snowman19 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 It would be interesting if we could challenge records from 1972-73 and 2001-02 for snowfall and warmth. I'm kind of disappointed we had that meaningless dry cold in December now. It probably means we can't beat any mild winter records but snowfall records are definitely in play on the low end lol. Are you confident about an el nino for next winter? Wouldn't it be more interesting if we somehow pulled off another la nina-- a 4 year la nina is unprecedented in modern times. Or we could have a neutral which would be another bad winter most likely? 01-02 was a neutral after a three year la nina and we saw how that turned out lol. I wonder if it's ever happened that we went right from a three year la nina into an el nino or if going to neutral first is more common? It’s already not as bad as 01-02 because it actually got cold the last week of December, even though it only lasted 4 days. That winter never got cold. As far as not getting snow, yea it’s comparable to 01-02 so far, but that winter was dry, this one wants to rain and produce thunderstorms in the middle of January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 Some notes here: It looks to me like the big weekend of storm oft predicted by long rangers more than a week in advance (via upper air pattern) is going to happen for parts of coastal New England. Moral victory. My guess is a few power outages are ahead for the wind whipped wet snow laden branches-wires in southeast Massachusetts and I haven't studied what might happen in Maine. This is a big storm, just a little far offshore. I can see eastern LI getting involved in some snow-sleet-freezing rain late today or Monday morning. GEFS is finally at 24 hours coming on board. FGEN will drive some of the snow-sleet west from the MA coast later today-tonight. Bottom line, an event for the Boston area to the Cape Cod Canal. Thursday-Friday Jan 19-20 I84 corridor-Old Forge NY: Continues to look like a significant light to moderate winter storm for me. For now a messy mix of ice and snow. Many models suggest mainly ice. Ice amounts on untreated surfaces in the hilly terrain of CT and Massachusetts as well as Old Forge NY may be 1 to 2 tenths of an inch. Potential for a period of slippery travel, especially Old Forge NY and high terrain of the I-84 corridor. A manageable travel event, if you plan on a little extra time. Leading the pack for many days (IF THIS OCCURS as wintry mix for more than 6 hours) is the Canadian and all it's modeling. No guarantee this occurs as 1/4-2" of snow and 1-2 tenths of an inch of ice for I84 northward but other modeling at least favors I84 itself northward. For those south of I84, you see it as nada and I can live with that southeast of Newton NJ in Sussex County NJ. As far as more seasonably cold wintry temps: I am expecting that chillier air (colder than what we're experiencing now) will arrive here after the storm of the 23rd-24th and generally linger til about the end of the month before the first week or two of February reverts back to above or much above normal temps. I'll check back tomorrow. Have a decent Sunday and go big blue. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 He comes off as pompous but he’s right here. February looks very, very ugly. And if a “good” look does show up again, it’s not going to immediately get cold. That pattern is going to flood everything with PAC air and the cold would have to build back up, it would probably be early March at that point, and we begin fighting climo, length of day and sun angle. I think the pattern probably gets “good” by early March, but how fast can it get cold again after the PAC onslaught will be the issue. Maybe we squeeze something out snow wise then to avoid a total shutout…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 He comes off as pompous but he’s right here. February looks very, very ugly. And if a “good” look does show up again, it’s not going to immediately get cold. That pattern is going to flood everything with PAC air and the cold would have to build back up, it would probably be early March at that point, and we begin fighting climo, length of day and sun angle. I think the pattern probably gets “good” by early March, but how fast can it get cold again after the PAC onslaught will be the issue. Maybe we squeeze something out snow wise then to avoid a total shutout…. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, North and West said: . This is Snowman19s dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 This is Snowman19s dream While I do appreciate the Mike Tyson’s Punchout between your relentless optimism and his unending nattering nabob of negativism, this year is just very much like 1991 or 1998 or 2002, and it just doesn’t want to produce, for whatever reason. Maybe Stella will get her groove back next season.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 This is Snowman19s dream And by the way, I would like to be wrong, but this season has lost that loving feeling.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 minute ago, North and West said: And by the way, I would like to be wrong, but this season has lost that loving feeling. . Definitely We will most likely get 1 big storm to ruin the futility and get near average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(36/450 or +7. Month to date is 44.9[+10.7]. Should be 43.1[+9.3] by the 23rd. Reached 36 here yesterday at 3pm. Today: 38-41, wind n-breezy, mixed skies, 28 tomorrow AM. 31*(66%RH) here at 6am. 36* at Noon. 41* at 3pm. Reached 42* at 4pm. 37* at 9pm. 35* at 11pm. Is this the first week of February? Or is it this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, North and West said: And by the way, I would like to be wrong, but this season has lost that loving feeling. . I laugh sometimes at all the humor...it's pretty good. I like this one above since I'm a bit of an old guy, music wise. The Righteous Brothers circa 1964. I always say, don't look too far ahead. We have the next two weeks for a 'bit' of hope LI, including late tonight e tip LI. Nasty wind driven sleet and snow storm in progress now far se MA and CC. Added the seasonal snowfall (half the winter so far) for our part of the world. You can check the NOHRSC broader view in the pic within pic upper right (inset). Here's a tiny challenge? Can we double what's occurred, the rest of the 22-23 cool season??? By the way, Major cities season to date snowfall through yesterday. BOS 1.4; NYC, PHL, DCA, AVL Trace and oh, wouldn't you know it...my wife always says we should move south for snow. Atlanta 0.1". Can you beat that? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(36/450 or +7. Month to date is 44.9[+10.7]. Should be 43.1[+9.3] by the 23rd. Reached 36 here yesterday at 3pm. Today: 38-41, wind n-breezy, mixed skies, 28 tomorrow AM. Is this the first week of February? Or is it this? May I recommend dumping CFS looks... When this first came out in the 20teens, I thought it good. No longer do I think this is worthwhile product. Anyone disagrees please let me know. Thanks, Walt 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Morning thoughts… It will become partly to mostly sunny and seasonably cold. