Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, matt8204 said: Yeah, even in '97-'98 (which was also horrible) there were a couple of threats in January that I remember...1/7, 1/22, etc. There was even a bit of snow in December of '97. I remember flakes flying the day of the Giants/Vikings playoff game where Big Blue lost a 9-point lead with two minutes left. that winter had alot of dustings/coatings here-we nickeled and dimed our way to 20 inches locally, this winter has none of that. Just warm and rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 I don't think we've had a single meaningful threat survive to the D7 mark (168 hours) this year. The Christmas bomb was clearly cutting by that point and today's threat was a goner after a few interesting runs last week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said: I don't think we've had a single meaningful threat survive to the D7 mark (168 hours) this year. The Christmas bomb was clearly cutting by that point and today's threat was a goner after a few interesting runs last week. It's like rooting for a football team that's already losing by 20 or 30 points at halftime every week. You're not losing heartbreakers but there's not really a compelling reason to stick around until the end either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: I don't think we've had a single meaningful threat survive to the D7 mark (168 hours) this year. The Christmas bomb was clearly cutting by that point and today's threat was a goner after a few interesting runs last week. Personally I'd prefer it like this, at least I'm not losing sleep staying up for the Euro for rain events. I don't know if the models are getting better or the pattern is just so horrible that they haven't even been able to tease much this winter. That's why I'm curious what happens with the storm Thu-Fri to see if the models still show something interesting inside 144 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Personally I'd prefer it like this, at least I'm not losing sleep staying up for the Euro for rain events. I don't know if the models are getting better or the pattern is just so horrible that they haven't even been able to tease much this winter. That's why I'm curious what happens with the storm Thu-Fri to see if the models still show something interesting inside 144 hours. There's definitely less heartbreak like this, but in a way it's almost more psychically damaging. At least in a near miss situation you can tell yourself that you just need one or two more things to work out the next time, in the pattern we've had there isn't even room for any wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Say canonical La Niña without saying canonical La Niña: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Lee Goldberg indicating it is starting to look like a pattern change the end of the month. Snow chances will probably increase. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 lets see what the 18z GFS has in store for those 2 systems. I have heard that the 6z and 18z aren't as accurate due to not accounting for certain upper level dynamics but that could be total BS. someone who knows more than me (literally anyone on this forum) please inform me. I feel like a lost puppy reading some of these scientific replies but I love it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: lets see what the 18z GFS has in store for those 2 systems. I have heard that the 6z and 18z aren't as accurate due to not accounting for certain upper level dynamics but that could be total BS. someone who knows more than me (literally anyone on this forum) please inform me. I feel like a lost puppy reading some of these scientific replies but I love it 18Z GFS warm with system 1 but honestly it looks nothing like either the Euro or the CMC. No cutter but a weak wave tracking across PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 20 minutes ago, lee59 said: Lee Goldberg indicating it is starting to look like a pattern change the end of the month. Snow chances will probably increase. Hopefully it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: lets see what the 18z GFS has in store for those 2 systems. I have heard that the 6z and 18z aren't as accurate due to not accounting for certain upper level dynamics but that could be total BS. someone who knows more than me (literally anyone on this forum) please inform me. I feel like a lost puppy reading some of these scientific replies but I love it I don't think that's really true anymore. What I will say is that the 18z and 06z GFS use the same data as the 12z and 00z runs, respectively, so they are a little less interesting for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 If you loop the 500mb heights on the any of the mid-range models, places like Atlanta are constantly at 570dm or above. Typically for us to get a good wintry event, regions in the southeast like Atlanta, Knoxville, and Charlotte need to get down into the 540-546 range. Otherwise the primary storm track will be north or west of us. The only time that region is modeled to get into that 500mb height range over the next 7 days is actually right now, which is why this weekend was the closest we will likely get to a snowstorm in a while, and why parts of SEMA and coastal ME might get some snow this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Lee Goldberg indicating it is starting to look like a pattern change the end of the month. Snow chances will probably increase. If this keeps being said, eventually it's bound to be true. But right now it's just wishing and hoping because nobody has a crystal ball. Also, right now we have a high amplitude, east coast trof with significant 850mb and 500mb temperature and height anomalies moving through the southeast and mid-Atlantic. How does that fit with our current "pattern?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 38 minutes ago, eduggs said: If this keeps being said, eventually it's bound to be true. But right now it's just wishing and hoping because nobody has a crystal ball. Also, right now we have a high amplitude, east coast trof with significant 850mb and 500mb temperature and height anomalies moving through the southeast and mid-Atlantic. How does that fit with our current "pattern?" Of course it will eventually happen. Those cancelling winter I think are giving up to soon. Goldberg even indicating a week from now the possibility of some wintry weather in the area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 A seasonably cool air mass is pushing into the region for the the weekend. An offshore storm could spread clouds into the region Sunday into Monday. