January 2023

[donsutherland1]

40 minutes ago, NYC10023 said:

#1 spot gave us the highest snowfall storm on record (in NYC) 9 days later… so there’s that

It would be great to have an outlier storm like that at some point. For winters that had no measurable snowfall through December 31st, here's how things progressed during January. 2015-16 stands almost alone, though three other winters wound up with 10" or more snow in January: 1885-86, 1891-92, and 1965-66. 1999-00 (9.5") just missed.

[EastonSN+]

For Eastern LI folks. Courtesy of NE forum.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

It would be great to have an outlier storm like that at some point. For winters that had no measurable snowfall through December 31st, here's how things progressed during January. 2015-16 stands almost alone, though three other winters wound up with 10" or more snow in January: 1885-86, 1891-92, and 1965-66. 1999-00 (9.5") just missed.

It looks like we have a small window over next 10 days or so to get CPK some snow. Looks dicey after that. 

March is always a threat so it may end up like 97/98.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

1989-90 has been reincarnated lol

Now we need to see if we can get a reincarnation of 1989-90 followed by a reincarnation of 2001-02 for next winter lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It looks like we have a small window over next 10 days or so to get CPK some snow. Looks dicey after that. 

March is always a threat so it may end up like 97/98.

So basically Jan 20-31?

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

For Eastern LI folks. Courtesy of NE forum.

what keeps it from getting farther west?

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It would be great to have an outlier storm like that at some point. For winters that had no measurable snowfall through December 31st, here's how things progressed during January. 2015-16 stands almost alone, though three other winters wound up with 10" or more snow in January: 1885-86, 1891-92, and 1965-66. 1999-00 (9.5") just missed.

Have to throw out some of those winters-- 2015-16 was a very strong el nino, 1965-66 was also an el nino, I'm tossing the 1800s winters either way lol....so all we're left with is 1999-00 and a la nina (but second year not third year), but the only season really comparable to this one.  That year had a surprise snowstorm in late January for the mid atlantic that changed to rain here.  And that is the timeframe to watch this season too.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s already not as bad as 01-02 because it actually got cold the last week of December, even though it only lasted 4 days. That winter never got cold. As far as not getting snow, yea it’s comparable to 01-02 so far, but that winter was dry, this one wants to rain and produce thunderstorms in the middle of January

So a completely different pattern out west too (which is where these rainers are coming from.)

Actually sounds more like 1989-90 and 1997-98 lol.

more like a strong el nino in the beginning and a la nina to close it out.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

He comes off as pompous but he’s right here. February looks very, very ugly. And if a “good” look does show up again, it’s not going to immediately get cold. That pattern is going to flood everything with PAC air and the cold would have to build back up, it would probably be early March at that point, and we begin fighting climo, length of day and sun angle. I think the pattern probably gets “good” by early March, but how fast can it get cold again after the PAC onslaught will be the issue. Maybe we squeeze something out snow wise then to avoid a total shutout….

So basically it's from Jan 23 to the end of the month we have a chance and then after February ends?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I laugh sometimes at all the humor...it's pretty good. I like this one above since I'm a bit of an old guy, music wise.  The Righteous Brothers circa 1964. 

I always say, don't look too far ahead.  We have the next two weeks for a 'bit' of hope LI, including late tonight e tip LI. Nasty wind driven sleet and snow storm in progress now far se MA and CC. 

Added the seasonal snowfall (half the winter so far) for our part of the world.  You can check the NOHRSC broader view in the pic within pic upper right (inset).  Here's a tiny challenge?  Can we double what's occurred, the rest of the 22-23 cool season???

By the way,  Major cities season to date snowfall through yesterday.  BOS 1.4;   NYC, PHL, DCA, AVL Trace and oh,  wouldn't you know it...my wife always says we should move south for snow. Atlanta 0.1".  Can you beat that?

We always seem to get one of these renegade retrograding offshore snow storms to tease us in bad winters lol-- what is keeping it from going farther west?

 

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So basically Jan 20-31?

 

Yeah, just looking at the teleconections and MJO lag gives us a small window of Neg. AO, Pos. PNA and MJO in favorable phases (with lag).

After that, if the teleconections are to be believed, looking at RNA, Positive AO and warm MJO phases.

Nobody knows how long that will last, but this year is a la Nina and so far la Nina results snowfall wise. Febs are usually warm.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 2022-2023 to date vs. other bad winters (warmth and lack of snowfall):

woah 1999-2000 is also a match for temps? I did not know this when I posted my comparison to that season.

I know late Jan 2000 had a mid atlantic snowstorm, but I seem to remember there was also something in March? Is that correct, Don?  Or maybe that was 1999 lol?

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

woah 1999-2000 is also a match for temps? I did not know this when I posted my comparison to that season.

I know late Jan 2000 had a mid atlantic snowstorm, but I seem to remember there was also something in March? Is that correct, Don?  Or maybe that was 1999 lol?

 

 

1999 had the March snowstorm.

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what keeps it from getting farther west?

 

Just looking at all the modeling. Nothing shows it coming much further west.

