Winterweatherlover Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Ukie has snow on Monday. Came Southeast. Didn't expect that which makes me wonder what Euro will do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Ukie is so flat and far southeast that the NW parts of the subforum barely get any precip, thats what it would probably take for the coast to get snow in this pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The early week storm looks to originate in the south unless you think the models are correcting toward establishing a more dominant primary low in the lakes? I'm not trying to be pessimistic. But if you look at the 500mb chart, the ULL is over Chicago on Sun. night. That is unfavorable for us except with the deepest arctic airmass in place, in which case we'd get IP and ZR. The secondary SLP tracking near or south of us doesn't save us because the lower and mid-levels have already been torched due to the position of the ULL and primary SLP. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 So we have the 12z JMA and 0z UK showing snowstorms locally. That's a start! EPS and GEPS had a few hits at 12z on the individuals too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: I'm not trying to be pessimistic. But if you look at the 500mb chart, the ULL is over Chicago on Sun. night. That is unfavorable for us except with the deepest arctic airmass in place, in which case we'd get IP and ZR. The secondary SLP tracking near or south of us doesn't save us because the lower and mid-levels have already been torched due to the position of the ULL and primary SLP. On the UKMET there's a south-southeasterly wind which really looks like a warm wind out ahead of deep southern storm center and around the high pressure out in the Atlantic. I would think most of us will have temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s at the very least, possibly warmer than that. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Euro still very warm for the sunday night storm. Only extreme NW New Jersey gets a little bit of snow before changing over to heavy rain on the run. It's also showing a warm cutter for the mid next week storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 If the Ops are correct we will clearly remain on the wrong side of the boundry for an substantial snow if any at all for some areas closer to the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Morning thoughts… It will become partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 51° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° Temperatures will average above normal during the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.8° Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.6° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 If the Ops are correct we will clearly remain on the wrong side of the boundry for an substantial snow if any at all for some areas closer to the coast.IMO, the Sunday-Monday storm is rain south of I-84, much too warm. The one to look for is Thursday, that may have a chance to thread the needle if everything goes exactly right. If nothing happens by 2/2 it’s close the shades time for awhile. The new GEFS is very ugly after that date. Gotta agree with Allsnow, the window is 1/26-2/2, if nothing happens, we most likely wait until early March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 New York City's latest winter season futility rankings: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 45 minutes ago, snowman19 said: IMO, the Sunday-Monday storm is rain south of I-84, much too warm. The one to look for is Thursday, that may have a chance to thread the needle if everything goes exactly right. If nothing happens by 2/2 it’s close the shades time for awhile. The new GEFS is very ugly after that date. Gotta agree with Allsnow, the window is 1/26-2/2, if nothing happens, we most likely wait until early March It's just one of those winters. Nothing much is likely to happen. Reminds me of the 90's a lot. It's even warmer than that. Probably get a little inch or two event in March. They can't buy a flake even in much of Maine, let alone NJ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 46 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: It's just one of those winters. Nothing much is likely to happen. Reminds me of the 90's a lot. It's even warmer than that. Probably get a little inch or two event in March. They can't buy a flake even in much of Maine, let alone NJ. Same ol pattern most of the winter outside of the arctic blast around Xmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.(39/46) or +9. Month to date is 43.7[+9.6]. Should be 43.1[+9.4] by the 26th. Reached 44 here yesterday. Today: 49-51, wind w.-breezy, variable skies, 41 tomorrow AM. No BN T's till at least the 26th. No snow either except by surprise before then. The 28th. has the best % to be BN by at least 1 stinkin' degree. 32 Days since the last BN one. First days of February are uncertain. 43*(77%RH) here at 6am(drizzle) 44* at 7am. 47* at 9am. 48* at 9:30am. 51* at Noon. 52* at 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 We do have a window to score something at the end of the month. Can't express how much this winter feels like 97/98 did (if that late March fluke did not happen CPK would have already experienced a shut out). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Same ol pattern most of the winter outside of the arctic blast around Xmas.Since mid-November, it has been a parade of cutters, inland runners and warmth outside of the 4 day arctic snap at the end of December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Since mid-November, it has been a parade of cutters, inland runners and warmth outside of the 4 day arctic snap at the end of December Inland areas are also struggling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Inland areas are also struggling Rockland County is. I’m 35 miles NW of NYC and we’ve yet to see a plowable snowfall. The last one was 3/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Rockland County is. I’m 35 miles NW of NYC and we’ve yet to see a plowable snowfall. The last one was 3/12 Ours was last January. We had snow SB Sunday but it did not accum on roads...so a year here essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Ours was last January. We had snow SB Sunday but it did not accum on roads...so a year here essentially. Yeah all we had was the early December storm which was 0.5 to 3 depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Inland areas are also struggling Yup. I'm in Dutchess county 20 miles north of 84 and I have only 5 inches so far. It's something but still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah all we had was the early December storm which was 0.5 to 3 depending on location. Just on the grass here. About an inch. The ol wet roads snow events are definitely becoming more common here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Ours was last January. We had snow SB Sunday but it did not accum on roads...so a year here essentially.The lakes aren’t even frozen here. I’ve lived in Sloatsburg my entire life and I don’t ever remember the lakes not being frozen by this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The lakes aren’t even frozen here. I’ve lived in Sloatsburg my entire life and I don’t ever remember the lakes not being frozen by this time Really? I mean we have had some absolute furnaces the past 50 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 We lucked out somewhat here in Warren County with the December 11 and 15 events (about 2” and 3.5-4.0” respectively), but my last 6”+ event was almost two years ago in February 2021. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 54 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This winter is a carbon copy of 97-98. Wet and warm. 01-02 was dry 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Inland areas are also struggling We did well in December but it completely reversed after the mid dec event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: We do have a window to score something at the end of the month. Can't express how much this winter feels like 97/98 did (if that late March fluke did not happen CPK would have already experienced a shut out). Even 97-98 had some chances in January though. I also remember getting a bit of snow right after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 We did well in December but it completely reversed after the mid dec event Everywhere south of Orange County got jack diddly from that event. All rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Everywhere south of Orange County got jack diddly from that event. All rain Yeah and it was mostly western Orange County that saw anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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