January 2023

[the_other_guy]

NY Post has a whole story for tomorrows paper on the impending snow record.

 

Prepare to be bombarded in your newsfeed if you are on social media

[bkviking]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and unseasonably mild. Temperatures will likely reach or exceed 50° in much of the region. After another mild day on Thursday, a storm will bring rain Thursday night into Friday. Readings will remain above normal.

The lengthening measurable snow drought will persist in New York City and Philadelphia for at least several more days. The next period of interest could be January 22-24. Ensemble support for measurable snow had recently increased to moderate levels. However, the National Blend of Models shows no accumulations for New York City. A second storm could also impact the region a few days later.

A cooler pattern will likely develop during the last 5-7 days of January. The duration of this cooler period remains uncertain. Should ridging develop in the East, a warming trend could develop during in early February following a cool start to the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions could fade to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +1.65 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.878   today.

On January 15 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.467 (RMM). The January 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.711 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.8° (7.1° above normal).

 

Well - though it still fluctuates - that’s weakest this - ENSO has become in a long time, Don. 

[uofmiami]

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

NY Post has a whole story for tomorrows paper on the impending snow record.

 

Prepare to be bombarded in your newsfeed if you are on social media

Link for those interested:

https://nypost.com/2023/01/17/we-rely-on-that-some-new-yorkers-mourn-the-citys-near-historic-snow-drought/

[LibertyBell]

44 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Nobody, I hope, is looking for a big winter this year. But a La Nina and an El Nino can yield a similar synoptic pattern. My words not referencing sea surface temperature anomalies but the actual jet stream and real weather outcomes.

WX/PT

No but we're (somewhat tepidly) hoping for a big winter next year.

Regardless my favorite years are la ninas after el ninos because they give the dramatic change from a super hot and very dry summer to a snowy winter.  Those are my all time favorites.  Nothing better than going from 100+ degrees down to the coast in the summer to 20"+ blizzards down to the coast in the winter!

 

 

[CIK62]

EURO WEEKLIES for February:

Meanwhile the CFSv2 has completely flipped during last two days:    Above MD Line and east of Mississippi River in question.

[SnoSki14]

We should easily beat the snow drought record. 

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We should easily beat the snow drought record. 

We will see snow by the time this month ends.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We will see snow by the time this month ends.

 There is little to nothing to support that presently

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

 There is little to nothing to support that presently

There are a lot of storm threats but hopefully one of them is cold enough. 

[the_other_guy]

I don’t like the term snow drought.

 

It isn’t intellectually honest. there has been plenty of moisture. It isn’t frozen because we are experiencing never-ending warmth.

The warmth is the story, not the lack of snow or the lack of moisture to create snow

 

[Rjay]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

 There is little to nothing to support that presently

The pattern actually doesn't look half bad if what's currently modeled is accurate.  Just need to be on the colder side of the gradient.   Could easily end up with a bunch of rainers though.  

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The pattern actually doesn't look half bad if what's currently modeled is accurate.  Just need to be on the colder side of the gradient.   Could easily end up with a bunch of rainers though.  

my concern is the SE ridge/Atlantic Ridge trends stronger in the medium range so the storm track ends up NW of where modeled in the LR

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is becoming more interesting for late this weekend 

stronger S/W with more SLPs off the coast. decent 5-10 members bring significant snowfall just NW or even to the NYC metro

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

my concern is the SE ridge/Atlantic Ridge trends stronger in the medium range so the storm track ends up NW of where modeled in the LR

Yeah that's what I'm counting on

[donsutherland1]

On 1/3/2023 at 9:05 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Almost certainly, the RRWT map will be wrong. It frequently dumps the Northern Hemisphere's cold into North America. Its current 6-10 day outlook provides a good illustration of that tendency.

The 6-10 day period will likely be cooler than the first week of January, but there remains little support for a cold outcome. The EPS and GEFS are in very strong agreement that temperatures will descend closer to normal but the overall 6-10 day period will be warmer than normal.

I suspect that the problem with the RRWT tool is that it treats all Rossby Waves alike. Instead, origin and duration matter. From a recent paper:

Higher than normal medium-range skill scores are often associated with the presence of long-lasting RWPs (about 8 days) in the initial conditions, very often triggered far away in the west Pacific (RWP_pac_eu). Bad medium-range skill scores are instead associated with shorter RWPs coming from central US or the west Atlantic. The analysis of probabilistic skill scores also supports an increase in predictive skill associated with long RWPs coming from the west Pacific, even at longer ranges, with better skill up to week 3, suggesting a possible link with MJO events.

 

For purposes of illustration, here's how the January 8-13, 2023 period turned out. As noted regarding the RRWT's bias, it dumped the cold into North America when, in fact, the cold wound up in Eurasia as suggested by the EPS ensembles.

 

[Nibor]

20 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I don’t like the term snow drought.

 

It isn’t intellectually honest. there has been plenty of moisture. It isn’t frozen because we are experiencing never-ending warmth.

The warmth is the story, not the lack of snow or the lack of moisture to create snow

 

[eduggs]

34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is becoming more interesting for late this weekend 

stronger S/W with more SLPs off the coast. decent 5-10 members bring significant snowfall just NW or even to the NYC metro

 

Still minor changes aloft. Not big enough changes for areas outside of SNE unfortunately. But better than it shifting NW I suppose.

