January 2023

[Intensewind002]

Looks kinda subtropical offshore

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=vis_swir

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, jconsor said:

As far as the snowfall in the 1980s that produced 8.6" in NYC and only changed to drizzle at the very end... I think you are talking about the Jan 22, 1987 snowstorm.  This was a huge forecast bust and (along with Hurricane Gloria) the storm that got me interested in weather as a young child growing up in Long Island (Roslyn).  I was in first grade at the time.  I distinctly remember hearing forecasts for a quick slushy inch or two then changing to heavy rain, and being the only child in my school who brought snow boots. 

I recall that unlike many heavy snow events, there wasn't a couple hours of light snow at the beginning.  Nearly from the beginning it just poured down huge flakes and started piling up very quickly (1"+ per hour for many hours).  It started snowing in the morning and by the time our school day was supposed to end in mid-afternoon, the snow was coming down too fast for the unprepared plows to keep up (plus there are some significant hills that the school buses in our town need to ascend).  Thus we were stuck at school for about six hours! The staff brought up mattresses for us to sleep on the floor of the school gym.  

In the end we got about 9-10".  The Jan 22, 1987 snowstorm paralyzed many areas along the I-95 corridor from DC to NYC (Boston was too far east relative to storm track and quickly changed to rain).  It was followed four days later by another heavy snowstorm in the southern and eastern mid-Atlantic.

Thanks that was amazing-- one of our rare daytime heavy snowstorms!  And a very rare positive bust in the 80s!

Didn't that storm keep going all day and end early in the evening? That's what I remember.  I used to call 976-1212 for my local weather conditions and updated forecasts back then, the local conditions updated every hour.  I called the 516, 212 and 914 area codes for that number to get the conditions at Islip, Central Park and White Plains lol.  I would average out Central Park and Islip to try to figure out the numbers for Nassau County-- it's all I had back then.

 

Do you have any idea what the 7" snowstorm at LGA could have been?  Maybe it was the same snowstorm-- but I thought that one started in the late afternoon or early evening and went on all night and ended the following morning?

 

I just need to find a list of all 4"+  snowstorms between 1981 and 1993 lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Spotted that on edit, check it out, you were correct. Also found one other in late Feb 1991 and added some near misses to the list. 

late Feb 1991 was that the surprise 30 hour event that also dropped over 8"?

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks that was amazing-- one of our rare daytime heavy snowstorms!  And a very rare positive bust in the 80s!

Didn't that storm keep going all day and end early in the evening? That's what I remember.  I used to call 976-1212 for my local weather conditions and updated forecasts back then, the local conditions updated every hour.  I called the 516, 212 and 914 area codes for that number to get the conditions at Islip, Central Park and White Plains lol.  I would average out Central Park and Islip to try to figure out the numbers for Nassau County-- it's all I had back then.

 

Do you have any idea what the 7" snowstorm at LGA could have been?  Maybe it was the same snowstorm-- but I thought that one started in the late afternoon or early evening and went on all night and ended the following morning?

 

I just need to find a list of all 4"+  snowstorms between 1981 and 1993 lol.

 

Dec 90 is probably what you're thinking of. Was an overnight storm that ended as drizzle 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I have a full data table for NYC available over in the climate change forum for anyone who wants to download it, but for 1980s snowfalls greater than 3" over consecutive two day intervals here's what I see (I added 1990-91): 

1979-80 _ 3.5" Dec 19, 4.6" Mar 13-14 (3.6, 1.0), 

1980-81 _ 4.9" Jan 6-7 (0.8, 4.1), 8.6" Mar 5

1981-82 _ 9.3" Jan 13-14 (5.8, 3.5), 9.6" Apr 6

1982-83 _ 3.0" Dec 12, 3.9" Feb 6-7 (2.5, 1.4), 17.6" Feb 11-12 (12.5, 5.1), 

1983-84 _ 5.1" Jan 10-11 (3.4, 1.7), 4.6" Jan 18-19 (4.2, 0.4), 6.9" Mar 8-9 (1.8, 5.1), 3.3" Mar 28-29 (1.5, 1.8)

1984-85 _ 4.8" Dec 27, 4.1" Jan 17, 4.3" Feb 2, 5.7" Feb 5-6 (3.3, 2.4)

1985-86 _ 4.5" Feb 7-8 (4.3, 0.2), 4.5" Feb 11

1986-87 _ 8.1" Jan 22, 3.5" Jan 26, 4.2" Feb 23, 

1987-88 _ 5.8" Jan 3-4 (1.8, 4.0), 5.2" Jan 8

1988-89 _ 5.0" Jan 6, 

1989-90 _ 4.7" Nov 22-23 (0.3, 4.4),  3.1" Mar 6

1990-91 _ 7.2" Dec 27-28 (0.6, 6.6), 5.7" Jan 11, 8.9" Feb 26-27

If you recall an early snowfall it may be 1.1" on Nov 11, 1987. 

