January 2023

[mannynyc]

35 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i see a giraffe

We can’t snow until you see a Zebra

[lee59]

Wind  picking up here.

[Eduardo]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Dude are you also trolling ? Brooklyn has been posting maps of the ensembles all the time.

Maybe it's best not to even post on here sometimes and post in the SNE subforum. 

I fully feel your frustration.  I too am a snow weenie at heart.  But the LR guidance has consistently corrected towards warmer temps and a storm track through the Great Lakes since November.  So, while we all can see some better-looking snapshots on the 15-day and it’s tempting to read significance into them, it’s kind of irrational to believe them right now.  That learned skepticism is also what’ll shield us from disappointment later on (and provide a pleasant sense of surprise if things come into alignment for us for a period).

I think the best we can do right now is cross our fingers and hope for a lucky event or two before climo starts working against us.  After that, we need to look for some kind of catalyst to get us out of this seemingly-never ending Niña with its raging PAC jet/SE ridge pattern.  I’m really just too much of a novice to know what that that catalyst might be though. Another major ENSO event?  A volcanic event perhaps?

[LoboLeader1]

Pouring rain here, currently 52F.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

In order to get snow you have to have some cold air. And tonight's European model run has some at the end. Maybe this will be the start of something new.

WX/PT

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Showers and drizzle will end this morning. The remainder of the day will be mostly cloudy. It will be unseasonably mild, but cooler air will begin to move into the region late in the day. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 56°

Newark: 57°

Philadelphia: 55°

A seasonably cool weekend lies ahead.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.2°; 15-Year: 40.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.7°; 15-Year: 40.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 41.9°

[donsutherland1]

[Dark Star]

9 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Oh, they mean something alright. People just don't like what they have to say.

The last bastion of truth (in my opinion) was C. Everett Koop.  Since then, everything is fiction, and seems to be increasing exponentially...

[Allsnow]

Cutters everywhere 

[Big Jims Videos]

54 degrees in Clifton where I am now for work. This winter is trash.  

[EasternLI]

I've just been watching, waiting for something to break right. It's just not. This year did hold good potential early on. I almost wish it didn't. It's decided to turn into the Ryan Leaf of winters. Very interesting college career and fell flat on it's face once it got to the pros. The GEFS still looks like crap to me. At some point it's put up or shut up, and I'm at that point now. 

[North and West]

I've just been watching, waiting for something to break right. It's just not. This year did hold good potential early on. I almost wish it didn't. It's decided to turn into the Ryan Leaf of winters. Very interesting college career and fell flat on it's face once it got to the pros. The GEFS still looks like crap to me. At some point it's put up or shut up, and I'm at that point now. 

That’s a deep cut yet spot on.




.

[North and West]

I've just been watching, waiting for something to break right. It's just not. This year did hold good potential early on. I almost wish it didn't. It's decided to turn into the Ryan Leaf of winters. Very interesting college career and fell flat on it's face once it got to the pros. The GEFS still looks like crap to me. At some point it's put up or shut up, and I'm at that point now. 

Additionally, putting AGW aside for a moment (not discounting it, just not having it in the conversation for the time being), this is very much like the early and late 1990s for those too young to remember. We’ve had these winters before. (Yes, I know that it’s warmer; I’m referring to the rain and then cooldown then cutter, repeat)

I distinctly remember daytime thunderstorms in or around January 1991, because I remember Sam Champion going over the radar on Channel 7 on the news when I got home from grammar school.


.

[Allsnow]

This winter was over at the end of December. Nyc will blow past the date of latest measurable and probably end the winter with lowest snowfall….

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     40degs.(36/45) or +7.

Month to date is     45.5[+11.2].         Should be      43.3[+9.5] by the 21st.

Reached 51 here yesterday(midnight).

Today:    Falling T's to 35 by tomorrow AM, wind w. to nw, breezy, rain ending early, variable clouds.

Models not handling the change (if there is one out there).     Flipped from yesterday to ROAST now, at the end of the month:

BN way further west than previous runs:

 

51*(99%RH) here at 6am, drizzle.     49* at 8am.    up to 52* at 9pm.     53* 10am & 11am.      48* at 3pm.      46* at 5pm.      40* at 8pm.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This winter was over at the end of December. Nyc will blow past the date of latest measurable and probably end the winter with lowest snowfall….

You have been on the mark but you are still the only one that thinks winter is over.

[Tatamy]

49 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I've just been watching, waiting for something to break right. It's just not. This year did hold good potential early on. I almost wish it didn't. It's decided to turn into the Ryan Leaf of winters. Very interesting college career and fell flat on it's face once it got to the pros. The GEFS still looks like crap to me. At some point it's put up or shut up, and I'm at that point now. 

This reminds me of many of the winters in this region back in the 70s, 80s, and 90’s.  Yes there were a few good ones however much of the time was like this with AN temps and rainers.  With the pattern this year featuring the raging PAC jet you really can’t go wrong with warm in your outlook.

