Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. In terms of warmth and lack of snowfall, 2001-02 was the worst. 11-12 too-that was a virtual carbon copy of 01-02 even with the sole snowstorm occurring around 1/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 11-12 too-that was a virtual carbon copy of 01-02 even with the sole snowstorm occurring around 1/20 2011-12 had the October snowstorm that led to a less severe departure on seasonal snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 to all my nyc metro people, may i present to you our next fantasy storm. 12Z GFS. I'm not giving up hope this early in the season, especially for myself here in westchester. Let's see how many times this one gets the ol' switcharoo before it lands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 19 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: to all my nyc metro people, may i present to you our next fantasy storm. 12Z GFS. I'm not giving up hope this early in the season, especially for myself here in westchester. Let's see how many times this one gets the ol' switcharoo before it lands. Congrats Minneapolis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 20 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: to all my nyc metro people, may i present to you our next fantasy storm. 12Z GFS. I'm not giving up hope this early in the season, especially for myself here in westchester. Let's see how many times this one gets the ol' switcharoo before it lands. That looks like a January 1993 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Congrats Minneapolis Maybe Pattern will be changing for the better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Maybe Pattern will be changing for the better I'm really hoping so, my first year back on the east coast in years and I'm just begging for a snowstorm at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 31 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: to all my nyc metro people, may i present to you our next fantasy storm. 12Z GFS. I'm not giving up hope this early in the season, especially for myself here in westchester. Let's see how many times this one gets the ol' switcharoo before it lands. The 222hr/282hr/312hr metro area is having a blockbuster winter this year. My future virtual ruler and future virtual snowblower are all set! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 The 222hr/282hr/312hr metro area is having a blockbuster winter this year. My future virtual ruler and future virtual snowblower are all set! The long range op GFS and twitter has given me over 200 inches of snow so far since November 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The 222hr/282hr/312hr metro area is having a blockbuster winter this year. My future virtual ruler and future virtual snowblower are all set! Actually we haven't even had much fantasy eye candy this year, which contrasts with our other recent bad winters where we've frequently been teased. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 25 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Actually we haven't even had much fantasy eye candy this year, which contrasts with our other recent bad winters where we've frequently been teased. I refuse to give up hope on this winter, but my very primitive knowledge of weather I've gained in the past month has taught me this the GFS was made to get my hopes up the ECMWF was made to shatter my dreams 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: I refuse to give up hope on this winter, but my very primitive knowledge of weather I've gained in the past month has taught me this the GFS was made to get my hopes up the ECMWF was made to shatter my dreams The gfs is good at sniffing out storms 10 days out but its usually not close on the placement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 21 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: I refuse to give up hope on this winter, but my very primitive knowledge of weather I've gained in the past month has taught me this the GFS was made to get my hopes up the ECMWF was made to shatter my dreams Back when the Euro was the undisputed King, people called it Dr. No because it would almost always shoot down whatever fantasies the GFS, NAM and Canadian would spit out, and all but the biggest weenies would take it to the bank. But on the rare occasions when it did show something big inside 5 or 6 days, you knew it was time to get excited. All of that died after January 2015 of course, and since then no model has come close to getting that level of respect (at least for forecasting east coast winter storms). 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 On 1/10/2023 at 12:50 PM, bluewave said: Whatever you want to call it…SE Ridge, WAR, Bermuda High. Notice the 50/50 low got replaced by a giant ridge. We have seen the day 6-10 models underestimate this feature frequently. A ridge in that position has been the dominant feature since the 15-16 super El Niño. You can see a ridge this strong off the East Coast is something new since 1950. New run Old run Long term rising 500 mb heights to our east setting new records We need the Bermuda Triangle to make the Bermuda High disappear..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said: Actually we haven't even had much fantasy eye candy this year, which contrasts with our other recent bad winters where we've frequently been teased. That shows that our climate this year is more like Atlanta than it is New York. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 On 1/10/2023 at 12:33 PM, Allsnow said: 2010 was a fun few weeks but 13-14 was the better winter I thought 14-15 was better but that's because it was colder and the storms were all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: That shows that our climate this year is more like Atlanta than it is New York. Checks out because down by me may as well be Orlando. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: 11-12 too-that was a virtual carbon copy of 01-02 even with the sole snowstorm occurring around 1/20 Many places in north nj and into sne were above avg snowfall wise into January during the 11-12 season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 hours ago, vegan_edible said: I'm really hoping so, my first year back on the east coast in years and I'm just begging for a snowstorm at this point Forget snowstorm.. Begging for even an inch. Even a dusting would be nice. It's really bizarre the complete lack of snowfall up here, not even flurries or snow showers, except for that event in Dec that bagged me 3-4 inches. Back in the day with snow droughts, I remember TV mets would say "cheer up snow lovers, mother nature has a way of balancing things out, be patient." Not sure about that balancing reassurance nowadays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 It's going to take alot to convince me we are moving into a better pattern. I will start to buy in once we are within 5-7 days. As far as specific storm threats we will need to be within 3-4 days. I would rather be pleasantly surprised then highly disappointed. Keeping expectations in check for now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Many places in north nj and into sne were above avg snowfall wise into January during the 11-12 season 97-98 notwithstanding, 01-02 will always be my GOAT of snowless seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: It's going to take alot to convince me we are moving into a better pattern. I will start to buy in once we are within 5-7 days. As far as specific storm threats we will need to be within 3-4 days. I would rather be pleasantly surprised then highly disappointed. Keeping expectations in check for now. Okay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Okay Is winter still “coming back?” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Is winter still “coming back?” Bluewave has pointed this out time and again with the undermodeled WAR in the long range for years now. All the models show it being there. I wouldn’t be surprised if the WAR gets stronger as we get closer and it keeps the cold west of us may make it hard for the cold to progress east 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/01/11/siberia-russia-extreme-cold/Does this eventually make its way this way or nah?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Clouds will increase tonight as a storm moves toward Lake Erie. Temperatures could begin to rise toward morning. Afterward, that storm will head up the St. Lawrence River Valley. That storm will bring a period of rain to the region tomorrow evening into Friday. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely. Following the storm, a seasonably cool air mass will overspread the region for the close of the weekend. However, milder weather will follow early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions. The SOI was +7.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.711 today. On January 9 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.912 (RMM). The January 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.872 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (6.9° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 I gotta say, with so little snowfall, it sure is cloudy out a lot. This has been one of the most depressing winters weather-wise. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Bluewave has pointed this out time and again with the undermodeled WAR in the long range for years now. All the models show it being there. I wouldn’t be surprised if the WAR gets stronger as we get closer and it keeps the cold west of us may make it hard for the cold to progress east I'd like to find out if other parts of the world experience an issue similar to the "WAR" or is it that we are geographically unluckly? I don't see a big western Pacific ridge mentioned with regards to snowfall in northern Japan for example-- so maybe this is just an issue for us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 hours ago, North and West said: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/01/11/siberia-russia-extreme-cold/ Does this eventually make its way this way or nah? . Asia is 10x the continent that puny North America is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 hours ago, TriPol said: I gotta say, with so little snowfall, it sure is cloudy out a lot. This has been one of the most depressing winters weather-wise. Agree. I hate cloudy and mild in the winter. I would much rather have sun if it's going to be mild. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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