A very late snowfall was 0.8" on Apr 19, 1983 (a trace fell on Apr 23rd 1986).

Some snowfalls that did not qualify but were perhaps greater away from NYC, 1.6" both Dec 23-24 1980 and Dec 22-24 1989, then 2.6" Dec 29, 1987, 2.0" Jan 5, 1980, 1.9" Jan 23, 1982, 2.4" Jan 21, 1991, 2.7" Jan 25-26 1988 (2.1, 0.6), 2.4" Feb 12, 1987, 1.8" Feb 25, 1990, 2.5" Mar 6, 1989.

Thanks!  I'm glad you included the early 90s too, because I was looking for 1981-1993 there were a bunch of weird small to moderate snowfalls in there that really stick out to me.

Vets day 1987 is definitely memorable for me, I remember that 1.1" well, it stuck to everything, including the roads, that was a very cold even if minor snowfall.

And the latest seasonal on record for JFK was April 19, 1983, the year after the big blizzard, when they recorded 1.5" before it changed to rain, 2-4" across Long Island

I did not even remember the Christmas Eve snowfall in 1989 but that makes sense because of how cold it was and of course Christmas 1980 was the coldest one on record.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The measurable snow drought is likely to continue for some time in Baltimore, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. The 12z GFS offers a grim nightmare of the drought’s continuation through its forecast horizon. However, skill scores drop significantly after 7 days.

We just might beat that 332 day measurable snowfall record

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Dec 90 is probably what you're thinking of. Was an overnight storm that ended as drizzle 

Thanks I knew one of them was overnight lol.

And I think Feb 1991 was the 30 hour 8"+ snowstorm which was a huge surprise?

 

[Roger Smith]

The value of 8.6" matches Mar 5, 1981. Not qualified to say which events were surprises, as I never lived in the region (visited relatives in NJ a few times). I do recall quite a few of those storms as I was watching the weather from home base in southern Ontario and the wNY TV stations would always mention snowfalls downstate. The one in late Dec 1984 I recall because I noticed how odd that was to have snow followed immediately by a very warm spell setting records. 

I will add 1991-92 to that list since you're interested, should be there fairly soon (I am not in the right part of the building to find the data on another device). 

The 1980s were also a bit of a dead zone for heavy snowfalls in Ontario, in fact maybe worse, we missed most of the ones listed and didn't get as much compensatory cutter snow because the cutters cut hard most of the time. We did however get a monster 22" snowfall from Dec 8-10 1992, that one just kept going for about 36 hours. We got all that severe cold in 1980-81 without more than a couple of inches of snow each time, similar to NYC. Totally missed Feb83. Had a big snowstorm on Feb 28, 1984 that apparently you took as a warm sector. 

Missed most of the 1987 to 1989 snowfalls listed, such as they were. Those were very dry winters with just bits of frozen snow from small events. I wouldn't say either that Toronto ever returned to old-fashioned snowfall amounts the way NYC did in the 21st century, the decline that began around the 1950s just kept digging in progressively, the old 19th century average of 70" has been reduced to maybe 40" nowadays. Toronto is not in a snow drought this winter however, they had several 2-4" falls in the past six weeks, each of which melted off quickly.

From a log of historic NYC temperatures that I compared to Toronto, I found that in January, all of the top ten for Toronto matched up with some members of the top twenty at NYC, the order is a bit random but within the NYC top twenty I think only Jan 1870 falls below the top quartile for Toronto and is still above the median despite there being a very feeble urban heat island for Toronto in 1870 (that became the snowiest winter for Toronto, March was especially heavy). 

[Jersey Andrew]

30 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The value of 8.6" matches Mar 5, 1981. Not qualified to say which events were surprises, as I never lived in the region (visited relatives in NJ a few times). I do recall quite a few of those storms as I was watching the weather from home base in southern Ontario and the wNY TV stations would always mention snowfalls downstate. The one in late Dec 1984 I recall because I noticed how odd that was to have snow followed immediately by a very warm spell setting records. 

I will add 1991-92 to that list since you're interested, should be there fairly soon (I am not in the right part of the building to find the data on another device). 