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England, including Boston, could see a period of snow. Right now, the odds favor a light to perhaps moderate snowfall in that area. Farther west, the measurable snow drought will very likely continue in Philadelphia and New York City. Milder weather will then return and persist through much of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions. The SOI was -14.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.028 today. On January 11 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.529 (RMM). The January 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.747 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (6.9° above normal). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Trough keeps digging in the west on the gfs Can't make this crap up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Trough keeps digging in the west on the gfs Can't make this crap up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 11 hours ago, TWCCraig said: Still no freezes yet in NYC this January. This could make a run for top 3. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Missing Count 1 2023 0 19 2 1932 4 0 3 2006 10 0 - 1990 10 0 5 2020 11 0 - 2002 11 0 - 1933 11 0 8 2017 12 0 - 1950 12 1 10 2012 13 0 - 1998 13 0 12 1880 14 0 13 1937 15 0 - 1906 15 0 15 2021 16 0 We've had an identical problem in DC. DCA has touched 32 a couple times, but that's it. It just won't get below freezing. Even with the front coming through this morning, DCA is sitting at 40F at midnight in mid January. Something is very wrong. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Another day has passed and the misery inflicted by Winter 2022-2023 intensifies. New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have yet to see measurable snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 That 2015-2016 winter was one of the strangest. Overall a warm winter, but NYC had its biggest snowfall on record and its first below zero temp in 22 years (I remember running the evening before and not enjoying it one bit lol). Hopefully we can all salvage some semblance of a rescue in terms of snow like we saw that winter, but.... not looking great. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 THE EURO TORCHED THE SYSTEM TOO UNBELIEVEABLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 THE EURO TORCHED THE SYSTEM TOO UNBELIEVEABLE +NAO and the SE ridge/WAR flexing, that’s all you need to see. These storms are going to continue to cut and inland run. Nothing to stop it. The GEFS probably has the right idea with an RNA trough in the west, especially in the final days of this month and the beginning of February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 12:37 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Mm... the post was not to intended to aver any actionable course correction - just in case You have to specific/qualify a post or there's a tendency to interpret. I figure you know that... But, I was offering a suggestion (plausible) to offer some insight as to why-for some tendencies we are seeing in recent guidance evolution. It looks like models are consistently underestimating that western atlantic ridge as well as overestimating the amount of cold air we now get....figured both are connected to those steamy SST offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 12:42 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I am noticing propensity in the GFS toward a -EPO rendition of pattern modulation... That version does slow the penetration E across the continent with distribution of cyclone track and cold, during the 20 to 26 time frame. The EPS cluster is more +PNA ...getting there quicker, with less obvious positive g-hgt over the Alaska sector. There is room for either version to manifest. Just a word of advice as we tick days closer to a possible if not likely, winter recovering mode for mid latitude continent. Having said that... the EPS might offer hope for winter enthusiasts, sooner, with more commitment to EC. But the GFS version could also perform in overrunning "Minnesota squeeze" type mixy results. I suspect the operational GFS is too extreme, either way. How much or how little - This is likely a 10 day transitional period from a pseudo el nino pattern to more of a la nina pattern for February...this 10 day period is going to be the time to get something this winter...if we don't we will likely have less than 10" of snow this season....and even that is being generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 2:33 PM, bluewave said: Yeah, pretty reliable day 11-15 model bias for at least the last 90 days. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html the positive of a reliable bias is that it can be adjusted for in advance, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 16 hours ago, TWCCraig said: Still no freezes yet in NYC this January. This could make a run for top 3. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Missing Count 1 2023 0 19 2 1932 4 0 3 2006 10 0 - 1990 10 0 5 2020 11 0 - 2002 11 0 - 1933 11 0 8 2017 12 0 - 1950 12 1 10 2012 13 0 - 1998 13 0 12 1880 14 0 13 1937 15 0 - 1906 15 0 15 2021 16 0 1932 is so far ahead of everyone else, what exactly was going on that year? and two years later there was 1934-- crazy lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Light coating of snow here this morning…epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 16 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: Hard to get snow to rain when the temperature never goes below 32. also who the hell wants snow to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 ripping snowflakes outside! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 There’s a wet snow shower in parts of southern Westchester County. No accumulation has occurred. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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