North and West Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 We’ve had 3 months of “ best looks” and “great patterns” day 7+ and here we sit on 1/17 and NYC has a trace of snow. TotalOne thing I’ve learned from watching winter weather here my whole life - of knowing nothing other than just life and experience - is to not trust anything past five days other than if a long range forecast calls for really warm or really cold.Outside of that, it’s just educated guessing. If a temperature is within average, snow can occur if the storm track is right. The looks and patterns you speak of are just like, ok, cool, we might get an environment that’s more favorable to snow, but there’s no guarantee it will happen.Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 One thing I’ve learned from watching winter weather here my whole life - of knowing nothing other than just life and experience - is to not trust anything past five days other than if a long range forecast calls for really warm or really cold.Outside of that, it’s just educated guessing. If a temperature is within average, snow can occur if the storm track is right. The looks and patterns you speak of are just like, ok, cool, we might get an environment that’s more favorable to snow, but there’s no guarantee it will happen.Thank you for coming to my TED Talk..This is all true, however at some point this winter has to put up or shut up. Since November all we have been hearing about is these great snow and cold patterns and amazing setups, since then we’ve seen a 4 day arctic cold snap and its been snowless. I don’t think the end of this month looks great at all. That puts us to February and one month left of met winter. Eventually we are going to run out of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.(37/47) or +9. Month to date is 43.9[+9.8]. Should be 43.3[+9.5] by the 25th. Reached 47 here yesterday. Today: 44-47, wind w., p. cloudy, 44 tomorrow AM. Highest % for <32 in the next 16 days: Jan. 28 0% till the 24th., except slight on Jan. 21. Needless to say snow is going nowhere with these T's. All the last 5 days of the month will do is kill chances to end up as warmest ever January. 37*(45%RH) here at 6am. 38* at 7am. 40* at 9am. 42* at Noon. 44* at 3pm. Reached 45* at 7pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I know it's a long range clown map, however would be fitting for a la Nina (cutter/SE slider) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I know it's a long range clown map, however would be fitting for a la Nina (cutter/SE slider)That 6z run was the GFS doing its normal suppressed bias BS. No other models are suppressed. Outlier run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That 6z run was the GFS doing its normal suppressed bias BS. No other models are suppressed. Outlier run Yeah BUT la Ninas do typically do that. One thing I am keeping my eye on is this MJO wave. High amplitude phases 2 and 3 in a la Nina below. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 This may be a shot from the ECMWF. Maybe our friend SE ridge can flex and give us a light event? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That 6z run was the GFS doing its normal suppressed bias BS. No other models are suppressed. Outlier run Check the ensembles and get back to me. Thanks. The pattern is changing towards the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 fwiw...two day cocorahs snowfall ending 2PM yesterday... out of our area but an idea of what that near miss Ocean storm did and moral victory who were looking for this. I think Logan had 3.5" for this event. click for clarity. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I know it's a long range clown map, however would be fitting for a la Nina (cutter/SE slider) Gfs has been spitting out some record strat warming recently. Here's the 06z. Need to see if this continues until the euro op can start picking it up too. It's within the target timeframe. In addition, the westerly QBO ones are the least predictable on modeling. Gotta keep an eye on things between now and Feb on models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 48 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is all true, however at some point this winter has to put up or shut up. Since November all we have been hearing about is these great snow and cold patterns and amazing setups, since then we’ve seen a 4 day arctic cold snap and its been snowless. I don’t think the end of this month looks great at all. That puts us to February and one month left of met winter. Eventually we are going to run out of time These "non winters" have the same themes-the pattern is always 10 days+ away. We see that on today's runs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Check the ensembles and get back to me. Thanks. The pattern is changing towards the end of the month. You’ve been saying this since November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You’ve been saying this since November To be fair, December WAS a good pattern (la Ninas are typically front loaded). The first storm did give snow to half the forum The second storm was wayyyy too intense and squashed our true potential which was the 3rd storm. From 2000 through 2018 all the luck was on our side, we were just due to strike out on a fastball down the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: To be fair, December WAS a good pattern (la Ninas are typically front loaded). The first storm did give snow to half the forum The second storm was wayyyy too intense and squashed our true potential which was the 3rd storm. From 2000 through 2018 all the luck was on our side, we were just due to strike out on a fastball down the middle. It's been mostly rough sledding since the epic March 2018 pattern. Feb 2021 had 3-4 good weeks outside of that it's been some good storms but no longer lasting pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Might be a window for something between the 27th and 2nd…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It's been mostly rough sledding since the epic March 2018 pattern. Feb 2021 had 3-4 good weeks outside of that it's been some good storms but no longer lasting pattern Yup. It's a shock to the system for people who were not around for periods like this from 1970 through 1999. Regression to the mean is painful! