January 2023

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

This is a new wildcards as well last couple of winters-makes alot of analogs from colder periods not as reliable.    I also heard a rule of thumb that when the SST's are above normal off the east coast, "hit and hold" cold is less likely.

If I were a betting man, I would bet that we will have blocking that does not link with the SE ridge in December in the future, the warm Atlantic cycle has not made that impossible. 

Also, the warm cycle can help us as well, if the Atlantic was this warm in December 89 we would have been buried.

You and I are the lucky ones on this forum, all of Connecticut has avoided a shut out. 

Stamford had 0.5 and BDR 0.8.

Only LGA in NYC has avoided the shut out with 0.4.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

From Typhoon Tip on the NE subforum, thought this was a great post worth sharing here:

 

[EastonSN+]

14 hours ago, Allsnow said:

We might not get measurable snow in nyc this winter. I’m openly rooting for it now 

Yeah I can see some rooting for it.

Like rooting for the undefeated football season to occur again. It's going to happen again at some point.

97/98 made it to mid March! Maybe this time the fluke is avoided?

I still think odds of a complete shut out is low due to duration and late season volatility. We have seen a lot of snowfall flukes over the years. 

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Last point, a warm Atlantic is not going to cause a storm to move from off the Delmarva to Canada. From off the coast to a coastal hugger or even an inland runner sure, but not a coastal to Canada.

It could be enough. Notice how the day 6-10 forecasts really underestimated the SE Ridge. So the low that was forecast to track across the Southeast is now into the Great Lakes instead. Not much change on the Pacific side between both runs. So it leaves the record SSTs off the coast as the an explanation. We have been seeing this over and over again. The big storm before Christmas originally started out as a coastal low before becoming a cutter. 

 

New run

Old run

 

[WarrenCtyWx]

Everyone keeps bringing up December 1989, but I was under the impression that that month had a robust +PNA and -EPO with a less favorable Atlantic. I’m not sure how it’s all that comparable with the December we just went through.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could be enough. Notice how the day 6-10 forecasts really underestimated the SE Ridge. So the low that was forecast to track across the Southeast is now into the Great Lakes instead. Not much change on the Pacific side between both runs. So it leaves the record SSTs off the coast as the an explanation. We have been seeing this over and over again. The big storm before Christmas originally started out as a coastal low before becoming a cutter. 

 

New run

Old run

 

IT’s phasing with northern stream energy which is allowing that track. Imo nothing to do with the ridge off the east coast. Either way, another costal signal that turned into a cutter. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

IT’s phasing with northern stream energy which is allowing that track. Imo nothing to do with the ridge off the east coast. Either way, another costal signal that turned into a cutter. 

It’s a similar evolution to the one that was shown last week with a closed low to our west. The only change is the 50/50 in the forecast from last week that was replaced by the SE Ridge or WAR off the coast.This is the same thing that happened with the storm before Christmas. So the record warm Gulf Stream circulation should be taken into account. The entire North Atlantic is near the warmest on record for January.

 

New run

Old run

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Today will become the 307th consecutive day without measurable snowfall in Central Park. That ties March 5, 1891-January 5, 1892 as the 6th longest such stretch. Winter 2022-2023 will become just the 8th winter on record that has seen no measurable snowfall through January 10th.

Even as the measurable snow drought looks likely to continue through the near-term, the statistical probability of Central Park's having less than 1" seasonal snowfall is very low (a "near miss" occurred during Winter 1997-1998. The statistical probability of seeing no measurable snowfall is exceedingly low.

Note: With the warming climate, the actual probabilities are likely higher than those reflected by the implied probabilities derived from Central Park's 1869-2022 climate record. For example, since 1990 the implied probabilities of no measurable snowfall in Central Park through December and January are 24.9% and 0.8% respectively. The actual probabilities since 1990 have been 21.2% and 0.0%.

[EastonSN+]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could be enough. Notice how the day 6-10 forecasts really underestimated the SE Ridge. So the low that was forecast to track across the Southeast is now into the Great Lakes instead. Not much change on the Pacific side between both runs. So it leaves the record SSTs off the coast as the an explanation. We have been seeing this over and over again. The big storm before Christmas originally started out as a coastal low before becoming a cutter. 

 

New run

Old run

 

We shall see in the coming years if this rains true. If it is, winter as we used to know it is over.

Isn't the Northern stream dominate in La Ninas? 

 

[Allsnow]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s a similar evolution to the one that was shown last week with a closed low to our west. The only change is the 50/50 in the forecast from last week they was replaced by the SE Ridge. This is the same thing that happened with the storm before Christmas. So the record warm Gulf Stream circulation should be take into account. The entire North Atlantic is the warmest on record for January.

 

New run

Old run

 

 

I don’t see a se ridge here….

[EastonSN+]

52 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Everyone keeps bringing up December 1989, but I was under the impression that that month had a robust +PNA and -EPO with a less favorable Atlantic. I’m not sure how it’s all that comparable with the December we just went through.

I believe it did, however was using the potential that warmer Atlantic waters could have allowed for less suppression.

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We shall see in the coming years if this rains true. If it is, winter as we used to know it is over.

Isn't the Northern stream dominate in La Ninas? 

 

The northern stream is dominant in La Ninas. But we are getting more of Nino-like pattern this month with the jet a little further south. But not quite as far south as in a true El Niño.

The -2.716 AO was the 2nd lowest on record in December behind 2009 and was a little more negative than 2010. Notice the other La Niña Decembers with such a -AO below -2 had much more snow like 2010,2000, and 1995. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

 

[snowman19]

IT’s phasing with northern stream energy which is allowing that track. Imo nothing to do with the ridge off the east coast. Either way, another costal signal that turned into a cutter. 