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Snowing on the Cape, numerous webcams for anyone interested:

https://masswebcams.com/cape-cod-webcams/

It's raining on the outer cape and snowing on the inside and northern part of the cape....very narrow area of snow lol.

I think coastal Maine is also going to get rain while central Maine gets snow.

Very weird for an offshore storm, but that's how narrow and marginal the cold is now.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

1999 had the March snowstorm.

I may be way off on this, but I always thought the general rule of thumb is la Ninas are December and March for favorable snowfall outcomes, while El Ninos are Jan and Feb.

Therefore, since Jan and Feb are peak for snowfall, El Ninos will out-snow la Ninas (that and an active southern jet brings more moisture with an El Nino).

This winter, we have seen the northern jet and northern low pressures dominate, including December.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I may be way off on this, but I always thought the general rule of thumb is la Ninas are December and March for favorable snowfall outcomes, while El Ninos are Jan and Feb.

Therefore, since Jan and Feb are peak for snowfall, El Ninos will out-snow la Ninas (that and an active southern jet brings more moisture with an El Nino).

This winter, we have seen the northern jet and northern low pressures dominate, including December.

Neutrals (especially after la ninas) are the worst though. And la ninas after el ninos are the best.

 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I may be way off on this, but I always thought the general rule of thumb is la Ninas are December and March for favorable snowfall outcomes, while El Ninos are Jan and Feb.

Therefore, since Jan and Feb are peak for snowfall, El Ninos will out-snow la Ninas (that and an active southern jet brings more moisture with an El Nino).

This winter, we have seen the northern jet and northern low pressures dominate, including December.

In the 80s almost all our snows of 4"+ came in Jan and Feb. There were a few March events like in 84 and 87 but very few December events. Dec 84 had something around Christmas followed by a major warmup

[wdrag]

42 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

In the 80s almost all our snows of 4"+ came in Jan and Feb. There were a few March events like in 84 and 87 but very few December events. Dec 84 had something around Christmas followed by a major warmup

April 82?

[Stormlover74]

Just now, wdrag said:

April 82?

Oh yeah that one 

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

In the 80s almost all our snows of 4"+ came in Jan and Feb. There were a few March events like in 84 and 87 but very few December events. Dec 84 had something around Christmas followed by a major warmup

Was Dec 1984 the famous 8.6" snowstorm that was supposed to change to rain but only changed to drizzle at the end?  I remember that well.

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was Dec 1984 the famous 8.6" snowstorm that was supposed to change to rain but only changed to drizzle at the end?  I remember that well.

 

I don't believe so but don't really remember.  I just remember playing outside when it was 70 degrees with piles of snow in the background before the arctic blast of Jan 85

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I don't believe so but don't really remember.  I just remember playing outside when it was 70 degrees with piles of snow in the background before the arctic blast of Jan 85

That arctic blast was amazing, the first true arctic blast in our new house which we moved into in May 1984 (after another very cold winter with a couple of back to back moderate 4-5 inch snowfalls...I think those were in February.)

I just distinctly remember an 8.6" snowfall occuring sometime during the first winter in our house that only changed to drizzle at the very end.  I wonder where we can find the top snowfalls from the 1980s, that 8.6" snowfall has to be in there somewhere.  There was also a 7" incher where I got locked out of my house because the door was frozen shut-- I think that was in January....the 8.6" measurement was at Central Park and the 7" measurement was for a different storm at LGA.

Also consider that even though 1983-84 and 1984-85 had periods of historic cold from time to time....they also had winter 70 to even 75 degree temps at other times lol.

[snowman19]

Yeah, just looking at the teleconections and MJO lag gives us a small window of Neg. AO, Pos. PNA and MJO in favorable phases (with lag).
After that, if the teleconections are to be believed, looking at RNA, Positive AO and warm MJO phases.
Nobody knows how long that will last, but this year is a la Nina and so far la Nina results snowfall wise. Febs are usually warm.
 

This guy is actually really good, not biased and explains things very well. This is a good tweet chain explaining what is happening with the pattern

[snowman19]

This guy is actually really good, not biased and explains things every well. This is a good tweet chain explaining what is happening with the pattern

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

what keeps it from getting farther west?

 

Bad karma emanating from weather forums.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Unfortunately this ends up as a phase-up and NOT where the Euro had it last night but right off the central NJ coast--coast hugger. A cold rain, probably 34 and rain. Last night's run colder and snowier with no phase and the southern system ending up further s and e.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

So it's right on the NJ shoreline as compared with last night's. 

WX/PT

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

So it's right on the NJ shoreline. 

WX/PT

Looks like something to track finally. While I do not expect this to turn into a good winter, as December showed, we could still have periods where we can cash in if things go right.

[JTA66]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1989-90 has been reincarnated lol

Now we need to see if we can get a reincarnation of 1989-90 followed by a reincarnation of 2001-02 for next winter lol.

 

At least 1989-90 was bone-rattling cold from Thanksgiving to New Years. And we did have the Thanksgiving Eve snowstorm that year.

Despite it being a super nino, this year reminds me of 1997-98 so far. All we had that year was  2-3 day arctic outbreak around New Years and that was it (at least here imby). So far all we’ve had this year was a 3-4 day arctic shot at Christmas.