[Uniblab]

And my daffodils are coming up nicely. 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

This reminds me of many of the winters in this region back in the 70s, 80s, and 90’s.  Yes there were a few good ones however much of the time was like this with AN temps and rainers.  With the pattern this year featuring the raging PAC jet you really can’t go wrong with warm in your outlook.

EXACTLY

I lived through the 80s and 90s and the past 5 years (this included) reminds me 100% of those.

I feel like 2000 through 2018 has warped the view of a lot of trackers who started this century.

90s had only 2 above average snowfall winters and a LOT of absolute torches.

80s had one winter, believe 87, where everything was south of us and we were cold, however I distinctly remember extremely warm months and almost never getting a snow day and complaining to my parents. 

In my mind, we are reverting back to the 30 year 70s 80s and 90s and it's a shock to the system. Probably how trackers felt after the snow blitz of the 1960s.

So in my mind, expecting 2 to 3 above average snowfall seasons over next ten years. 

WE WILL have another great period like this century and the 60s, just hope we do not have to wait as long!

[Tatamy]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

EXACTLY

I lived through the 80s and 90s and the past 5 years (this included) reminds me 100% of those.

I feel like 2000 through 2018 has warped the view of a lot of trackers who started this century.

90s had only 2 above average snowfall winters and a LOT of absolute torches.

80s had one winter, believe 87, where everything was south of us and we were cold, however I distinctly remember extremely warm months and almost never getting a snow day and complaining to my parents. 

In my mind, we are reverting back to the 30 year 70s 80s and 90s and it's a shock to the system. Probably how trackers felt after the snow blitz of the 1960s.

So in my mind, expecting 2 to 3 above average snowfall seasons over next ten years. 

WE WILL have another great period like this century and the 60s, just hope we do not have to wait as long!

Very strongly agree.  

[Snowshack]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Very strongly agree.  

Those 80’s winters at least had plenty of cold intervals.  The snow futility this year may feel the same as those but the fact that we continue to warm I think dampens hopes for future big winters, at least at the coast.   Not saying we’re done, but obviously there’s got to be a breaking point.  

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Those 80’s winters at least had plenty of cold intervals.  The snow futility this year may feel the same as those but the fact that we continue to warm I think dampens hopes for future big winters, at least at the coast.   Not saying we’re done, but obviously there’s got to be a breaking point.  

I think the 90s are a better comparison cold wise.

[Eduardo]

46 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This winter was over at the end of December. Nyc will blow past the date of latest measurable and probably end the winter with lowest snowfall….

I mean, lowest snowfall ever is always a low-probability outcome by default.  I wouldn’t put money on it.  But a true ratter of a winter is really looking likelier by the day.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Additionally, putting AGW aside for a moment (not discounting it, just not having it in the conversation for the time being), this is very much like the early and late 1990s for those too young to remember. We’ve had these winters before. (Yes, I know that it’s warmer; I’m referring to the rain and then cooldown then cutter, repeat)

I distinctly remember daytime thunderstorms in or around January 1991, because I remember Sam Champion going over the radar on Channel 7 on the news when I got home from grammar school.


.

Agree.

Also WRT your AGW comment, I feel like if I do not acknowledge AGW in a post about the past I ruffle feathers for some reason. That should never be the case though.

I too believe that we are warming for a couple of reasons, but I disagree with some who believe we are in a new era and we are the next Miami (I hope someone does not feel the need to reply and argue my opinion).

We will have another great period again in the future just hope we do not wait 30 years again

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think the 90s are a better comparison cold wise.

Lol was just thinking, this December was a typical 80s style fail and this January is a typical 90s style fail. 

[snowman19]

I've just been watching, waiting for something to break right. It's just not. This year did hold good potential early on. I almost wish it didn't. It's decided to turn into the Ryan Leaf of winters. Very interesting college career and fell flat on it's face once it got to the pros. The GEFS still looks like crap to me. At some point it's put up or shut up, and I'm at that point now. 

The GEFS may be rushing it a bit but I think by early February we go RNA/SE ridge. There’s really nothing to stop it. If there’s no -NAO block, we are in trouble

[Brian5671]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You have been on the mark but you are still the only one that thinks winter is over.

I'm in the over camp as well.   Sure we'll get a window end of month/early Feb but I'd bet is underwhelming and likely a cutter track due to persistence of the pattern

[eduggs]

41 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

This reminds me of many of the winters in this region back in the 70s, 80s, and 90’s.  Yes there were a few good ones however much of the time was like this with AN temps and rainers.  With the pattern this year featuring the raging PAC jet you really can’t go wrong with warm in your outlook.

I don't remember any winters like this. Back then there were low snow years and warm periods, but the temperature still went below freezing regularly. This winter is not comparable in that regard. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The GEFS may be rushing it a bit but I think by early February we go RNA/SE ridge. There’s really nothing to stop it. If there’s no -NAO block, we are in trouble

Typical Nina but this weather pattern isn't acting like a Nina.

[eduggs]

It amazes me that people keep looking at ensemble charts out beyond 14 days. They have effectively no skill. We have seen it over and over, yet people don't learn the lesson. If there's light way out there at the end of tunnel, you won't see it coming until it's much closer. Often it will just surprise you in the mid-range.