vegan_edible Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 god dang, let's cross our fingers, i think this one COULD and i mean COULD sparingly be in reach for us. Lines up nice with my girlfriends birthday too... fingers crossed 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Early on some model runs teased us with this thursday's storm, but of course it's ending up warm. Same for the sunday into monday storm, but now all models give us rain. I'm guessing it's the same thing for the day 9 storm now, and it'll trend warmer as it gets closer like all other storms this winter. But of course we'll keep an eye on it just in case. You never know for sure with weather. The good news is that it appears likely that we're finally gonna have a cold pattern for a little while (maybe a week) late in the month after that potential day 9 storm. Hopefully finally having some extended cold will give us a better chance of scoring. It might not work out, but at least it gives me a little more hope right now. The Sunday-Monday storm is still pretty different than what we've been seeing (cutters and rain to Montreal) at least as of now the NW parts of the subforum are still in play with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's been warm all along. This is the first time a model is giving us snow for the late week storm. I'm not sure what you mean. The storm for late this week or late next week? I was just making the point that a week ago there were some model runs that teased us with some colder solutions for this week's late week storm (the 19th). I remember back then saying I thought it would trend warmer, and it has. Everything shows rain for this thursday. I think you misunderstood my post. So now I'm saying I think the late next week storm (day 9 storm) will trend warmer as well, since the pattern hasn't changed much yet by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Pattern on the maps for late January and beyond now starting to take on a very 1966-ish feel. Anyone else here personally remember winter 1966? 65-66? WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I'm not sure what you mean. The storm for late this week or late next week? I was just making the point that a week ago there were some model runs that teased us with some colder solutions for this week's late week storm (the 19th). I remember back then saying I thought it would trend warmer, and it has. Everything shows rain for this thursday. I think you misunderstood my post. So now I'm saying I think the late next week storm (day 9 storm) will trend warmer as well, since the pattern hasn't changed much yet by that point. No I'm saying the 26th storm has looked warm all along on the gfs so it hasn't really teased us. This euro run is the first showing a snowy outcome I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 The 26th is now the day to watch IMO. CMC shows rain changing over to snow as the low exits while the ECMWF shows a bomb in the benchmark. My concern is the lack of a good 50/50 low but HP around the storm (antecedent and incoming) is cold enough. The question being will the next runs trend towards a coastal hugger or track the low over interior southeast NY State. WX/PTThe clue I always look for to see if there’s actually a good chance at a coastal snowstorm is the GFS. At this range, the GFS is almost always way suppressed /OTS and a miss. Then as you move closer in time it trends towards the other models. If it’s showing a big hit or a coastal hugger, that’s usually a bad sign because its correction at this range is almost always west as you draw closer to the event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: No I'm saying the 26th storm has looked warm all along on the gfs so it hasn't really teased us. This euro run is the first showing a snowy outcome I believe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 the location of the TPV on the EPS is pretty much perfect the blocking shifts it into SE Canada, which is a great spot to provide confluence split flow showing up with the STJ being tapped into here 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the location of the TPV on the EPS is pretty much perfect the blocking shifts it into SE Canada, which is a great spot to provide confluence split flow showing up with the STJ being tapped into here Real nice look from the EPS Mean. Now the trick is to get it to stick as we move to days 7, 5 and 3. Up until now we've not been able to hold a decent look for more than 2-3 cycles. If we can have the EPS mean look like this or something similar on the 12Z cycle this Sunday or Monday I might start to get more interested. No doubt this looks good but we need to get it to hold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Pattern on the maps for late January and beyond now starting to take on a very 1966-ish feel. Anyone else here personally remember winter 1966? 65-66? WX/PT Yes I do (I'm old :). Lived in Randallstown MD. for the "Blizzard of 66" as it came to be known. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Yea, it’s looking less likely now that we see a major SSW, i.e. February, 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 @Allsnow Here’s the short window (1/27-2/2) you pointed out. I know you feel the same way, but if we are to score before March, that’s when it needs to happen 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 SSW has been the buzzword for about 15 yrs here but it only sometimes works out ala March 2018 or Feb 2010 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, Brian5671 said: SSW has been the buzzword for about 15 yrs here but it only sometimes works out ala March 2018 or Feb 2010 Yeah, I think everyone understands that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 At least there are events to track. I like the interior for some snow for the Sunday into Monday event. