MJO812 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 LOL Icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 24 minutes ago, matt8204 said: Even 97-98 had some chances in January though. I also remember getting a bit of snow right after Christmas. Yeah, I think 97/98 January matches this December with the chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Everywhere south of Orange County got jack diddly from that event. All rain White Plains had a little over an inch from that mid december storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LOL Icon Ukie was similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 All in all, IF that northern stream low didn't dominante and become historically strong, that follow up wave could have easily hit us and instead of looking at History for CPK it would be a run of the mill ratter. Shows how little nuances can cause such drastic changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 38 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I really hope it's not another cold/snowy March. I can't stand snow/cold in late winter. The only exception I'll make is a crazy storm like 1888 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: LOL Icon No threats for us whatsoever. No 50/50s in place. Every system should cut well west A great stretch though for C/N NE and the ski regions up north. Even parts of SNE might do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: No threats for us whatsoever. No 50/50s in place. Every system should cut well west A great stretch though for C/N NE and the ski regions up north. Even parts of SNE might do well Looks like the 12z GFS run has next weeks systems shifting further east from the 06z run. Subject to change of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 HM isn’t impressed. Guess we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Ukie was similiarWhich site are you using? This one isn’t showing anything big in the metro area https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/new-york/snow-depth-in/20230125-0000z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 If you were not alive in the 80s, the 12z models so far are a good example of a winter pattern. Warm and wet cold and dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 I think our best chance is still the 25th-26th. There's more cold air around and a slight shift in track to the south and east would put the low pressure out over the ocean close enough to yield some significant snow to much of the NYC Metro Region. Still the odds are against it happening as the models all at this point depict a rainstorm here with the track of the low over us or to our north and west. But as I said yesterday I think this is the one to watch. WX/PT 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Another overperforming day. Ewr up to 56 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Shades of this past December on the gfs. Two interior hits then cold dry before pattern breaks down 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I think our best chance is still the 25th-26th. There's more cold air around and a slight shift in track to the south and east would put the low pressure out over the ocean close enough to yield some significant snow to much of the NYC Metro Region. Still the odds are against it happening as the models all at this point depict a rainstorm here with the track of the low over us or to our north and west. But as I said yesterday I think this is the one to watch. WX/PT Agree that one has the best chance although more likely warm/wet than frozen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Shades of this past December on the gfs. Two interior hits then cold dry before pattern breaks down The PAC starts to go to hell quicker on the GEFS this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 27 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Looks like the 12z GFS run has next weeks systems shifting further east from the 06z run. Subject to change of course. The 12z gfs did shift east but it’s really now just in line with other models. Honestly the model agreement of the two storms next week is pretty good right now and they look almost identical except the second one starts out a little colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: All in all, IF that northern stream low didn't dominante and become historically strong, that follow up wave could have easily hit us and instead of looking at History for CPK it would be a run of the mill ratter. Shows how little nuances can cause such drastic changes It even snowed on cape cod over the weekend. It takes a lot going wrong to not get any snow all winter even in a bad pattern but NYC may find a way the way this winter is going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 The 12z gfs did shift east but it’s really now just in line with other models. Honestly the model agreement of the two storms next week is pretty good right now and they look almost identical except the second one starts out a little colder. The GFS being where it is for Wed/Thurs is a bad sign IMO. You want to see it suppressed and OTS and a miss at this range. It almost always corrects further west as you draw closer to the event. If there’s a further west correction from where it is now, that’s not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: It even snowed on cape cod over the weekend. It takes a lot going wrong to not get any snow all winter even in a bad pattern but NYC may find a way the way this winter is going. Yup, almost like not having a single thunderstorm all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS being where it is for Wed/Thurs is a bad sign IMO. You want to see it suppressed and OTS and a miss at this range. It almost always corrects further west as you draw closer to the event. If there’s a further west correction from where it is now, that’s not good That’s a good point and beyond even the gfs I can’t think of too many storms that ended up a coast snowstorm that didn’t have several runs of models showing OTS. Id be pretty surprised if either storm next week is a coast snowstorm although wouldn’t rule out some frozen precip to start especially NW of the city. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yup, almost like not having a single thunderstorm all summer. Lately my best storms are in September or the fall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Shades of this past December on the gfs. Two interior hits then cold dry before pattern breaks down If that continues then futility records are in play. Feb looks warm too on weeklies. Only thing that could muck it up is some March storm. Getting 0 snow is probably a long shot though but fingers crossed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 That’s a good point and beyond even the gfs I can’t think of too many storms that ended up a coast snowstorm that didn’t have several runs of models showing OTS. Id be pretty surprised if either storm next week is a coast snowstorm although wouldn’t rule out some frozen precip to start especially NW of the city. You want the GFS clipping Cape Cod and the eastern twin forks at this range because you know it’s going to inevitably move west as you get close to the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: If that continues then futility records are in play. Feb looks warm too on weeklies. Only thing that could muck it up is some March storm. Getting 0 snow is probably a long shot though but fingers crossed In some ways it would actually stink if storm 2 next week was an inch of snow to heavy rain and that’s what blew the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The 12z gfs did shift east but it’s really now just in line with other models. Honestly the model agreement of the two storms next week is pretty good right now and they look almost identical except the second one starts out a little colder. A lot of time to see the trends. Hopefully they are bumps east not west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 This winter is a carbon copy of 97-98. Wet and warm. 01-02 was dry . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: In some ways it would actually stink if storm 2 next week was an inch of snow to heavy rain and that’s what blew the record. Kinda like how March 98 blew the record. Pointless snow that melted in 6 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 we should probably focus on the favorable period coming up before discussing how said period may break down in 15-20 days 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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