10:1 ratio map. A Kuchera ratio map would show quite a bit less, since snow ratios won't be good with this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Not normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: you are bipolar-yesterday it was over now it's not. Who in their right mind would cancel winter on January 18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 you are bipolar-yesterday it was over now it's not.As predictable as the rising sun, the ensembles have completely dropped the phantom -NAO they were showing the tail end of the month into early February. Dropped like a bad habit. Another model fantasy that disappeared 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 14 hours ago, Rjay said: As an angler, I'm inclined to think they are having trouble finding fish to eat in the ocean....the river might be improving, but the oceans are dying. Decades of strip mining of the seas by netters and climate change. Bad combo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You in their right mind would cancel winter on January 18? Me. It's over. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You in their right mind would cancel winter on January 18? Had you been old enough to live through the 80's and 90s a winter like this would be no big surprise; even though it was colder on average, I'd be flounder fishing by the end of Feb and party boats would be ready to sail by early March; in recent decades not only was March too cold, but the fisheries disappeared, along with the party boats, as well. I only remember 4 storms in all of the 80s; Jan 82 ( the famous plane crash in the Potomac; the storm made it up here ) April 82, Feb 83, and Jan 87. There were some piddly events in 84 and 85. The 90's had two epic winters, 94 and 96, and 93 had the march superstorm. That's it. Over 20 years, and the 70s weren't much to talk about either; only the winter of 78 stands out. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Me. It's over. Agreed. If we get anything at all it will be a big deal. I haven't even purchased road salt this year. Didn't even start the snowblowers. I didn't even move them out of storage, actually. The mice are happy at least.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Maybe north and west does ok? Wait, this was giving us 2 feet of snow yesterday. Now, barely a trace?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Agreed. If we get anything at all it will be a big deal. I haven't even purchased road salt this year. Didn't even start the snowblowers. I didn't even move them out of storage, actually. The mice are happy at least.... My shovels, snowblower and kids sleds have yet to be moved from the shed to the garage... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, TriPol said: Wait, this was giving us 2 feet of snow yesterday. Now, barely a trace?? Just hoping to get the ski areas help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I believe NYC will see at least .5" of front end from the 1/25 storm and we will come up just short of the futility record. I’d have to agree. Don’t think it’s much, probably less than an inch before going to rain. It would take the curse of Medusa for NYC to make it to 2/1 with zero snow from 11/1 - 2/1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I’m always reluctant to cancel a winter this early, as much as I’d love to. But I’ve never seen bulbs come up this early and this much insect activity this time of year, the buds on some trees look a couple of weeks away from opening. First time seeing worms in January too. The dead of winter is very much alive right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 41 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not normal Sea life in a river? Not normal. Lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Me. It's over. Of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 51 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who in their right mind would cancel winter on January 18? Since some of us hasn't seen snow accumulate by the end of January it puts up some red flags..I don't know I'm over with it already. Losing interest in a hurry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Today is the 317th consecutive day without measurable snowfall in New York City (4th longest streak). However, there remains ensemble support for measurable snowfall during the January 25-27 period. The 1/20 20z National Blend of Models has now increased snowfall to 1.8" during that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 46 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Had you been old enough to live through the 80's and 90s a winter like this would be no big surprise; even though it was colder on average, I'd be flounder fishing by the end of Feb and party boats would be ready to sail by early March; in recent decades not only was March too cold, but the fisheries disappeared, along with the party boats, as well. I only remember 4 storms in all of the 80s; Jan 82 ( the famous plane crash in the Potomac; the storm made it up here ) April 82, Feb 83, and Jan 87. There were some piddly events in 84 and 85. The 90's had two epic winters, 94 and 96, and 93 had the march superstorm. That's it. Over 20 years, and the 70s weren't much to talk about either; only the winter of 78 stands out. This is most of the 70's.80's and 90's. I think the youngsters on the board think the climate of NYC is the period from 2000-2017. It's not. 12 inch plus snowstorms became common. IN the 70's, 80's you'd be happy for 4 inches. That would be a lot. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 At the very least we’ll get a marginal snowfall in March where EWR LGA and JFK measure 4-5 and CPK will measure some dumb number like 1.6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just now, Nibor said: At the very least we’ll get a marginal snowfall in March where EWR LGA and JFK measure 4-5 and CPK will measure some dumb number like 1.6 It will fall but will be melted by day's end..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just now, weatherpruf said: It will fall but will be melted by day's end..... No no the pattern finally switches and the snow sticks around longer than expected while everyone complains that it’s cold into May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 23 minutes ago, Nibor said: Sea life in a river? Not normal. Lol Ocean creatures will go into brackish water, but as mentioned earlier, I think the dolphins are there because they are having trouble finding a food source. It's certainly not because the fisheries are recovering. They are not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 The storm responsible for last night's rain and thunder has moved away from the region with partly sunny skies returning. In response temperatures rose well into the 40s, somewhat overperforming the guidance in what has been a remarkably warm January. A mild weekend lies ahead. Another storm will bring rain to the region later Sunday into Monday The lengthening measurable snow drought will persist in New York City and Philadelphia through at least early next week. Support for a measurable snowfall during the January 25-27 period has increased on the ensembles. The National Blend of Models currently shows 1.8" during January 25-26. Things can still change. A cooler pattern remains on course to develop during the closing days of January. The duration of this cooler period remains somewhat uncertain. For now, it appears that moderation could begin to occur during the latter part of the first week of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions could fade to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +18.28 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.484 today. On January 18 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.554 (RMM). The January 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.553 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.1° (7.4° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Cfa said: I’m always reluctant to cancel a winter this early, as much as I’d love to. But I’ve never seen bulbs come up this early and this much insect activity this time of year, the buds on some trees look a couple of weeks away from opening. First time seeing worms in January too. The dead of winter is very much alive right now. They're probably Asian Jumping Worms not the typical European earthworms we're accustomed to. @weatherpruf I remember Mulen talking about his early season fishing adventures off the Whitestone section on the boards back in the late 90s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: I don’t think it changes back to snow. This winter can’t be over, it never even started. Been nothing but a parade of cutters, inland runners and warmth since mid-November. The only semblance of winter was the 4 day arctic cold snap Christmas week I'll be happy when it's hot and dry and it stops raining. I'm fine with it being sunny every day I just can't stand a lot of rain. They are also doing some kind of pipe replacement on my block so lots of drilling and next week they will need access to my basement so I won't have any power or water for four hours next Tuesday-- oh joy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, WX-PA said: This is most of the 70's.80's and 90's. I think the youngsters on the board think the climate of NYC is the period from 2000-2017. It's not. 12 inch plus snowstorms became common. IN the 70's, 80's you'd be happy for 4 inches. That would be a lot. I have said this many times before and been criticized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 This is most of the 70's.80's and 90's. I think the youngsters on the board think the climate of NYC is the period from 2000-2017. It's not. 12 inch plus snowstorms became common. IN the 70's, 80's you'd be happy for 4 inches. That would be a lot.I lived through it, that’s why I find the remarks on this board hilarious regarding our current situation. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 8 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: At this point I'd take a rain shadow. It's too wet! This damn Seattle pattern is annoying. Horrible on the allergies too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: Not really Never change lol. It was weird when you were gone for awhile when it finally became clear the block in December would not produce anything outside of cold and dry. It's better when someone who actually enjoys this sort of weather brings some balance to the board and forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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