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: At least there are events to track. I like the interior for some snow for the Sunday into Monday event. Yep better than tracking rain to Montreal 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Listen to Dr. Butler when she posts about anything ssw related. Ignore most others. She quite literally wrote the book on them. It's a possibility, just as it has been, and continues to be. Nothing more. A legitimate threat if she's even mentioning anything about it. It's also something that requires monitoring over many days worth of trends. Operational models are also worth noting due to more vertical layers then the ensembles from my understanding. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I am hearing different numbers for the longest streak in Central Park without snow. 322 days and 332 days. Apparently the longest streak is 332 days, Jan 19- Dec 15 of 2020. This would mean they have 18 more days before the longest streak is broken. That would put them into February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Pattern on the maps for late January and beyond now starting to take on a very 1966-ish feel. Anyone else here personally remember winter 1966? 65-66? WX/PT No but I researched it-- that was an el nino. Our big winter was the winter after that in 1966-67, classic very hot and dry summer followed by a snowy winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 hours ago, WIN said: Yes I do (I'm old :). Lived in Randallstown MD. for the "Blizzard of 66" as it came to be known. Blizzard of 1966 and Blizzard of 1967 the following year? I knew 1965-66 had more snow south of us (an el nino) and we got our big winter the following year after a super hot summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: SSW has been the buzzword for about 15 yrs here but it only sometimes works out ala March 2018 or Feb 2010 Is that why 2010 was so crazy? el nino major blocking and SSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: Is that why 2010 was so crazy? el nino major blocking and SSW? Yep-thre was a big SSW in January which led to the wild Feb/Mar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, I think everyone understands that can we categorize SSW too? There should be categories for them as follows: LECS (Cat 1) SSW SECS (Cat 2) SSW MECS (Cat 3) SSW HECS (Cat 4) SSW BECS (Cat 5) SSW I wonder what the return period is for them per category? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 35 minutes ago, lee59 said: I am hearing different numbers for the longest streak in Central Park without snow. 322 days and 332 days. Apparently the longest streak is 332 days, Jan 19- Dec 15 of 2020. This would mean they have 18 more days before the longest streak is broken. That would put them into February. I don't even understand how it could not have snowed after middle January. There must be a measurement error somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Tomorrow will be partly sunny and unseasonably mild. Temperatures will likely reach or exceed 50° in much of the region. After another mild day on Thursday, a storm will bring rain Thursday night into Friday. Readings will remain above normal. The lengthening measurable snow drought will persist in New York City and Philadelphia for at least several more days. The next period of interest could be January 22-24. Ensemble support for measurable snow had recently increased to moderate levels. However, the National Blend of Models shows no accumulations for New York City. A second storm could also impact the region a few days later. A cooler pattern will likely develop during the last 5-7 days of January. The duration of this cooler period remains uncertain. Should ridging develop in the East, a warming trend could develop during in early February following a cool start to the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions could fade to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +1.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.878 today. On January 15 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.467 (RMM). The January 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.711 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.8° (7.1° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I don't even understand how it could not have snowed after middle January. There must be a measurement error somewhere. there was not much snow winter of 19-20. There was a snow even around 1/20/20 that dropped a few inches-I think that was the last storm of that winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: No but I researched it-- that was an el nino. Our big winter was the winter after that in 1966-67, classic very hot and dry summer followed by a snowy winter! Nobody, I hope, is looking for a big winter this year. But a La Nina and an El Nino can yield a similar synoptic pattern. My words not referencing sea surface temperature anomalies but the actual jet stream and real weather outcomes. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: No but I researched it-- that was an el nino. Our big winter was the winter after that in 1966-67, classic very hot and dry summer followed by a snowy winter! That was my first winter! I don't remember it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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