tomcatct Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 This is one of those Winters where we will be excited over a moisture starved clipper. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Here is a forecast that is likely to be 100% correct: we will see overnight lows below freezing sometime between now and next weekend. Likewise sometime between now and July we will experience days with a high in the 80s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I hear good things about NewburghSent from my SM-G981V using TapatalkStay away. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said: I hear good things about Newburgh Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Lol.. where in the world did you hear that craziness. Stay far away 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 On track for one of the warmest Januaries on record with more mild weather to go. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 43.8 12 2 1932 43.2 0 3 1950 41.8 2 4 1990 41.4 0 5 2006 40.9 0 6 1913 40.8 0 7 1933 40.3 0 8 1937 40.2 0 9 1998 40.0 0 10 2002 39.9 0 11 1880 39.2 0 12 2020 39.1 0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 37 minutes ago, snywx said: Lol.. where in the world did you hear that craziness. Stay far away Totally agree 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 57 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Here is a forecast that is likely to be 100% correct: we will see overnight lows below freezing sometime between now and next weekend. Likewise sometime between now and July we will experience days with a high in the 80s. thanks lee goldberg 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I see NAM finally woke up. The 12z run doesn't have any snow for NYC and you have to go well NW to see any accumulation. RGEM is a much better model than NAM and this was another example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: Here is a forecast that is likely to be 100% correct: we will see overnight lows below freezing sometime between now and next weekend. Likewise sometime between now and July we will experience days with a high in the 80s. It will also rain sometime in the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I'm close to saying snowflakes falling north of I84 is almost a lock for next week but don't want to bite on that one yet. Baby steps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I see NAM finally woke up. The 12z run doesn't have any snow for NYC and you have to go well NW to see any accumulation. RGEM is a much better model than NAM and this was another example of that. The NAM has been out to lunch all winter long. Really not even worth looking at anymore. The RGEM has been schooling it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I believe NYC will see at least .5" of front end from the 1/25 storm and we will come up just short of the futility record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, snywx said: Lol.. where in the world did you hear that craziness. Stay far away Yea Newburgh itself isn't great but the towns just south are nice (New Windsor or Cornwall). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 50 minutes ago, ag3 said: I believe NYC will see at least .5" of front end from the 1/25 storm and we will come up just short of the futility record. If the low goes through Michigan and the high retreats it won't happen, need that high to stand strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 This has been the 2nd lowest NYC snowfall through January 20th and 5th lowest for ISP. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Jan 20 Missing Count 1 1871-01-20 0.0 0 2 2023-01-20 T 1 - 1973-01-20 T 0 3 1995-01-20 0.2 0 - 1901-01-20 0.2 0 4 2016-01-20 0.4 0 - 2007-01-20 0.4 0 - 1966-01-20 0.4 0 Go Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Jan 20 Missing Count 1 1995-01-20 T 0 - 1973-01-20 T 0 3 1972-01-20 0.1 0 4 2007-01-20 0.3 0 5 2023-01-20 0.4 1 6 2012-01-20 0.5 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 The 12Z Euro keeps the low south of Michigan and NYC starts snow on Wed. Can't believe we are tracking a storm that will be at most an inch of slop to rain but thats winter 2022-2023. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Ugly 12z runs of CMC and EURO for the midweek storm. Both show a cutter with rain even well to the northwest. CMC doesn't even give any front end snow, while Euro gives just a little bit slightly to the northwest of NYC and then a quick changeover to rain. I think this storm is gonna end up like all our other storms in this miserable winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 The 12Z Euro keeps the low south of Michigan and NYC starts snow on Wed. Can't believe we are tracking a storm that will be at most an inch of slop to rain but thats winter 2022-2023. Probably less than that. Those 10:1 ratio maps are not going to be accurate for that event. Ratios are going to be lower 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 6 hours ago, North and West said: 1991 called . Yup, we are back in a 90s trough out west cycle. Got to stick it out until the good times return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Ugly 12z runs of CMC and EURO for the midweek storm. Both show a cutter with rain even well to the northwest. CMC doesn't even give any front end snow, while Euro gives just a little bit slightly to the northwest of NYC and then a quick changeover to rain. I think this storm is gonna end up like all our other storms in this miserable winter. Yeah, if we are going to avoid the shut out it's going to have to be the 97/98 route of waiting till late February/March for shorter wavelengths/increased volatility. That being said, a shut out was bound to happen at some point. Came close multiple times in the past, most recently 1997/98, so maybe this time it finally happens. Just like the undefeated football season WILL eventually happen, a shut out will at some point as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 26 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Ugly 12z runs of CMC and EURO for the midweek storm. Both show a cutter with rain even well to the northwest. CMC doesn't even give any front end snow, while Euro gives just a little bit slightly to the northwest of NYC and then a quick changeover to rain. I think this storm is gonna end up like all our other storms in this miserable winter. Yea probably honestly it's gonna end up all rain. On to the hour 240 storm, at least the pattern is staying active although I'm sure more rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I wouldn’t care about the no snow if it was at least cold and felt like winter. My gut tells me CPK is going to have a shut out this year. There’s just no cold air and everything keeps cutting to the west. This week is done. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I wouldn’t care about the no snow if it was at least cold and felt like winter. My gut tells me CPK is going to have a shut out this year. There’s just no cold air and everything keeps cutting to the west. This week is done. Check the models for the end of the month. Plenty of cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yup, we are back in a 90s trough out west cycle. Got to stick it out until the good times return. Makes you wonder how we got 95-96 out of that decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 11 minutes ago, matt8204 said: Makes you wonder how we got 95-96 out of that decade. Yup. 3 good years (2 great one average) and 7 complete dumpster fires. I remember one day in the early 90s in Feb was so freaking warm some kids had short sleeves. I do not miss that decade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Check the models for the end of the month. Plenty of cold air. Only for a few days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: My gut tells me CPK is going to have a shut out this year. There’s just no cold air and everything keeps cutting to the west. This week is done. Still around 50 days of more favorable climo left, still think a shutout is the least likely outcome. At least I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Snowshack said: Still around 50 days of more favorable climo left, still think a shutout is the least likely outcome. At least I hope so. The pattern stays active through early February and it's a little cooler so probably thats our best chance although this winter everything that can go wrong seems to go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Check the models for the end of the month. Plenty of cold air. you are bipolar-yesterday it was over now it's not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Maybe north and west does ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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