January 2023

[SnowGoose69]

The one notable difference on ensembles this time in the flip post 1/19 or so is that the agreement is way better...you may remember in late December even though the GEFS/GEPS/EPS showed western ridging the average was not especially red...you had basically normal heights...this time you're seeing dark reds show up so the ensemble member agreement is more or less unanimous this time around.  Its just a question if it has any staying power and much like all the pattern flips we've seen the last 8 weeks by the time you enter it do you already see the change to something else showing up by D14

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

18-19 everything fell in November and March with very little during met winter 

Least snowfall during meteorological winter (Central Park):

1. 0.5", 1997-1998 (Season total: 5.5")
2. 1.1", 1918-1919 (Season total: 3.8")
3. 2.6", 1972-1973 (Season total: 2.8")
4. 2.7", 1931-1932 (Season total: 5.3")
5. 3.2", 1991-1992 (Season total: 12.6")
6. 3.5", 2001-2002 (Season total: 3.5")
7. 3.7", 2018-2019 (Season total: 20.5")
8. 4.5", 2011-2012 (Season total: 7.4")
9. 4.8", 2019-2020 (Season total: 4.8")
10. 5.0", 1989-1990 (Season total: 13.4")

Most snowfall during meteorological winter (Central Park):
1. 60.9", 2010-2011 (Season total: 61.9")
2. 59.1", 1947-1948 (Season total: 63.9")
3. 58.8", 1995-1996 (Season total: 75.6")
4. 57.3", 2013-2014 (Season total: 57.4")
5. 56.3", 1872-1873 (Season total: 60.2")
6. 53.5", 1960-1961 (Season total: 54.7")
7. 51.4", 2009-2010 (Season total: 51.4")
8. 51.3", 1922-1923 (Season total: 60.4")
9. 45.9", 1904-1905 (Season total: 48.2")
10. 45.3", 1993-1994 (Season total: 53.4")

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Least snowfall during meteorological winter (Central Park):

1. 0.5", 1997-1998 (Season total: 5.5")
2. 1.1", 1918-1919 (Season total: 3.8")
3. 2.6", 1972-1973 (Season total: 2.8")
4. 2.7", 1931-1932 (Season total: 5.3")
5. 3.2", 1991-1992 (Season total: 12.6")
6. 3.5", 2001-2002 (Season total: 3.5")
7. 3.7", 2018-2019 (Season total: 20.5")
8. 4.5", 2011-2012 (Season total: 7.4")
9. 4.8", 2019-2020 (Season total: 4.8")
10. 5.0", 1989-1990 (Season total: 13.4")

Most snowfall during meteorological winter (Central Park):
1. 60.9", 2010-2011 (Season total: 61.9")
2. 59.1", 1947-1948 (Season total: 63.9")
3. 58.8", 1995-1996 (Season total: 75.6")
4. 57.3", 2013-2014 (Season total: 57.4")
5. 56.3", 1872-1873 (Season total: 60.2")
6. 53.5", 1960-1961 (Season total: 54.7")
7. 51.4", 2009-2010 (Season total: 51.4")
8. 51.3", 1922-1923 (Season total: 60.4")
9. 45.9", 1904-1905 (Season total: 48.2")
10. 45.3", 1993-1994 (Season total: 53.4")

Don-

You are the "STAT MASTER".  Great stuff as always.

[lee59]

Still a little hope for Sunday as  both the GFS and CMC have a storm developing on the offshore front. To far east to affect us, at this point.

[Stormlover74]

2013-14 came so close to being the best ever

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

2013-14 came so close to being the best ever

I think 2010-11 had a better chance since it had 2 HECS

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Least snowfall during meteorological winter (Central Park):

1. 0.5", 1997-1998 (Season total: 5.5")
2. 1.1", 1918-1919 (Season total: 3.8")
3. 2.6", 1972-1973 (Season total: 2.8")
4. 2.7", 1931-1932 (Season total: 5.3")
5. 3.2", 1991-1992 (Season total: 12.6")
6. 3.5", 2001-2002 (Season total: 3.5")
7. 3.7", 2018-2019 (Season total: 20.5")
8. 4.5", 2011-2012 (Season total: 7.4")
9. 4.8", 2019-2020 (Season total: 4.8")
10. 5.0", 1989-1990 (Season total: 13.4")

Most snowfall during meteorological winter (Central Park):
1. 60.9", 2010-2011 (Season total: 61.9")
2. 59.1", 1947-1948 (Season total: 63.9")
3. 58.8", 1995-1996 (Season total: 75.6")
4. 57.3", 2013-2014 (Season total: 57.4")
5. 56.3", 1872-1873 (Season total: 60.2")
6. 53.5", 1960-1961 (Season total: 54.7")
7. 51.4", 2009-2010 (Season total: 51.4")
8. 51.3", 1922-1923 (Season total: 60.4")
9. 45.9", 1904-1905 (Season total: 48.2")
10. 45.3", 1993-1994 (Season total: 53.4")

Wild to see 1918-19 like that when 1916-17 and 1917-18 were historically cold and snowy (our only back to back 60"+ snowfall seasons, I think?)

