January 2023

[lee59]

Flurries starting again in Times Square. Is there still hope for Central Park, probably not much.

[eduggs]

As soon as people stop obsessing about MJO, PNA, ENSO, EPO, WAR etc, they will become better forecasters. We simplify weather prediction into these loosely defined entities. And then we talk as if they are real things that have a causal impact on outcomes. It's almost like we anthropomorphize them.

The problem remains that models are no better at predicting future states of these indices than they are predicting 500mb height fields. So even if MJO, PNA, NAO are loosely correlated with regional weather outcomes, we cannot accurately predict these beyond 7-10 days. And these indices have no causal power. They don't force anything to happen. They are simply averaged numerical approximations of geophysical parameters that are all connected and interwoven into global ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns. They reflect the current state of the global ocean-atmosphere couplet as opposed to predicting its future state. 

[the_other_guy]

Winter 2022-2023

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

As soon as people stop obsessing about MJO, PNA, ENSO, EPO, WAR etc, they will become better forecasters. We simplify weather prediction into these loosely defined entities. And then we talk as if they are real things that have a causal impact on outcomes. It's almost like we anthropomorphize them.

The problem remains that models are no better at predicting future states of these indices than they are predicting 500mb height fields. So even if MJO, PNA, NAO are loosely correlated with regional weather outcomes, we cannot accurately predict these beyond 7-10 days. And these indices have no causal power. They don't force anything to happen. They are simply averaged numerical approximations of geophysical parameters that are all connected and interwoven into global ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns. They reflect the current state of the global ocean-atmosphere couplet as opposed to predicting its future state. 

I wish there was an AMEN button!

[EastonSN+]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The thing I don’t expect to change is the SE ridge/WAR. @Bluewave has shown that all the models consistently underestimate it and weaken it in the long range only to correct much stronger as we move closer in time. It happens over and over again. This is been going on for years now. I would expect this to be no different given those blazing SSTs off the east coast, there is a positive feedback loop

Yeah we may have to wait a few years for the water temps to back off.

SE ridge will remain but it's not unbeatable. Remember in December the SE ridge was beaten down by the historic "cutter" so much so that the follow up wave had no chance and slid off the SE Coast. If we cut a strong cutter (not as historic) the SE ridge can HELP us in pushing the follow up wave up the coast/provide more moisture.

Remember this SE ridge did nothing to stop the Delmarva and Virginia, south of us, from having a historic snowfall winter last year. If nothing else, it's just a standard la Nina look with cutters and SE sliders. We just need the Cutter to be the right strength to all for the slider to gain enough latitude.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah we may have to wait a few years for the water temps to back off.

SE ridge will remain but it's not unbeatable. Remember in December the SE ridge was beaten down by the historic "cutter" so much so that the follow up wave had no chance and slid off the SE Coast. If we cut a strong cutter (not as historic) the SE ridge can HELP us in pushing the follow up wave up the coast/provide more moisture.

Remember this SE ridge did nothing to stop the Delmarva and Virginia, south of us, from having a historic snowfall winter last year. If nothing else, it's just a standard la Nina look with cutters and SE sliders. We just need the Cutter to be the right strength to all for the slider to gain enough latitude.

Is our area more vulnerable to this ridging than other parts of the world at the same latitude?

 

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Storm offshore tomorrow keeps inching a little closer. Looks like eastern Long Island may get something. Southeastern New England looks to get accumulating snow.

I haven't noticed it moving closer on guidance over the past day. The NAM had 1 run that brought a some snow to most of LI, but since then everything focused on EMA.

This maybe could have been a coastal grazer for us with a different upper level evolution. That said, the HRRR suggests that maybe flurries and snow showers are possible for eastern areas for the next day or so.

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I wish there was an AMEN button!

AMEN

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is our area more vulnerable to this ridging than other parts of the world at the same latitude?

 

Seems to not hurt some areas to the south of us. Check this out from last year. It's more la Nina cutter or slider than SE ridge warming the entire east coast.

https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2021/02/27/delaware-has-new-daily-snow-depth-record-snowfall-greenwood-delaware-national-weather-service/6850318002/

[Sampson]

Jeb walk in my car with coffee. Watching the flurries and listening to some pre game NFL talk. Winter 2023!

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I haven't noticed it moving closer on guidance over the past day. The NAM had 1 run that brought a some snow to most of LI, but since then everything focused on EMA.

This maybe could have been a coastal grazer for us with a different upper level evolution. That said, the HRRR suggests that maybe flurries and snow showers are possible for eastern areas for the next day or so.

the snow flurring/light snow has started up again

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Seems to not hurt some areas to the south of us. Check this out from last year. It's more la Nina cutter or slider than SE ridge warming the entire east coast.

https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2021/02/27/delaware-has-new-daily-snow-depth-record-snowfall-greenwood-delaware-national-weather-service/6850318002/

I remember two storms, both la nina storms (I think?)..... January 2000, produced heavy snow in the DC area and rain here, and back on Vets Day 1987, heavy snow DC to Philly, only an inch or two here, and then heavy snow again up by Boston.

 

[EastonSN+]

Now if we want to talk about not looking at modeling and turning to our environment...

One MET in the NE forum went against the models and said that since certain birds were still around it would be a warm winter. Amazingly he turned out right.

My dad who is 82 and has seen many winters told me in December that he was not changing the oil in his snow thrower as he had a feeling it was going to be a dud winter. Has seen this before. This was back in early December.

I am not a nature person, but makes you wonder.....

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I see flurries in NYC this morning.  RGEM the only model to hint this. 

