January 2023

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

He has just been ripping off Twitter. 

Dudes a warminista troll but looks like a genius in patterns like this 

Joe Bustardi meanwhile just looks dumber & dumber with each passing day.

Always picks the coldest model for a specific time frame either to denounce climate change or make some bogus wintry forecast.

[MJO812]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Dudes a warminista troll but looks like a genius in patterns like this 

Joe Bustardi meanwhile just looks dumber & dumber with each passing day.

Always picks the coldest model for a specific time frame either to denounce climate change or make some bogus wintry forecast.

Stop just pointing out JB

There are other meteorologists on Twitter who think the pattern will get better for the coast. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

It is amazing.   same here locally-other than a half inch on the grass in mid Dec-nothing-not even a flurry.   Just warm and wet I think we are at 21 or 22 straight days above normal temp wise.

Actually it hasn't been that wet relative to normal. It just feels like it has though that might change with the wave of cutters coming. 

This is for NJ though, not sure how it is elsewhere 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It is amazing.   same here locally-other than a half inch on the grass in mid Dec-nothing-not even a flurry.   Just warm and wet I think we are at 21 or 22 straight days above normal temp wise.

Think Fairfield officially recorded an inch. BDR reported 0.8.

Stamford lowest in CT with 0.5.

LGA at 0.4 so at least the shut out is avoided in CT and parts of NYC.

[snowman19]

Dudes a warminista troll but looks like a genius in patterns like this 
Joe Bustardi meanwhile just looks dumber & dumber with each passing day.
Always picks the coldest model for a specific time frame either to denounce climate change or make some bogus wintry forecast.

Just yesterday you said you think NYC is going to get 0 snow for the entire winter

[EastonSN+]

For those hoping against futility for CPK:

1.) Still approx 2 more months to go 

2.) Wavelengths shorten mid February, leading to increased volatility

3.) When strong blocking presents itself in December, it often comes back later in the season (hopefully not APRIL)

Other than the above, looks bleak.

Would be hilarious though if we roast like Feb 2018 and get another moderate event in a sea of warmth like that year. 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just yesterday you said you think NYC is going to get 0 snow for the entire winter

I think this winter is done but I can never rule out a fluke snow event. I would personally like to see that 0 happen for historical purposes.  

[donsutherland1]

On this date in 2007, 0.3" of snow fell. That was Winter 2006-2007's first measurable snowfall of the season. Winter 2022-2023 will become only the fourth winter in New York City (Central Park) to have no measurable snowfall through January 19th. Records go back to January 1869.

There is low ensemble support for some measurable snow during January 23rd. The National Blend of Models shows no snowfall. Most of the operational guidance has moved away from any accumulations in Central Park.

Another system could bring at least the possibility of measurable snow during January 25-27. Ensemble support is moderate. Such support has also been higher than it was for the preceding event. The operational guidance generally shows little or no snowfall.

In sum, New York City's measurable snow drought will very likely continue into at least early next week. There is some possibility that it could extend through the remainder of the month.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Stop just pointing out JB

There are other meteorologists on Twitter who think the pattern will get better for the coast. 

It probably isn't even supposed to snow at the coast much anymore.

Have you seen what's been going on with the climate?  None of this should be a surprise to anyone.

 

[Brian5671]

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Dudes a warminista troll but looks like a genius in patterns like this 

Joe Bustardi meanwhile just looks dumber & dumber with each passing day.

Always picks the coldest model for a specific time frame either to denounce climate change or make some bogus wintry forecast.

Saw it on another site but apparantly the weatherbell models are colder than the ones seen elsewhere...LOL

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

On this date in 2007, 0.3" of snow fell. That was Winter 2006-2007's first measurable snowfall of the season. Winter 2022-2023 will become only the fourth winter in New York City (Central Park) to have no measurable snowfall through January 19th. Records go back to January 1869.

There is low ensemble support for some measurable snow during January 23rd. The National Blend of Models shows no snowfall. Most of the operational guidance has moved away from any accumulations in Central Park.

Another system could bring at least the possibility of measurable snow during January 25-27. Ensemble support is moderate. Such support has also been higher than it was for the preceding event. The operational guidance generally shows little or no snowfall.

In sum, New York City's measurable snow drought will very likely continue into at least early next week. There is some possibility that it could extend through the remainder of the month.

Chances of breaking that suspect 2019-20 record have increased.

I still view that 332 record with some suspicion, no one ever talks about 2019-20 as among our least snowy winters-- it's always 1972-73, 1997-98, 2001-02 and 2011-12.

 

[WarrenCtyWx]

It’s difficult to get shut out completely even during a horrible winter. That being said if NYC gets to mid February without anything measurable I would say they definitely have a shot at the futility record.

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Dudes a warminista troll but looks like a genius in patterns like this 

Joe Bustardi meanwhile just looks dumber & dumber with each passing day.

Always picks the coldest model for a specific time frame either to denounce climate change or make some bogus wintry forecast.

Remember JB's 2001-02, this is a repeat of that.

 

[wdrag]

mPing letting me down.  Nothing icy on leading in ne PA tho text report ice pellets at 720A at Mt Cobb on exit 8 -I84 in PA... 2000' elevation. Bright banding there now so the leading edge may start showing more mixed rain/sleet by 10AM into the Catskills.

 

Wildly differing solutions tonight in northern MA.  GEFS mostly wet.  other models varying amounts more ice/snow mix.

