January 2023

[Winterweatherlover]

43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We usually get snow to rain events or a dusting to an inch events during bad winters. We can't even muster those little events.

 

Pretty sad 

I still wouldn't totally rule out a half inch of snow to rain for the Wednesday event but not really sure what would be the excitement of that anyway.  

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Smh

 

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The 29th looks like hell now on the gefs 

These longer range progs are a moving target and have not shown any consistency for months as far a eastern U.S. snow and cold go.  As we go through time and get into the 3-5 day range they revert to what we have been seeing since November.  Until something sticks and holds for several cycles and gets into at least the 5 day period I'd consider them all dubious.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

These longer range progs are a moving target and have not shown any consistency for months as far an eastern U.S. snow and cold go.  As we go through time and get into the 3-5 day range they revert to what we have been seeing since November.  Until something sticks and holds for several cycles and get into at least the 5 day period I'd consider dubious.

It does get cold into the east after the 25th but it only lasts 2-3 days. Basically December again. The pv lobe dumps cold into the west because of the -pna 

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

It does get cold into the east after the 25th but it only lasts 2-3 days. Basically December again. The pv lobe dumps cold into the west because of the -pna 

Yes.  Transient cold at best.  And I use the term "cold" loosely.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

These longer range progs are a moving target and have not shown any consistency for months as far a eastern U.S. snow and cold go.  As we go through time and get into the 3-5 day range they revert to what we have been seeing since November.  Until something sticks and holds for several cycles and gets into at least the 5 day period I'd consider them all dubious.

If it's going to snow, it will likely be late February into March with shorter wavelengths, higher volatility.

[milleand]

Just fun to look at I guess....

[vegan_edible]

9 minutes ago, milleand said:

Just fun to look at I guess....

I like surprises, Icon looks promising too. I wouldn't bet on it tho

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

These longer range progs are a moving target and have not shown any consistency for months as far an eastern U.S. snow and cold go.  As we go through time and get into the 3-5 day range they revert to what we have been seeing since November.  Until something sticks and holds for several cycles and gets into at least the 5 day period I'd consider them all dubious.

Thing is there has been a consistent theme all “winter” so far that the SE Ridge has been undermodeled at days 7-10 which gives these occasional pipe dream runs that turn to the reality of a cutter or SWFE by day 4-5. Models haven’t been so terrible with the fantasy storms this year which probably points to the Pacific also being so bad but it goes to show what kind of major change we need to make something happen this year. 

The PNA ridge axis is too far west on the models so far for the late Jan threats in addition to the SE ridge issue, so very likely they’ll end up the exact same as the other storms this winter except they may be better way inland and in NNE. There may be some help from the NAO eventually but so far doesn’t look to be enough to stop the overwhelmingly favorable setup for cutters. 

[Winterweatherlover]

10 minutes ago, milleand said:

Just fun to look at I guess....

NAM on it's own, storm 2 has a better chance of starting snow in/near NYC imo than storm 1 but either way both storms are going to be washouts. 

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, vegan_edible said:

I like surprises, Icon looks promising too. I wouldn't bet on it tho

nvrmind updated ICON is a dumpster fire like all the weather we've had this winter

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

nvrmind updated ICON is a dumpster fire like all the weather we've had this winter

Please never use the icon

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Please never use the icon

i dont but i saw some talk about it on here the other day, looked and i was like "oh boy! blue precipitation not green" now look at us

[Gravity Wave]

There is a coastal signal for the 31st on the 12z GEFS, although it appears to be too warm for the coast. This is the next threat after the 25th-26th, and possibly the only one that will occur during our brief "improved" pattern.

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i dont but i saw some talk about it on here the other day, looked and i was like "oh boy! blue precipitation not green" now look at us

I'm starting to think the only snow we may see this winter is the blue on the fantasy snow maps. 

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

There is a coastal signal for the 31st on the 12z GEFS, although it appears to be too warm for the coast. This is the next threat after the 25th-26th, and possibly the only one that will occur during our brief "improved" pattern.

Thats how the two storms for next week started as coastals that were too warm/marginal for the coast and now they are cutting well inland. 

[milleand]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I'm starting to think the only snow we may see this winter is the blue on the fantasy snow maps. 

Agree...

[Winterweatherlover]

Euro looks like gives ULL snow on the backend on Monday, doubt it happens. 

[vegan_edible]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Euro looks like gives ULL snow on the backend on Monday, doubt it happens. 