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 40° Newark: 44° Philadelphia: 44° Temperatures will average above normal during the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.2°; 15-Year: 39.9° Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.0°; 15-Year: 41.7° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It would be interesting if we could challenge records from 1972-73 and 2001-02 for snowfall and warmth. I'm kind of disappointed we had that meaningless dry cold in December now. It probably means we can't beat any mild winter records but snowfall records are definitely in play on the low end lol. Are you confident about an el nino for next winter? Wouldn't it be more interesting if we somehow pulled off another la nina-- a 4 year la nina is unprecedented in modern times. Or we could have a neutral which would be another bad winter most likely? 01-02 was a neutral after a three year la nina and we saw how that turned out lol. I wonder if it's ever happened that we went right from a three year la nina into an el nino or if going to neutral first is more common? I am wary of believing in the patterns of recent years we can do it...the PWATS and just the tendency for juicy systems means somewhere we will luck into a 3-4-5 inch event at minimum if not a 2015-16 storm. I 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Winter 2022-2023 to date vs. other bad winters (warmth and lack of snowfall): 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Winter 2022-2023 to date vs. other bad winters (warmth and lack of snowfall): Half those winters were about to have at least a moderate to major snow event and/or a turn to cold. In a couple weeks I think this winter will be #1 or 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: And Larry's newsletter didn't exactly sound enthusiastic about a return to winter in the east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Light Snow in Montauk: https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/new-york/montauk-downtowncircle.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: He comes off as pompous but he’s right here. February looks very, very ugly. And if a “good” look does show up again, it’s not going to immediately get cold. That pattern is going to flood everything with PAC air and the cold would have to build back up, it would probably be early March at that point, and we begin fighting climo, length of day and sun angle. I think the pattern probably gets “good” by early March, but how fast can it get cold again after the PAC onslaught will be the issue. Maybe we squeeze something out snow wise then to avoid a total shutout…. Good thing long term verification is so poor. I'd go warm for early Feb. because of persistence and background alone. But it's really too early to know. People can throw around all the correlations and analogues they want... they are modest at best. A small, unexpected wrinkle can change everything. We won't be able to see much into Feb. for at least 5-7 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Yep, it looks cooked for February and probably for most if not the entire month. The worst part is all the cold will be scoured out of Canada during that time. Maybe something happens snow wise early March to avoid another 01-02 or 72-73 shutout, but you will first have to completely rebuild a cold supply, that takes time and you are quickly running out of time at that point with March climo against you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Winter 2022-2023 to date vs. other bad winters (warmth and lack of snowfall): #1 spot gave us the highest snowfall storm on record (in NYC) 9 days later… so there’s that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 Hi Don... if you have access to a simple and useful a stat to post... am interested in updated rankings GGEM/EC/GFS/UK in the cool season (possibly the period from Oct-Dec 2022 if we have it). I have no claim on GGEM tropical warm season verification. My interest, as I think most on here, is the cool season here in the eastern USA. Thanks in advance if you can dig it up. Walt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Snowing on the Cape, numerous webcams for anyone interested: https://masswebcams.com/cape-cod-webcams/ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, wdrag said: Hi Don... if you have access to a simple and useful a stat to post... am interested in updated rankings GGEM/EC/GFS/UK in the cool season (possibly the period from Oct-Dec 2022 if we have it). I have no claim on GGEM tropical warm season verification. My interest, as I think most on here, is the cool season here in the eastern USA. Thanks in advance if you can dig it up. Walt This is the only link I have with verification scores: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, lee59 said: Snowing on the Cape, numerous webcams for anyone interested: https://masswebcams.com/cape-cod-webcams/ Nice contribution-thanks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 13 minutes ago, wdrag said: Hi Don... if you have access to a simple and useful a stat to post... am interested in updated rankings GGEM/EC/GFS/UK in the cool season (possibly the period from Oct-Dec 2022 if we have it). I have no claim on GGEM tropical warm season verification. My interest, as I think most on here, is the cool season here in the eastern USA. Thanks in advance if you can dig it up. Walt I also found this link: https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html I've bookmarked it for future reference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 hours ago, wdrag said: I laugh sometimes at all the humor...it's pretty good. I like this one above since I'm a bit of an old guy, music wise. The Righteous Brothers circa 1964. I always say, don't look too far ahead. We have the next two weeks for a 'bit' of hope LI, including late tonight e tip LI. Nasty wind driven sleet and snow storm in progress now far se MA and CC. Added the seasonal snowfall (half the winter so far) for our part of the world. You can check the NOHRSC broader view in the pic within pic upper right (inset). Here's a tiny challenge? Can we double what's occurred, the rest of the 22-23 cool season??? By the way, Major cities season to date snowfall through yesterday. BOS 1.4; NYC, PHL, DCA, AVL Trace and oh, wouldn't you know it...my wife always says we should move south for snow. Atlanta 0.1". Can you beat that? That map looks spot on for up here.. 10.6” ytd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I also found this link: https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html I've bookmarked it for future reference. Thank you Don... GGEM-CMCE does not look very good in these two links... Maybe I have a perception bias? We'll know in a few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 I wonder if this dip is considered the return of blocking from December before we go positive? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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