 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I think 2010-11 had a better chance since it had 2 HECS

 

True but it was all in one month. 13-14 was a more classic prolonged winter.  We just needed March to produce in both cases

[snowman19]

The one notable difference on ensembles this time in the flip post 1/19 or so is that the agreement is way better...you may remember in late December even though the GEFS/GEPS/EPS showed western ridging the average was not especially red...you had basically normal heights...this time you're seeing dark reds show up so the ensemble member agreement is more or less unanimous this time around.  Its just a question if it has any staying power and much like all the pattern flips we've seen the last 8 weeks by the time you enter it do you already see the change to something else showing up by D14

I very seriously doubt a +PNA having any staying power. The La Niña is still moderate (Region 3.4 is -1.1C), the SOI is still very high and the trade winds are still anomalously very strong. I can’t imagine the +PNA sticking around long before we go RNA again, especially given Niña climo in February

[Eduardo]

Just now, snowman19 said:

I very seriously doubt a +PNA having any staying power. The La Niña is still moderate (Region 3.4 is -1.1C), the SOI is still very high and the trade winds are still anomalously very strong. I can’t imagine the PNA sticking around long before we go RNA again, especially given Niña climo in February

I tend to agree, although a fleeting PNA might give us a window during peak climo where we can score even with stale PAC air.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wild to see 1918-19 like that when 1916-17 and 1917-18 were historically cold and snowy (our only back to back 60"+ snowfall seasons, I think?)

 

Winters 1915-16 and 1916-17 were the first with two consecutive 50" amounts. Later, Winters 2009-10/2010-11 and 2013-14/2014-15 matched that outcome.

[Winterweatherlover]

24 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Still a little hope for Sunday as  both the GFS and CMC have a storm developing on the offshore front. To far east to affect us, at this point.

It's definitely a long shot but rather too far east than too far west at this range. 

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

True but it was all in one month. 13-14 was a more classic prolonged winter.  We just needed March to produce in both cases

Yup. That was the modern day version of 93-94. I was talking about that winter a few days ago. We would have broken 96 record but march ended up cold dry that year. Dam TPV 

[Allsnow]

2010 was a fun few weeks but 13-14 was the better winter 

[Great Snow 1717]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wild to see 1918-19 like that when 1916-17 and 1917-18 were historically cold and snowy (our only back to back 60"+ snowfall seasons, I think?)

 

back then snow was usually measured after it had stopped snowing. Sometimes it may had been hours later  How much that impacted snowfall totals is unknown.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t see a se ridge here….

Whatever you want to call it…SE Ridge, WAR, Bermuda High. Notice the 50/50 low got replaced by a giant ridge. We have seen the day 6-10 models underestimate this feature frequently. A ridge in that position has been the dominant feature since the 15-16 super El Niño. You can see a ridge this strong off the East Coast is something new since 1950. 

New run

Old run

 

Long term rising 500 mb heights to our east setting new records

 

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Still a little hope for Sunday as  both the GFS and CMC have a storm developing on the offshore front. To far east to affect us, at this point.

Yeah that's a real longshot. 12z Euro isn't even close. Way offshore. It's continues to look like rain late thursday into early friday and then a dry chilly weekend. A very mild week next week. 

[snowman19]

Whatever you want to call it…SE Ridge, WAR, Bermuda High. Notice the 50/50 low got replaced by a giant ridge. We have seen the day 6-10 models underestimate this feature frequently. A ridge in that position has been the dominant feature since the 15-16 super El Niño. You can see a ridge this strong off the East Coast is something new since 1950. 

New run

Old run

 
Long term rising 500 mb heights to our east setting new records




 
 

There’s a positive feedback loop with the SSTs and that WAR. It’s been a staple for years now and a big reason for non cooperation on the Atlantic side

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winters 1915-16 and 1916-17 were the first with two consecutive 50" amounts. Later, Winters 2009-10/2010-11 and 2013-14/2014-15 matched that outcome.

Beginning to think the 50” and higher amounts of the 2000-2018 era was an anomaly that we were lucky enough to have experienced lol 

[495weatherguy]

16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Beginning to think the 50” and higher amounts of the 2000-2018 era was an anomaly that we were lucky enough to have experienced lol 

This

Especially for those who live on or near the coast.  

