snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 It’s a lock that we get past the record for latest date for measurable snow…1/29 is the all time record…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 CMC now shows a coastal next Monday like Euro had been showing, it's still rain for the coast though, looks good for interior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: 1/29 is the all time record…. Ugh….i thought it was 1/26. Then it’s not a lock unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think we get measurable before Feb 1 but it will be close. Is Central Park the only recording station in our area that has not received snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: This may be a shot from the ECMWF. Maybe our friend SE ridge can flex and give us a light event? This is probably the storm the CMC now has as a hit. The CMC is a little inside the benchmark so if the Euro and CMC met toward the middle it might be a needle threader. Obviously a longshot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 12Z CMC trolling today (has 2 storms for our region). https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011712&fh=228&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 im interested to see what happens with the 12z EURO. Maybe last nights was an outlier and the storm changes trajectory for Monday and we end up with some snowfall. Wishful thinking, close only counts in horseshoes rights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Don is the Score the WSI index? Also I see a 1997-1997 in there, is that 1997-1998? No. It's not the WSI Index. The score is the standard deviation departure for temperatures and snowfall. It should read 1997-1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 12Z CMC trolling today (has 2 storms for our region). https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011712&fh=228&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Ukie also is a hit for the interior. A few inches just north and west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 18 minutes ago, lee59 said: Is Central Park the only recording station in our area that has not received snow? JFK has not received measurable snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Maybe the SSW chance wasn’t as strong as I thought…https://twitter.com/harryspoelstra/status/1615262255649624066?s=46&t=Vmu7zrbEvS3iHI1vsA6tKg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: JFK has not received measurable snow. Ok thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Might be a window for something between the 27th and 2nd….If 1/27-2/2 doesn’t work out, we will probably have to wait until early March for the next window. The pattern looks to get hostile after 2/2 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 39 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Ukie also is a hit for the interior. A few inches just north and west I see that as well. Interested to see what the 12Z euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 33 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If 1/27-2/2 doesn’t work out, we will probably have to wait until early March for the next window. The pattern looks to get hostile after 2/2 Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 55 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If 1/27-2/2 doesn’t work out, we will probably have to wait until early March for the next window. The pattern looks to get hostile after 2/2 Hostile? Yikes. Sounds like a torch. Then you have more things going against you when March arrives, although it has been slow to warm up around here in recent years as spring approaches. A shutout is a very real possibility. Do we hope for a garbage time touchdown to get rid of the goose egg or just embrace the chance that history will be made? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Hostile? Yikes. Sounds like a torch. Then you have more things going against you when March arrives, although it has been slow to warm up around here in recent years as spring approaches. A shutout is a very real possibility. Do we hope for a garbage time touchdown to get rid of the goose egg or just embrace the chance that history will be made?History. I don’t want a few one-out singles while you’re down ten in the ninth.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said: I see that as well. Interested to see what the 12Z euro shows. Super warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Active pattern coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Euro has a bomb at D9, looks good for the coast. Could this be our season saver? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Super warmFor the 1st one early next week yes. Then it bombs the Thursday low and jackpots the area. Guess we’ll see but I wouldn’t get too excited with the way this winter has gone over a day 9 op run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Early on some model runs teased us with this thursday's storm, but of course it's ending up warm. Same for the sunday into monday storm, but now all models give us rain. I'm guessing it's the same thing for the day 9 storm now, and it'll trend warmer as it gets closer like all other storms this winter. But of course we'll keep an eye on it just in case. You never know for sure with weather. The good news is that it appears likely that we're finally gonna have a cold pattern for a little while (maybe a week) late in the month after that potential day 9 storm. Hopefully finally having some extended cold will give us a better chance of scoring. It might not work out, but at least it gives me a little more hope right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 For the 1st one early next week yes. Then it bombs the Thursday low and jackpots the area. Guess we’ll see but I wouldn’t get too excited with the way this winter has gone over a day 9 op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Early on some model runs teased us with this thursday's storm, but of course it's ending up warm. Same for the sunday into monday storm, but now all models give us rain. I'm guessing it's the same thing for the day 9 storm now, and it'll trend warmer as it gets closer like all other storms this winter. But of course we'll keep an eye on it just in case. You never know for sure with weather. The good news is that it appears likely that we're finally gonna have a cold pattern for a little while (maybe a week) late in the month after that potential day 9 storm. Hopefully finally having some extended cold will give us a better chance of scoring. It might not work out, but at least it gives me a little more hope right now. It's been warm all along. This is the first time a model is giving us snow for the late week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 .In a way lol the good that about getting jackpotted on day 9 runs is it shows you exactly what’s not going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just nice to watch the transformation of the Pacific on the euro. Which the day 9 thing could be related to, or perhaps a part of in some way. May that continue in the days ahead for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 The 26th is now the day to watch IMO. CMC shows rain changing over to snow as the low exits while the ECMWF shows a bomb in the benchmark. My concern is the lack of a good 50/50 low but HP around the storm (antecedent and incoming) is cold enough. The question being will the next runs trend towards a coastal hugger or track the low over interior southeast NY State. WX/PT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Looking at todays 12z runs I'd feel pretty good if I lived near Albany for Monday but also know it could trend toward Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 The coast's chance is maybe 1/26, CMC/Euro both show it but so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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