January 2023

[North and West]

we should probably focus on the favorable period coming up before discussing how said period may break down in 15-20 days

We’re also suffering a collective breakdown.


.

[Blue Dream]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we should probably focus on the favorable period coming up before discussing how said period may break down in 15-20 days

Always appreciate your optimism...nice change of pace for this subforum

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we should probably focus on the favorable period coming up before discussing how said period may break down in 15-20 days

Thank you

[brooklynwx99]

I think one of the most important parts of the medium to LR forecast will be the NAO... if we can establish even a weak -NAO, even into Feb when the PNA becomes negative, it'll keep the TPV in a favorable spot with cold nearby

if not... not so good. the NAO is inherently very difficult to predict, so there's going to be a lot of changes, but it's nice to see modeling maintain that signal

[Brian5671]

55 out with sun-feels like April

[matt8204]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Another overperforming day. Ewr up to 56

I'd rather have it be like this if snow is out of the question.  

[winterwx21]

12z Euro too warm for the NYC area sunday, but has a decent snowfall for northwest NJ. 

[vegan_edible]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro too warm for the NYC area sunday, but has a decent snowfall for northwest NJ. 

not looking too bad tho, if a couple minor shifts happen we could get something out of this

[winterwx21]

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

55 out with sun-feels like April

It just hit 58 here! I'm going to go for a run outside with a t-shirt on. Love it! 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro too warm for the NYC area sunday, but has a decent snowfall for northwest NJ. 

Both storms shifted east after the 1st storm.

Great hit for inland areas.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Both storms shifted east after the 1st storm.

Great hit for inland areas.

Wednesday is very close to a hit for the coast. Would be snow to mix or rain

[Gravity Wave]

The 25th/26th threat is very close for the coast according to the Euro. Every small shift south with the 1st storm, even if it's going to be a rainer for NYC, will help our cause for the second one.

[psv88]

54 here. Some of the bulbs are sprouting. Feels like April for sure

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wednesday is very close to a hit for the coast. Would be snow to mix or rain

Yeah the Euro gives even NYC a decent front end dump. I'm guessing it will trend warmer like all our other storms have, but it's a week away and at least we can say we have slight hope for that one. 

[Uniblab]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

54 here. Some of the bulbs are sprouting. Feels like April for sure

All of my bulbs are halfway grown lol. 

[Winterweatherlover]

ECM Crushes interior next week but coast gets some fun from storm 2.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023011812&fh=192&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah the Euro gives even NYC a decent front end dump. I'm guessing it will trend warmer like all our other storms have, but it's a week away and at least we can say we have slight hope for that one. 

SWFE type events mostly trend north and we have the almost always stronger than expected 7 days out SE Ridge to help that happen so if we’re going into a gradient/SWFE pattern it’ll be great for much of New England and upstate NY I-90 and north with colder rain for most of us. 

I’m mostly tuning out on this “winter” until the pattern meaningfully changes. If this west based -NAO does form along with a window of +PNA we can have a turnaround period, if not we keep suffering. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Euro starts NYC area 30-32 for storm 2, I believe the more south storm 1 is the colder it will be at the start of storm 2 and the better chance of significant snow near the coast.  

[nycwinter]

i even had to open my coat outside today...lucky i had a sweatshirt underneath..

[SnoSki14]

Here's why it'll keep moving west. Look at those anomalies off of New England. That's reinforcing the ridging there

[BxEngine]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Here's why it'll keep moving west. Look at those anomalies off of New England. That's reinforcing the ridging there

Isnt it weird that the data is there yet the models dont catch onto the warmer waters and constantly adjust just because they finally catch up to that data? 

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Here's why it'll keep moving west. Look at those anomalies off of New England. That's reinforcing the ridging there

I wish it didn't only work when we don't want it to. Whenever a storm is off the coast it does nothing to get it to us like the last storm.

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

55 out with sun-feels like April

Driving down the gsp this morning I saw a convertible with top down enjoying the winter morning lol

[Allsnow]

Eps really doesn't like either event for the coast. Pattern breaks down after a few chilly days 

[snowman19]

Eps really doesn't like either event for the coast. Pattern breaks down after a few chilly days 

Based on the last 3 months, until proven otherwise, for the rest of this winter, IMO: 1) the SE ridge/WAR is going to trend stronger as we get closer, 2) Unless a true -NAO block and 50/50 low actually show up in real time, not just fantasy on a long/medium range op or ensemble run, the storm is going to run or cut 3) If there’s a -PNA with a trough dumped out west, same story 4) Don’t believe +PNA’s until they actually happen, not just model fantasy

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Based on the last 3 months, until proven otherwise, for the rest of this winter, IMO: 1) the SE ridge/WAR is going to trend stronger as we get closer, 2) Unless a true -NAO block and 50/50 low actually show up in real time, not just fantasy on a long/medium range op or ensemble run, the storm is going to run or cut 3) If there’s a -PNA with a trough dumped out west, same story 4) Don’t believe +PNA’s until they actually happen, not just model fantasy

People wonder how we went nearly a decade without major snows in the 80s or had multiple low years in the late 90s

Well that's how.

But we also have to deal with the effects of CC on our patterns today. One of those big effects is the southbound Greenland ridging and ridging off the Atlantic coast. 

It's going to be harder and harder to deliver a good snow season here. 

On the plus side, if and when things do come together you could get a massive storm. There will be a storm that drops 3-5' of snow over our area over the next 10-15 years or before the warming becomes too much. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

People wonder how we went nearly a decade without major snows in the 80s or had multiple low years in the late 90s

Well that's how.

But we also have to deal with the effects of CC on our patterns today. One of those big effects is the southbound Greenland ridging and ridging off the Atlantic coast. 

It's going to be harder and harder to deliver a good snow season here. 

Eh, we will have standard north based Greenland blocking again. It's not extinct. Just a bad year.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

SWFE type events mostly trend north and we have the almost always stronger than expected 7 days out SE Ridge to help that happen so if we’re going into a gradient/SWFE pattern it’ll be great for much of New England and upstate NY I-90 and north with colder rain for most of us. 

I’m mostly tuning out on this “winter” until the pattern meaningfully changes. If this west based -NAO does form along with a window of +PNA we can have a turnaround period, if not we keep suffering. 

need to see a storm OTS to our SE to really get excited...that would trend west and give us the goods.  There's also a continuing lack of true cold air which is another problem

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

need to see a storm OTS to our SE to really get excited...that would trend west and give us the goods.  There's also a continuing lack of true cold air which is another problem

yeah, but that could also be OTS. That’s the failure in that logic.

 

And if the southeast ridge really is that strong, then we’re done for snow here. No reason to track anything.

 

That’s the failure in the whole attitude.

[the_other_guy]

37 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Eh, we will have standard north based Greenland blocking again. It's not extinct. Just a bad year.

this isn’t a bad year.

This is historic, and this is climate change.

A part of me almost hopes that the city gets totally shut out so we can stop the bs with the bad year.

 

This is what New York City winters look like more and more going forward