[CIK62]

From now till Mid_Feb(average of 28 days) the JMA has above normal heights but normal 850's for us:  {upper right quadrants of the maps}

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Remember JB's 2001-02, this is a repeat of that.

 

he's been more tame this go around-said the best pattern was west of the Appalachians and only went 15 inches of snow for NYC...01-02 he was screaming vodka cold was coming with al qaeda marching down the frozen hudson....never happened and he finally gave up mid Feb long after everyone else...

[Allsnow]

27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

On this date in 2007, 0.3" of snow fell. That was Winter 2006-2007's first measurable snowfall of the season. Winter 2022-2023 will become only the fourth winter in New York City (Central Park) to have no measurable snowfall through January 19th. Records go back to January 1869.

There is low ensemble support for some measurable snow during January 23rd. The National Blend of Models shows no snowfall. Most of the operational guidance has moved away from any accumulations in Central Park.

Another system could bring at least the possibility of measurable snow during January 25-27. Ensemble support is moderate. Such support has also been higher than it was for the preceding event. The operational guidance generally shows little or no snowfall.

In sum, New York City's measurable snow drought will very likely continue into at least early next week. There is some possibility that it could extend through the remainder of the month.

It’s going into February 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

he's been more tame this go around-said the best pattern was west of the Appalachians and only went 15 inches of snow for NYC...01-02 he was screaming vodka cold was coming with al qaeda marching down the frozen hudson....never happened and he finally gave up mid Feb long after everyone else...

It was worth it to see him screw up so bad to get a historically bad winter like that.

I'll still rank that higher than any of the others for snowfall futility and extreme warmth.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

It’s going into February 

Then we could have that SE ridge build and end the "good" pattern completely before it ever snows.

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks Don.  Initially amazed that 95-96 is in there but 93-94 isn't, but I suppose the most brutal part of 93/94 was just getting started around the 18th..

[SnoSki14]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It probably isn't even supposed to snow at the coast much anymore.

Have you seen what's been going on with the climate?  None of this should be a surprise to anyone.

 

If it still manages to snow down to the gulf coast some years then we have a lot of time before coastal snows become unviable. 

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Remember JB's 2001-02, this is a repeat of that.

 

If we do see little to no snow the rest of this season then I wouldn't be shocked at a blockbuster 23/24.

It's all or nothing nowadays. 02/03, one of the snowiest seasons ever did follow 01/02. Next winter will likely see a Nino as well. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Stop just pointing out JB

There are other meteorologists on Twitter who think the pattern will get better for the coast. 

What are actual scientists saying? JB just has a BS; about the same level as an entry level accountant or elementary teacher, neither of which he would probably be as good as. A guy who is so off base on so many things simply can't be taken seriously on, well, anything. So how about some others? Serious question, not being snide.

[donsutherland1]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chances of breaking that suspect 2019-20 record have increased.

I still view that 332 record with some suspicion, no one ever talks about 2019-20 as among our least snowy winters-- it's always 1972-73, 1997-98, 2001-02 and 2011-12.

 

2019-2020 had Central Park's 4th lowest snowfall. That there was the snowfall in May (no accumulation in the City) may have skewed perceptions about the duration of the period where there had been no measurable snowfall.

Least snowy winters:

1972-1973: 2.8"
2001-2002: 3.5"
1918-1919: 3.8"
2019-2020: 4.8"
1900-1901: 5.1"

[Allsnow]

The JB obsession on this forum is ridiculous. I haven’t read something from him since 2008

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Thanks Don.  Initially amazed that 95-96 is in there but 93-94 isn't, but I suppose the most brutal part of 93/94 was just getting started around the 18th..

Overall, winter 1993-1994 wound up ranking 17th in terms of cold and snow. Without the relatively warm December, it would have ranked in the top 10. Winter 2010-11 ranked 14th. The cold is what has been absent from recent winters. 1995-1996 was the warmest of among the top 10 winters. That's why it ranked third on the combined scale (cold and snow are weighted equally).

[donsutherland1]

43 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s going into February 

It very well could. Our best chance might be the January 25-27 system, but it is not a slam dunk. Things could well correct warmer than currently shown.

[donsutherland1]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It was worth it to see him screw up so bad to get a historically bad winter like that.

I'll still rank that higher than any of the others for snowfall futility and extreme warmth.

 

Winter 2001-2002 currently ranks 1st in terms of futility (warmth and lack of snow) for an entire snow season.

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The JB obsession on this forum is ridiculous. I haven’t read something from him since 2008

[EasternLI]

Just taking a peek up into the stratosphere guidance this morning. Just because some may be interested to see some of the real data. Let's check the status. It's already disturbed somewhat from the earlier shots of warming. Here's initial conditions on the euro. 

There's another good shot scheduled up in 6 days. Here's the euro again. Euro is slightly stronger than the GFS with this. 

Another one setting up to follow that one up. Here's the euro again, Gfs has the same general idea as does gefs and eps. 

Here's the 06z gefs, which has 39% of the members achieve a technical ssw. That number fluctuates greatly from run to run, but that's the highest I've seen it so far. So figured I'd mention it. May all be meaningless in the end, of course. We all realize this. Seems interesting enough to keep an eye on it to me though. Something is happening there, may as well watch it. 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 2001-2002 currently ranks 1st in terms of futility (warmth and lack of snow) for an entire snow season.

Do you have a chart for the ten worst winters (warmth + lack of snow) for the entire season