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Yup. It's a shock to the system for people who were not around for periods like this from 1970 through 1999. Regression to the mean is painful!. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 This is all true, however at some point this winter has to put up or shut up. Since November all we have been hearing about is these great snow and cold patterns and amazing setups, since then we’ve seen a 4 day arctic cold snap and its been snowless. I don’t think the end of this month looks great at all. That puts us to February and one month left of met winter. Eventually we are going to run out of timeProbably not going to happen. If it hasn’t happened yet, why start now? I’ve seen this movie before.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, North and West said: Probably not going to happen. If it hasn’t happened yet, why start now? I’ve seen this movie before. . We have about 10-15 days. If a decent pattern doesn't show up by then, it's probably not going to. Basing this on other ratter winters like 01-02, 11-12 where the crappy pattern just continued on and on. At least we had great springs those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: We’ve had 3 months of “ best looks” and “great patterns” day 7+ and here we sit on 1/17 and NYC has a trace of snow. Total We have to go with historical precedent at this point so I'd say it's likely we end up with under 20 inches of snow and quite possible it's under 10 inches when the season is finished. Of course under 5 inches if it's historically bad for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We have about 10-15 days. If a decent pattern doesn't show up by then, it's probably not going to. Basing this on other ratter winters like 01-02, 11-12 where the crappy pattern just continued on and on. At least we had great springs those years. Yep, I would say it's extremely likely we end up with under 10 inches this month if we don't get a few inches this month. That sounds obvious but that's historical precedent for this area. Under 5 inches will become a strong possibility too. If we don't get at least an inch this month, I don't believe we will get to 10 for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Yup. It's a shock to the system for people who were not around for periods like this from 1970 through 1999. Regression to the mean is painful! 1970-1999 (really just the 70s and 80s) were historically bad. If that happens again it means the effects of climate change are becoming stronger and we need to expect this more often. I do believe that by 2050 if not earlier NYC average snowfall will be in the teens and probably under 10 inches by 2080. There is no such thing as "regression to the mean" when it comes to the climate-- it is always changing, there is no magic "mean" where it settles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: To be fair, December WAS a good pattern (la Ninas are typically front loaded). The first storm did give snow to half the forum The second storm was wayyyy too intense and squashed our true potential which was the 3rd storm. From 2000 through 2018 all the luck was on our side, we were just due to strike out on a fastball down the middle. Extremes are the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 hours ago, wdrag said: fwiw...two day cocorahs snowfall ending 2PM yesterday... out of our area but an idea of what that near miss Ocean storm did and moral victory who were looking for this. I think Logan had 3.5" for this event. click for clarity. I keep asking this lol-- what kept this storm from going further west? Not enough SE ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 hours ago, wdrag said: fwiw...two day cocorahs snowfall ending 2PM yesterday... out of our area but an idea of what that near miss Ocean storm did and moral victory who were looking for this. I think Logan had 3.5" for this event. click for clarity. I see a 5.5 near Plymouth that seems to be a snow peak area for them just like Monmouth County is for us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: NYC's latest snow season futility ranking to date: Don is the Score the WSI index? Also I see a 1997-1997 in there, is that 1997-1998? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don is the Score the WSI index? Also I see a 1997-1997 in there, is that 1997-1998? Must be. 96-97 had a few inches by now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 It’s a lock that we get past the record for latest date for measurable snow… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: It’s a lock that we get past the record for latest date for measurable snow… Did we ever have a 0 or a T both in December and January? The obvious answer would be no but I guess it could have happened in 2011-12 after the October snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: Did we ever have a 0 or a T both in December and January? The obvious answer would be no but I guess it could have happened in 2011-12 after the October snowstorm. I think we get measurable before Feb 1 but it will be close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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