[eduggs]

Locally I'm approaching 10 months since the last 1" of snow and 24 months since the last 6" event. I decent event in 3 years. Just brutal. 

[Rjay]

43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

my concern is the SE ridge/Atlantic Ridge trends stronger in the medium range so the storm track ends up NW of where modeled in the LR

Yep. That's why I said we could easily end up with a bunch of rainers.  

[brooklynwx99]

17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yep. That's why I said we could easily end up with a bunch of rainers.  

this is high risk/high reward for us. i’m a lot more optimistic than a few days ago

those on the cold side of the gradient can really cash in. NE is favored but I think we’re in a good spot 

[eduggs]

For the moment, I'm firmly of the opinion that the Sun-Mon event will be rain for the coastal plane through our area. I don't like the trough axis being so far west - it virtually guarantees a primary slp near the Lakes. This looks too much like so many events so far this year.

That said, there is some counter evidence to potentially threaten the narrative. The 18z ICON, 12z UK, and 12z CMC were all pretty close to a wintry event. The 12z EC wasn't too far off. And the 12z JMA looked like a snowstorm. So far the 0z ICON shifted slightly the wrong way. But any additional movement SE and/or colder for the rest of the 0z suite would put us close to the game.

[Winterweatherlover]

44 minutes ago, eduggs said:

For the moment, I'm firmly of the opinion that the Sun-Mon event will be rain for the coastal plane through our area. I don't like the trough axis being so far west - it virtually guarantees a primary slp near the Lakes. This looks too much like so many events so far this year.

That said, there is some counter evidence to potentially threaten the narrative. The 18z ICON, 12z UK, and 12z CMC were all pretty close to a wintry event. The 12z EC wasn't too far off. And the 12z JMA looked like a snowstorm. So far the 0z ICON shifted slightly the wrong way. But any additional movement SE and/or colder for the rest of the 0z suite would put us close to the game.

0Z CMC is a coastal hugger, only the gfs has a low in the lakes.  Starting to think coastal hugger or slightly inland runner  is most likely outcome here. 

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

0Z CMC is a coastal hugger, only the gfs has a low in the lakes.  Starting to think coastal hugger or slightly inland runner  is most likely outcome here. 

Could very well be. But the 0z was a slight step back from 12z in terms of wintry hopes locally. The trof has sharpened up, strengthening the primary SLP and increasing warm SW winds.

Not the 0z I was hoping for.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Could very well be. But the 0z was a slight step back from 12z in terms of wintry hopes locally on all guidance so far. The trof has sharpened up, strengthening the primary SLP and increasing warm SW winds.

Not the 0z I was hoping for.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Could very well be. But the 0z was a slight step back from 12z in terms of wintry hopes locally. The trof has sharpened up, strengthening the primary SLP and increasing warm SW winds.

Not the 0z I was hoping for.

I don't expect wintry weather for the immediate metro with storm 1, but I think the NW parts of the subforum have a chance. Storm 2 I'm not even going to begin to guess precip type this far out.

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

0Z CMC is a coastal hugger, only the gfs has a low in the lakes.  Starting to think coastal hugger or slightly inland runner  is most likely outcome here. 

Yeah the 0z CMC gives northwest NJ 1 to 2 inches of snow before changing to rain. All rain for NYC. Problem is there just isn't much cold air in place. NW areas could get away with that and see a little front end snow, but I doubt the NYC area can.

I see the same problem for the mid next week storm. I think we're gonna have to wait until the pattern changes and we actually have cold air in place in very late January before we have a better chance, but of course we'll keep an eye on the 2 storms before the colder pattern because you never know for sure at this range. 

[Winterweatherlover]

At least the northeast ski areas would finally get replenished

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011800&fh=222&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don't expect wintry weather for the immediate metro with storm 1, but I think the NW parts of the subforum have a chance. Storm 2 I'm not even going to begin to guess precip type this far out.

Lots can change as weather forecasting is unpredictable. But storm 1 is not looking promising except maybe distant N or NE suburbs with some ZR to start and inverted trof snow showers to end.

I'm more interested in storm 2, but the trof axis has been immovable for days of model runs and it is too far west.

A break from the rain and some decent cold still looks to be 10 days away, if it comes at all. I'm hoping for some positive surprises.

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah the 0z CMC gives northwest NJ 1 to 2 inches of snow before changing to rain. All rain for NYC. Problem is there just isn't much cold air in place. NW areas could get away with that and see a little front end snow, but I doubt the NYC area can.

I see the same problem for the mid next week storm. I think we're gonna have to wait until the pattern changes and we actually have cold air in place in very late January before we have a better chance, but of course we'll keep an eye on the 2 storms before the colder pattern because you never know for sure at this range. 

To me, the problem is that every wave takes the same path: CO to IL to Ontario. The upper levels drive SLP formation, which in turn drives fronts and airmass advection.

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

To me, the problem is that every wave takes the same path: CO to IL to Ontario. The upper levels drive SLP formation, which in turn drives fronts and airmass advection.

The early week storm looks to originate in the south unless you think the models are correcting toward establishing a more dominant primary low in the lakes?