The 1980s were also a bit of a dead zone for heavy snowfalls in Ontario, in fact maybe worse, we missed most of the ones listed and didn't get as much compensatory cutter snow because the cutters cut hard most of the time. We did however get a monster 22" snowfall from Dec 8-10 1992, that one just kept going for about 36 hours. We got all that severe cold in 1980-81 without more than a couple of inches of snow each time, similar to NYC. Totally missed Feb83. Had a big snowstorm on Feb 28, 1984 that apparently you took as a warm sector. 

Missed most of the 1987 to 1989 snowfalls listed, such as they were. Those were very dry winters with just bits of frozen snow from small events. I wouldn't say either that Toronto ever returned to old-fashioned snowfall amounts the way NYC did in the 21st century, the decline that began around the 1950s just kept digging in progressively, the old 19th century average of 70" has been reduced to maybe 40" nowadays. Toronto is not in a snow drought this winter however, they had several 2-4" falls in the past six weeks, each of which melted off quickly.

From a log of historic NYC temperatures that I compared to Toronto, I found that in January, all of the top ten for Toronto matched up with some members of the top twenty at NYC, the order is a bit random but within the NYC top twenty I think only Jan 1870 falls below the top quartile for Toronto and is still above the median despite there being a very feeble urban heat island for Toronto in 1870 (that became the snowiest winter for Toronto, March was especially heavy). 

Toronto reminds me a lot of Chicago from a cold and snow perspective. Spent four years up at Northwestern on the Chicago lakeshore 1996-2000. Only one massive snowstorm in January 1999. A fair amount of subzero lows and nasty windchills which corresponds to my annual February trips up to Toronto. In fact Chicago weather prepared me well.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

This system really isnt moving much,in fact it looks like its moving east/se. Also of note there is another upper level low vort northwest of the primary,which is actually throwing the cloud field and moisture back west towards us in the city. Its interesting to say the least to watch it go from clear to mostly cloudy here in the last couple of hours. Also of note show showers are breaking out in nassau county.

 

[wdrag]

Yep.: Even NYC parts of LI may see flurries, ice pellets or freezing drizzle this morning.  Big messy storm found a way to work its moisture back, even into the east side of the Hudson River in se NYS.  

My faith in the GFS is in general agreement with most others here... not strong when compared to the EC/GGEM.  

Modeling isn't handling the rotation of bands of moisture very well and as I recall did not do that well with big ocean storms when I worked in Boston. Timing-placement a mess for these bands.

I have no significant changes in my expectations for the 19th-20th and the two I84 corridor events of the 22nd-27th along with a general chilling the last 6 days of the month.  19th-20th favors mostly CT/MA/Catskills high terrain icing with a little minor backside snow on the 20th. 

[snowman19]

Yep.: Even NYC parts of LI may see flurries, ice pellets or freezing drizzle this morning.  Big messy storm found a way to work its moisture back, even into the east side of the Hudson River in se NYS.  
My faith in the GFS is in general agreement with most others here... not strong when compared to the EC/GGEM.  
Modeling isn't handling the rotation of bands of moisture very well and as I recall did not do that well with big ocean storms when I worked in Boston. Timing-placement a mess for these bands.
I have no significant changes in my expectations for the 19th-20th and the two I84 corridor events of the 22nd-27th along with a general chilling the last 6 days of the month.  19th-20th favors mostly CT/MA/Catskills high terrain icing with a little minor backside snow on the 20th. 

Agree Walt. The ensembles are showing a look the end of the month that would definitely favor I-84 north. It’s going to be very difficult to get anything substantial snow-wise for the I-95 corridor with this setup

[jconsor]

8 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

Looks kinda subtropical offshore

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=vis_swir

Yes, numerous factors support the system off the NE US being subtropical.  I explain in the thread below:
 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     41degs.(36/46) or +8.

Month to date is     44.3[+10.1].          Should be     43.2[+9.4] by the 27th.

Reached 42 here yesterday.

Today:     42-45, wind nw., cleaaring skies, 32 tomorrow AM.

SURPRISE!   But the OP is totally different late:

 

29*(50%RH) here at 6am.      30* at 7am.    Back to  29* at 9am.      32* at 10am.       35* at Noon.      37* at 1pm.     40* at 2pm.         44* at 3pm.       46* at 3:30pm.      Reached 47* at 4:30pm.      42* at 8pm.

[gravitylover]

I've had wind driven flurries for hours. Just a dusting where the wind piled it up but that's a few days in a row of snow on the ground in the morning. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will become partly to mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 48°

Philadelphia: 48°

Temperatures will average above normal during the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.7°

[donsutherland1]

Winter futility ranking through January 15th.