And of course the tail end of the month doesn’t look all that cold anymore (I’m sure you’re shocked). Why? Because Canada is still completely flooded with PAC garbage and with no cross polar flow it’s going to take awhile to rebuild the cold.

[Stormlover74]

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We shall see in the coming years if this rains true. If it is, winter as we used to know it is over.

Isn't the Northern stream dominate in La Ninas? 

 

It's definitely raining 

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The northern stream is dominant in La Ninas. But we are getting more of Nino-like pattern this month with the jet a little further south. But not quite as far south as in a true El Niño.

The -2.716 AO was the 2nd lowest on record in December behind 2009 and was a little more negative than 2010. Notice the other La Niña Decembers with such a -AO below -2 had much more snow like 2010,2000, and 1995. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

 

Right, but we're all the other factors the same as well? i.e. PNA level, EPO level, MJO, et all? 

I feel that small factors/differences can make a massive difference in results. 2000 was one storm at the end of the month, if it was slightly west the amount would have been greatly reduced (obviously same with just east). 

The good news? We will find out over the coming years

 

[EastonSN+]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Courtesy and thanks to Benchmark.

[EastonSN+]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Compared to 2001. 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I have to respectfully disagree.

Yes the Atlantic is in a warm cycle, and may have affected one of the storms, however there was bad luck.

For instance if the big storm was a little weaker, it would have allowed the follow up wave to strengthen more and potentially give us snow. 

If the northern stream wasn't so dominant (typical la Nina), the larger storm could have transferred to the coastal low and although hugging the coast and changing to rain, could have dropped a couple inches.

I do agree that the pattern was not epic, where people were comparing to 2010 due to the fact that, per the New England forum, the PAC was not as favorable as 2010 AND not to mention the negative NAO was not as strong as 2010. However, it was a Decent setup that I would take chances with again any December.

Last point, a warm Atlantic is not going to cause a storm to move from off the Delmarva to Canada. From off the coast to a coastal hugger or even an inland runner sure, but not a coastal to Canada.

What the statistics show though is that the coastal plain does not do well in December outside of exceptional setups.  I don't think the coast should ever expect much snow in December.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Right, but we're all the other factors the same as well? i.e. PNA level, EPO level, MJO, et all? 

I feel that small factors/differences can make a massive difference in results. 2000 was one storm at the end of the month, if it was slightly west the amount would have been greatly reduced (obviously same with just east). 

The good news? We will find out over the coming years

 

I think we already know because this area has become a swing and miss type of snowfall regime.  In other words you will either get a lot of snow or none at all.  You being further northeast will of course do better than NYC and most of us.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

We shall see in the coming years if this rains true. If it is, winter as we used to know it is over.

Isn't the Northern stream dominate in La Ninas? 

 

Winter isn't actually over, we just have to readjust our expectations to a boom or bust type system.  We'll either get a lot of snow or very little-- "average" snowfall amounts no longer occur outside of a few rare winters.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Everyone keeps bringing up December 1989, but I was under the impression that that month had a robust +PNA and -EPO with a less favorable Atlantic. I’m not sure how it’s all that comparable with the December we just went through.

Atlantic was fine in December, it got bad in January

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I can see some rooting for it.

Like rooting for the undefeated football season to occur again. It's going to happen again at some point.

97/98 made it to mid March! Maybe this time the fluke is avoided?

I still think odds of a complete shut out is low due to duration and late season volatility. We have seen a lot of snowfall flukes over the years. 

There was measurable snowfall in 97-98 during winter just not an inch-- 0.5" I think.  The snowfall in March actually occurred after winter was over, it was on the equinox.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Nope, the fact that the possible SSW is falling by the wayside is bad news, that may have been a monkey wrench in the climo Niña February. The +PNA that’s showing up at the tail end of this month with the jet retraction…..yeah, you aren’t sustaining that, not with a moderate La Niña in place, just a matter of time before it retros to the Aleutians and we go RNA. Silver lining is next year is probably El Niño or at least warm-neutral

neutral probably means even less snow than this winter haha

 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There was measurable snowfall in 97-98 during winter just not an inch-- 0.5" I think.  The snowfall in March actually occurred after winter was over, it was on the equinox.

 

And a complete surprise. Noone forecasted a switch to snow let alone several inches with the March storm

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There was measurable snowfall in 97-98 during winter just not an inch-- 0.5" I think.  The snowfall in March actually occurred after winter was over, it was on the equinox.

 

18-19 everything fell in November and March with very little during met winter 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m really cherishing last January, it was a gift for me in this overarching crappy state of winter the past few years. Was cold and wintry almost the entire month, and that area wide Jan 7th event was the kind of thing it feels like we’ve been missing lately (moderate snows). And then Jan 29th was extremely fun to track with lots of swings and surprises, despite it being not quite a blockbuster for most of the subforum it still brought me a 22f 16 inch snowstorm which is top end for this current enduring pattern of meh. 

Thats what I miss too.  I would prefer to see 4-5 4-6 inch storms rather than wait for a footer that may or may not happen and get shut out the rest of the winter or get an inconsequential 1 or 2 incher.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

And a complete surprise. Noone forecasted a switch to snow let alone several inches with the March storm

Yup and it melted the same day.  What a weird way to end the season-- it would have easily been the least snowy winter ever without that.  Philly didn't get it and ended up with a T for the entire season.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

18-19 everything fell in November and March with very little during met winter 

Was the other 0.5" in November-- I don't remember.

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was the other 0.5" in November-- I don't remember.

 

No that was the big surprise mid November storm. Around 6"

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

No that was the big surprise mid November storm. Around 6"

I remember-- that was supposed to be rain lol