USCG RS Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 16 hours ago, Tatamy said: People out on eastern LI need to watch closely the model runs for Sunday. Big changes right now for Cape Cod / SE Massachusetts on the GFS/CMC with the following ULL. 100%. This reminds me of a storm that was to go OTS about 20 years (Maybe 23?) and clipped from about Rt. 112 East with some pretty appreciable snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pattern looks really good on all the ensembles. This time looks real . Get ready "I'll fight you with one arm!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Yeah, pretty reliable day 11-15 model bias for at least the last 90 days.https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html And it’s going to happen again. The WAR/SE ridge is going to trend much stronger as we get closer and so is the RNA. You can see the -PNA on the models by the tail end of the month/start of February. Pretty clear at this point we are going to go climo canonical La Niña February as the forcing moves to the IO and Maritime Continent. MJO phases 3-6 and it constructively interferes with the La Niña 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 No one posted but the NAM is closer with Sunday's snows....that same WAR is pushing this a bit west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: And it’s going to happen again. The WAR/SE ridge is going to trend much stronger as we go closer and so is the RNA. You can see the -PNA on the models by the tail end of the month/start of February. Pretty clear at this point we are going to go climo canonical La Niña February as the forcing moves to the IO and Maritime Continent. MJO phases 3-6 and it constructively interferes with the La Niña The trough in the West and the ridge axis near the East Coast has been the common theme. More Niña-like in December with the Aleutians Ridge. Followed by more of a Nino-like Aleutians low in January. But the storm track is still running through the Great Lakes under both regimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The trough in the West and the ridge axis near the East Coast has been the common theme. More Niña-like in December with the Aleutians Ridge. Followed by more of a Nino-like Aleutians low in January. But the storm track is still running through the Great Lakes under both regimes. Seems to be unbreakable this year for the most part. Just one of those years I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: And it’s going to happen again. The WAR/SE ridge is going to trend much stronger as we go closer and so is the RNA. You can see the -PNA on the models by the tail end of the month/start of February. Pretty clear at this point we are going to go climo canonical La Niña February as the forcing moves to the IO and Maritime Continent. MJO phases 3-6 and it constructively interferes with the La Niña You may be absolutely correct and you’re undoubtedly extremely knowledgeable. I actually really enjoy your posts despite your reputation for being a downer. With that said, I do find it kind of odd that on a science forum we have posters telling the professionals here that they’re wrong (or in SnoSki’s case actually calling one “naive?”). It is also, undoubtedly, much easier to keep calling for essentially a continuation of “warm and shitty” during a warm and shitty winter. I think what becomes irksome (at least IMHO) is how you guys have a tendency to imply what you’re saying is verbatim fact and not just an interpretation or opinion. Even if you end up right, I’m still going to lend more weight to what the professional meteorologists that post here have to offer on the subject. Of course it doesn’t mean they’re infallible or that you (and others) are wrong, certainly. But the point is we don’t know for certain how things are going to play out. It’s been a very complicated winter to forecast for the multitude of reasons we all know 50x over by now. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No one posted but the NAM is closer with Sunday's snows....that same WAR is pushing this a bit west The WAR failed us on the third storm in December, watch it fail us now too. It either secures a rainy scenario or allows for an offshore track. This is just one of those winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Go figure, the Atlantic is on fire yet the southern coast (last year Delmarva) or the cape/Eastern LI (continuously for years) benefit from it. We need an El Nino bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 54 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pattern looks really good on all the ensembles. This time looks real . Get ready For cutters… 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Seems to be unbreakable this year for the most part. Just one of those years I guess. 2022 was the warmest on record over the record warm pool just to our east where the perma-ridge keeps popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: For cutters… You seriously don't see a good pattern? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You seriously don't see a good pattern? LOL good pattern for cold or snow? I don't think the snow part is written in stone-could be cold/cutter/cold/cutter pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You seriously don't see a good pattern? LOL Both the CMC and Euro show something interesting at the end of their runs. May be fools gold but I'm still watching the last week in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Honestly this threat is probably the best look Eastern CT and Eastern LI have had this winter, almost every model except the gfs seems to get precip to the twin forks. Admittedly I'm probably paying attention to this more than I normally would because of how horrible this winter is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Both the CMC and Euro show something interesting at the end of their runs. May be fools gold but I'm still watching the last week in January. The fantasy storms showing up again I think is a good sign, we weren't even seeing that on the models in a while (especially if its showing up on models other than just the gfs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You seriously don't see a good pattern? LOL Yes. Seriously. It’s a cutter pattern with a horrible snow mean for nyc. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: good pattern for cold or snow? I don't think the snow part is written in stone-could be cold/cutter/cold/cutter pattern Yuck that is the worst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No one posted but the NAM is closer with Sunday's snows....that same WAR is pushing this a bit west Southeast MA may see a few inches from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 The EPS is already correcting stronger with the SE Ridge day 11-15 from earlier runs. So we may not next see much in the way of cold or snow then. Still looks like a Great Lakes storm track. We would probably need some help from the stratosphere to try and shift the pattern. New run Old run Yep. The -PNA correction is next. We’ve seen this movie before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Thundering here with a batch of heavy rain/storms moving in from the southwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Lightning strikes on January 12th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Thunder and lightning…this winter haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 For cutters…100%. No -NAO block, no 50/50 low. SE ridge, RNA. Cutter/inland runner city. I don’t really care what JB and the other weenie mets say, that is not an east coast snowstorm pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: 100%. No -NAO block, no 50/50 low. SE ridge, RNA. Cutter/inland runner city. I don’t really care what JB and the other weenie mets say, that is not an east coast snowstorm pattern FWIW JB went low on snow-predicted less than 15 inches for NYC. Barring a miracle that looks like a good call.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Thunder here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 A nice soaking rain and some light gusts IMBY now. Can confirm some thunder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 If anyone doubts that La Niña is going to have a major influence on February, look no further. One of the most negative MEI’s in history for December, indicating a very well coupled Niña Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 DT (WxRisk) not buying any kind of pattern change for at least two more weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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