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We just might beat that 332 day measurable snowfall record

It will be challenging. There could be 1-2 opportunities for at least some measurable snowfall before January concludes. Ensemble support for January 22-24 has increased somewhat in recent cycles.

[snowman19]

It will be challenging. There could be 1-2 opportunities for at least some measurable snowfall before January concludes. Ensemble support for January 22-24 has increased somewhat in recent cycles.

Even where I am up in Sloatsburg there has yet to be a plowable snowfall. It’s crazy to say that on 1/16. The last time plows were needed up here was the minor event we had on Sat, March 12th, 2022. Over 10 months ago….insane

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Even where I am up in Sloatsburg there has yet to be a plowable snowfall. It’s crazy to say that on 1/16. The last time plows were needed up here was the minor event we had on Sat, March 12th, 2022. Over 10 months ago….insane

Even worse here-Late Jan 2022 with the system that crushed LI and coastal Jersey-we had 7 inches here.    We had snow Superbowl Sunday but roads were wet.  

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Even where I am up in Sloatsburg there has yet to be a plowable snowfall. It’s crazy to say that on 1/16. The last time plows were needed up here was the minor event we had on Sat, March 12th, 2022. Over 10 months ago….insane

It has been an awful winter even up to eastern Maine.

[gravitylover]

I pushed some snow around once just to make myself feel productive and to reduce the ice in the shady spots on the driveway the next morning. They still iced up and stayed slick for a few days. The plow came down the street twice that time and they've brined a few times, I guess they need to feel productive too.

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Even where I am up in Sloatsburg there has yet to be a plowable snowfall. It’s crazy to say that on 1/16. The last time plows were needed up here was the minor event we had on Sat, March 12th, 2022. Over 10 months ago….insane

We've had 2 "plowable" "events" up here (Syracuse area) and they were like 3 to 4 inches. Other than that, it's been an inch here or there to get to our abysmal total in the lower 20s in inches. Truly awful winter in a string of awful winters.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will be challenging. There could be 1-2 opportunities for at least some measurable snowfall before January concludes. Ensemble support for January 22-24 has increased somewhat in recent cycles.

It is definitely looking like an overrunning, boundary setup coming up. As always with these, will depend on which side we are on. 

Will be a sharp cutoff, and may be right through our region (of course latitude will help a ton).

Here is the GFS just for example purposes.

[snowman19]

It is definitely looking like an overrunning, boundary setup coming up. As always with these, will depend on which side we are on. 
Will be a sharp cutoff, and may be right through our region (of course latitude will help a ton).
Here is the GFS just for example purposes.

Since the NAO is going to be positive we are going to need a strong 50/50 low to create confluence and make it work for our area. If there’s not one, then it’s probably congrats New England. And until proven otherwise, the SE ridge is going to trend stronger as we get closer

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Since the NAO is going to be positive we are going to need a strong 50/50 low to create confluence and make it work for our area. If there’s not one, then it’s probably congrats New England. And until proven otherwise, the SE ridge is going to trend stronger as we get closer

Maybe, however I am looking at it as getting CPK a half an inch of snow. This is the best chance since December and probably not again until March. I think a half inch at CPK is definitely doable.

The good thing about these setups are the multiple waves, which increases the chance for confluence. Just need one to strengthen as it moves east with a WEAK follow up wave.

Not looking for 93/94, just half an inch for CPK.

[EastonSN+]

The last part of winter will likely come down to whether or not blocking returns given the strong blocking in December. Still nothing on the horizon.

[snywx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Even where I am up in Sloatsburg there has yet to be a plowable snowfall. It’s crazy to say that on 1/16. The last time plows were needed up here was the minor event we had on Sat, March 12th, 2022. Over 10 months ago….insane

We’ve had 2 plowable events this season here in western Orange County. Since the mid dec event here it’s been virtually snowless outside of a coating here and there

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Maybe, however I am looking at it as getting CPK a half an inch of snow. This is the best chance since December and probably not again until March. I think a half inch at CPK is definitely doable.

The good thing about these setups are the multiple waves, which increases the chance for confluence. Just need one to strengthen as it moves east with a WEAK follow up wave.

Not looking for 93/94, just half an inch for CPK.

I dont know if I'd write off all of February yet even though with the way this winter has gone I expect it to suck 

[gpsnavigator]

Is that sub-tropical storm acting to draw the moisture out of our immediate area?  RH/DP has dropped several points in the past two hours and it is a deep blue sky with plenty of sunshine.  I'm seeing dewpoints in the single digits in west jersey with air temps in the mid and upper 30s.  Some wispy white clouds are visible on the horizon to the north and east.