[North and West]

Beginning to think the 50” and higher amounts of the 2000-2018 era was an anomaly that we were lucky enough to have experienced lol 

Averages have to come from somewhere.


.

[romba]

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

Averages have to come from somewhere.


.

Yup, for every 50+ year we have last year and this year. +sst were often cited as juicing already amped but cold coastals in the 2010's, now they're cited as a reason the Atlantic often doesn't cooperate.

I love the summer and warmth, but during that first cold spell in October when you start to check out the models to see what's cooking for November, the hope is palpable. It's rough when it doesn't amount to anything. Though tracking-wise, last year was worse than this year in the sense that we had many more storms look good in the 5-7 day range (one model would tend to cling until 3-4 days giving us weenies one last breath before going under), this year we get our hopes dashed much earlier. Usually it's clear 7 days out across all the models that we're gonna rain, which is easier on the soul. Progress I guess?

[lee59]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Beginning to think the 50” and higher amounts of the 2000-2018 era was an anomaly that we were lucky enough to have experienced lol 

It may have been. If we have to now average that out, there are  going to be a lot of disappointed people on this forum.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with readings that are a bit above normal.Clouds will increase tomorrow night as a storm moves toward Lake Erie and then up the St. Lawrence River Valley afterward. That storm will bring a period of rain to the region Thursday night into Friday.

Following the storm, a seasonably cool air mass will overspread the region for the close of the weekend. However, milder weather will follow early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions.

The SOI was +3.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.294 today.

On January 8 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.870 (RMM). The January 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.673 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (6.9° above normal).

 

[Typhoon Tip]

It seems you folks are setting the bar rather low. 

Personally ..I'm not worried for the NYC s-forum, not on Jan 10 - not from what I'm looking at.

Will revisit Feb 10... 

Observed pressure and wind patterns in the deep layer troposphere signal an ENSO break-down may be underway. The recent attempt by multi-guidance source on MJO propagation through ( albeit low amplitude) phase 8-1-2 is already in a constructive interference with a firehose Pacific anachronistic NINO flow.  A planetary wave reshuffle toward a NE Pac AB circulation mode is not altogether a terrible fit for a longer resolution, as longitudinal flow tends to precede the materialization of ridging. 

That's the pattern modulation...  where's the goods?  Agreed, but we set the table first.  

Noting some recent GFS cycles did take a primitive stab at an index scaled event ...way out toward 270 - little or no actual deterministic value at the this time.  Give it a week.   

It only takes one event in/when the global pwat budget is what it is.  You could bang out a foot in 6 -9 hours from clipper/NJ model low and still see the sun sun set.   

 

 

[romba]

Nice signal on the GFS, just 9 short days away 

[North and West]

It seems you folks are setting the bar rather low. 
Personally ..I'm not worried for the NYC s-forum, not on Jan 10 - not from what I'm looking at.
Will revisit Feb 10... 
Observed pressure and wind patterns in the deep layer troposphere signal an ENSO break-down may be underway. The recent attempt by multi-guidance source on MJO propagation through ( albeit low amplitude) phase 8-1-2 is already in a constructive interference with a firehose Pacific anachronistic NINO flow.  A planetary wave reshuffle toward a NE Pac AB circulation mode is not altogether a terrible fit for a longer resolution, as longitudinal flow tends to precede the materialization of ridging. 
That's the pattern modulation...  where's the goods?  Agreed, but we set the table first.  
Noting some recent GFS cycles did take a primitive stab at an index scaled event ...way out toward 270 - little or no actual deterministic value at the this time.  Give it a week.   
It only takes one event in/when the global pwat budget is what it is.  You could bang out a foot in 6 -9 hours from clipper/NJ model low and still see the sun sun set.   
 
 

.

[mannynyc]

7 minutes ago, romba said:

Nice signal on the GFS, just 9 short days away 

We’ve gone a few days without a GFS fantasy storm. We needed this.

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Beginning to think the 50” and higher amounts of the 2000-2018 era was an anomaly that we were lucky enough to have experienced lol 

 

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

It may have been. If we have to now average that out, there are  going to be a lot of disappointed people on this forum.

How do you think us weenies felt in the 70s and 80s? Other than a few notable events the immediate metro area for skunked time and again. 

@Typhoon Tip Thanks for the reality check

[495weatherguy]

9 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

 

How do you think us weenies felt in the 70s and 80s? Other than a few notable events the immediate metro area for skunked time and again. 

@Typhoon Tip Thanks for the reality check

Truth.  The 70’s and 80’s were a disappointment for those who wanted snow at the coast