Rmine1 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: Winter isn't over yet. 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Torrential downpour here with small hail. Is it May or January? Big time thunder in brightwaters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 0Z NAM still trolling. It rains in NYC on 0z NAM, but it changes the rain over to snow and manages to give NYC a few inches monday morning. We know how unlikely that is. NAM will probably come to reality tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Looked like this on radar near 9:15pm-9:30pm. One good thunder clap here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It rains in NYC on 0z NAM, but it changes the rain over to snow and manages to give NYC a few inches monday morning. We know how unlikely that is. NAM will probably come to reality tomorrow. Or maybe the others will fold ( let's hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Or maybe the others will fold ( let's hope) 0z RGEM still showing all rain. Not even any snow for extreme northwest NJ on the RGEM. Even if a compromise happens between NAM and RGEM, the NYC area wouldn't get any snow. I'll be shocked if this one works out, but we'll keep an eye on it just in case the NAM is onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 0z RGEM still showing all rain. Not even any snow for extreme northwest NJ on the RGEM. Even if a compromise happens between NAM and RGEM, the NYC area wouldn't get any snow. I'll be shocked if this one works out, but we'll keep an eye on it just in case the NAM is onto something. It is a little colder than 18z but only a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Pea-sized hail in Northport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just cracked an inch here with the last downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 It looks like model convergence towards snow for the Poconos through Catskills and Taconics and mostly rain southeast of there. The initially sharpish shortwave in the Ohio Valley induces a weak inland primary SLP and WAA through the Mid-Atl. and our area. That screws us. But thereafter (and likely too late for us) the wave dampens and everything slips east. A key will be how strong the shortwave and primary SLP are initially. Thunderstorm development out of the Gulf tends to sharpen trofs. But if it can stay flat enough like the NAM, we might get close to the snow line. I expect the NAM to move west and warmer and the GFS to tick south and colder. Any movement by the EC, UK, and CMC will be indicative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 The ICON looks more like the NAM than the GFS/RGEM thankfully. It's also hanging back energy in the trof... something that was apparent on the 0z NAM and even a little on the 18z EC. That is a sign of the displaced and unphased shortwaves, which could weaken but also drag out the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 lightning and thunder in new haven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, ThatHurricane said: lightning and thunder in new haven Only frozen precip I've had here (small hail) since the early Dec coating to show for this awful "winter". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzwalker Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: My wife and I are looking at houses in orange county Any specific area that's good ? Minisink area, west of Middletown. Good snow area (not now...). That would be areas of Slate Hill, Greenville, Waywayanda, Otisville, etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 0z ICON with one of the better runs of the year. Two solid snow threats in the mid-range and then cooking up another big one at the end. The upper levels look suspect as early at 60 hours out, so I don't trust it at all without support. But at least it shows how things could theoretically turn for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 GFS closer but still not there except extreme N&W. Trof flatter with a little more vorticity trailing behind than last run. Just need to keep the shifts coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 19 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said: Minisink area, west of Middletown. Good snow area (not now...). That would be areas of Slate Hill, Greenville, Waywayanda, Otisville, etc. I completely agree with this. I live where Greenville & Otisville intersect. Good elevation as well throughout ranging from 700-1300’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 CMC trended toward the Euro with storm 2, looks decent for interior parts of the subforum and the coast gets a couple of inches before changeover. That one is still so far out could definitely trend (either better or worse). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Picked up 1.03" of rain for the day. Current temp 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: My wife and I are looking at houses in orange county Any specific area that's good ? I would like to say that once you guys move you will get more of the snow that you love but so far it does not matter where we live this winter unless of course its Minnesota ,,good luck house hunting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Gfs groundhog day rainstorm. Seems appropriate somehow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Seems appropriate somehow 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 The NAM is in a world all to its own for Sun/Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1.02 inches in the rain bucket here from yesterday. Currently 38F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 My wife and I are looking at houses in orange county Any specific area that's good ?Come to New Jersey!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 Quick thoughts: Looks to me like the GFS continues tooo warm and wet. It failed northern MA overnight...reattached the graphic posted Monday the 16th from Tomer's Polar Weather link on predominant precip 00z-06z/20 They've had 2-5" of snow in far northern MA as of 1A this morning. NWS comms has been problematic last night and early today but making do with other resources. My quick impressions which are in line with cooling trends to seasonable temps last few days of the month into the first 4 days of Feb: More seasonable winter weather expands across the I84 corridor into early February. The snow, whatever there is will tend to be wet and melt on roads during the daylight hours. Parts of the I84 corridor should see a total of half a foot between 7AM today and 7am next Friday the 26th-a one week period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 28 minutes ago, North and West said: Come to New Jersey! . Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The NAM is in a world all to its own for Sun/Mon Not anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Meanwhile in Utah… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Morning thoughts… It will sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 48° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 49° Temperatures will average above normal through the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.7° Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Meanwhile in Utah…1991 called. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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