 

if you look back on modeling for this morning... which model had a bit of snow for CT/MA/LI this morning????? The RGEM and I think it was the RGEM only.  You're invited to check back and call me on it. Certainly not the over hyped EC nor the maligned GFS.

This at least is a moral victory for all who predicted a big winter event here for the 14th.  Flurries are hope. Slight accums nowcast expectation today for parts of CT/LI.

I didn't see any models with measurable today - could have missed it though. Although I did notice the HRRR indicating flurries tonight. Glancing at soundings, the snow looks to be forming at a low level. Maybe models were assuming no crystallization at those temperatures. It could be the salt nuclei facilitating snow growth and crystallization. Hopefully flurries/snow showers continue all day into tomorrow.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember two storms, both la nina storms (I think?)..... January 2000, produced heavy snow in the DC area and rain here, and back on Vets Day 1987, heavy snow DC to Philly, only an inch or two here, and then heavy snow again up by Boston.

 

Yup in 2000 Raleigh NC had their largest snowfall in history while we changed to rain. Was more of a  sidewinder than a SE slider though.

My point is just there is a fear of the SE ridge. Now, if areas to the south of us stopped snowing and breaking records I would agree we are in trouble, but as long as we still have se sliders we can still snow. 

[Sampson]

Gotta admit: I’m enjoying this very much.  The weenie in me is still strong. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup in 2000 Raleigh NC had their largest snowfall in history while we changed to rain. Was more of a  sidewinder than a SE slider though.

My point is just there is a fear of the SE ridge. Now, if areas to the south of us stopped snowing and breaking records I would agree we are in trouble, but as long as we still have se sliders we can still snow. 

we don't get many sidewinders anymore do we?

 

also what's a stemwinder? same thing?

 

omg its snowing now and the sun is out at the same time

 

big flakes looks like bird feathers slowly falling from the skies and the birds seem to love it too lol

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sampson said:

Gotta admit: I’m enjoying this very much.  The weenie in me is still strong. 

Yeah it's very photogenic lol

like confetti

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I didn't see any models with measurable today - could have missed it though. Although I did notice the HRRR indicating flurries tonight. Glancing at soundings, the snow looks to be forming at a low level. Maybe models were assuming no crystallization at those temperatures. It could be the salt nuclei facilitating snow growth and crystallization. Hopefully flurries/snow showers continue all day into tomorrow.

salt nuclei?! you mean all that salt they were dumping when it wasn't snowing caused this snow?

Good-- they should dump more of it lol

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Now if we want to talk about not looking at modeling and turning to our environment...

One MET in the NE forum went against the models and said that since certain birds were still around it would be a warm winter. Amazingly he turned out right.

My dad who is 82 and has seen many winters told me in December that he was not changing the oil in his snow thrower as he had a feeling it was going to be a dud winter. Has seen this before. This was back in early December.

I am not a nature person, but makes you wonder.....

well many animals are highly intelligent and they also have a sixth sense that is linked to magnetic fields and some other cool stuff

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

we don't get many sidewinders anymore do we?

 

also what's a stemwinder? same thing?

 

omg its snowing now and the sun is out at the same time

 

big flakes looks like bird feathers slowly falling from the skies and the birds seem to love it too lol

 

 

 

 

 

 

My bad stemwinder. Nice catch.

Yeah do not remember the last one other than 2000. You would think there would be more with ridging in the Atlantic.

[MJO812]

[snowman19]

Now if we want to talk about not looking at modeling and turning to our environment...
One MET in the NE forum went against the models and said that since certain birds were still around it would be a warm winter. Amazingly he turned out right.
My dad who is 82 and has seen many winters told me in December that he was not changing the oil in his snow thrower as he had a feeling it was going to be a dud winter. Has seen this before. This was back in early December.
I am not a nature person, but makes you wonder.....

That met actually did an amazing job to date. He said this was going to be a total dud winter back in mid-November and he was ignored. No one believed it. He stuck to his guns the entire time and here we are. When everyone was hyping the west-based -NAO and -AO in December he predicted we would end up well below average for snow and the cold would not last. A real impressive job to this point IMO. He thinks the end of this month and February go canonical Niña and the warmth and snow drought continue. Guess we shall see

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That met actually did an amazing job to date. He said this was going to be a total dud winter back in mid-November and he was ignored. No one believed it. He stuck to his guns the entire time and here we are. When everyone was hyping the west-based -NAO and -AO in December he predicted we would end up well below average for snow and the cold would not last. A real impressive job to this point IMO. He thinks the end of this month and February go canonical Niña and the warmth and snow drought continue. Guess we shall see

I agree that we would likely head to a typical Feb la Nina look. But of course that does not mean a shut out, just less than average February snowfall.

[lee59]

light snow here again

[vegan_edible]

Snow showers in White Plains, brought me some much needed joy. Akin to craving a burger then driving by a fast food restaurant and getting a big wiff, but still its something!

[eduggs]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

salt nuclei?! you mean all that salt they were dumping when it wasn't snowing caused this snow?

Good-- they should dump more of it lol

 

I suppose it's possible  I'm in favor of anything that brings us snow.

Raindrops and snowflakes need nuclei - usually dust particles - to crystallize around and transfer vapor into the solid phase. I believe salt particularly near coastal regions, e.g., LI, coastal SNE, are very efficient at facilitating crystallization. My guess is this would promote flurries vs. drizzle but it's possible it could allow precipitation to form below the normal crystallization zone. 

[donsutherland1]

A short video from this morning.

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

30 breezy and cloudy. Feels like winter. 

[vegan_edible]

12z GFS shows promise for next monday, but we all know how this goes...