Looks like some mixed precipitation in my neck of the woods, im gonna remain hopeful. would love to see a flake or two

[EastonSN+]

31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Thing is there has been a consistent theme all “winter” so far that the SE Ridge has been undermodeled at days 7-10 which gives these occasional pipe dream runs that turn to the reality of a cutter or SWFE by day 4-5. Models haven’t been so terrible with the fantasy storms this year which probably points to the Pacific also being so bad but it goes to show what kind of major change we need to make something happen this year. 

The PNA ridge axis is too far west on the models so far for the late Jan threats in addition to the SE ridge issue, so very likely they’ll end up the exact same as the other storms this winter except they may be better way inland and in NNE. There may be some help from the NAO eventually but so far doesn’t look to be enough to stop the overwhelmingly favorable setup for cutters. 

I think we should have been more prepared for a typical la Nina RNA this year.

[Winterweatherlover]

Kind of surprised the Euro is the model trolling us but Euro says you can keep dreaming next week especially inland

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023011912&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[mattinpa]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Kind of surprised the Euro is the model trolling us but Euro says you can keep dreaming next week especially inland

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023011912&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Considering all I have gotten is a brief snow squall on Christmas Eve, this would feel like a major storm.

[MANDA]

47 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Thing is there has been a consistent theme all “winter” so far that the SE Ridge has been undermodeled at days 7-10 which gives these occasional pipe dream runs that turn to the reality of a cutter or SWFE by day 4-5. Models haven’t been so terrible with the fantasy storms this year which probably points to the Pacific also being so bad but it goes to show what kind of major change we need to make something happen this year. 

The PNA ridge axis is too far west on the models so far for the late Jan threats in addition to the SE ridge issue, so very likely they’ll end up the exact same as the other storms this winter except they may be better way inland and in NNE. There may be some help from the NAO eventually but so far doesn’t look to be enough to stop the overwhelmingly favorable setup for cutters. 

Agree with all of this !

[snowman19]

Thing is there has been a consistent theme all “winter” so far that the SE Ridge has been undermodeled at days 7-10 which gives these occasional pipe dream runs that turn to the reality of a cutter or SWFE by day 4-5. Models haven’t been so terrible with the fantasy storms this year which probably points to the Pacific also being so bad but it goes to show what kind of major change we need to make something happen this year. 
The PNA ridge axis is too far west on the models so far for the late Jan threats in addition to the SE ridge issue, so very likely they’ll end up the exact same as the other storms this winter except they may be better way inland and in NNE. There may be some help from the NAO eventually but so far doesn’t look to be enough to stop the overwhelmingly favorable setup for cutters. 

The op Euro has been showing the pipe dream storms and flip flopping like a fish out of water. Whatever they did to that model with the upgrade, it is nothing like it used to be. Its “King” title is no more

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Seattle is having a snowy winter this season 

The Pac NW usually does well relatively with snow during La Nina winters 

[North and West]

Looks like some mixed precipitation in my neck of the woods, im gonna remain hopeful. would love to see a flake or two

Well, you’ve come to the right place.




.

[vegan_edible]

if we can make it through this weekend and the euro still has snow coming for us it could be go time... maybe

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think we should have been more prepared for a typical la Nina RNA this year.

Seems like it’s more than just the Nina, or factors that are enhancing the Nina beyond its typical effects. The W Atlantic is way warmer than normal which enhances the SE Ridge and the Indonesia/Australia marine heatwave seems to push the MJO into unfavorable phases for us as well as enhance the Pacific jet. That’s beyond the low end moderate Nina we have which hopefully is deteriorating. These factors seem to be working to enhance one another and have been for 3 winters now since this perma Nina started. 

[snowman19]

Seems like it’s more than just the Nina, or factors that are enhancing the Nina beyond its typical effects. The W Atlantic is way warmer than normal which enhances the SE Ridge and the Indonesia/Australia marine heatwave seems to push the MJO into unfavorable phases for us as well as enhance the Pacific jet. That’s beyond the low end moderate Nina we have which hopefully is deteriorating. These factors seem to be working to enhance one another and have been for 3 winters now since this perma Nina started. 

The crazy part is, global temps have not dropped despite a 3rd year moderate La Niña, in fact, they have gone up. In our “old” climate, Nina’s would drop the global temps, not anymore. AGW appears to be increasing

[Winterweatherlover]

10 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

if we can make it through this weekend and the euro still has snow coming for us it could be go time... maybe

Unfortunately I'd be surprised if the Euro is still showing the same thing tomorrow let alone by the end of the weekend.