Winterweatherlover Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: In the last 26-30 years winters have not had many incidents outside of El Nino where Dec/Jan are bad and Feb is good...we have seen many cases of bad Dec good Jan bad Feb in neutral or Nina...88-89 I guess would be closest thing to this winter so far in that Dec 88 was okay but we just could not get anything to work, Jan 89 was awful but we got a fluke snow event then February was somewhat cold but again we could not manage any snow Was December really that bad though? Verbatim snow in NYC was low but the pattern wasn't too bad, just some near misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Was December really that bad though? Verbatim snow in NYC was low but the pattern wasn't too bad, just some near misses. it was awful warm and dry is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: In the last 26-30 years winters have not had many incidents outside of El Nino where Dec/Jan are bad and Feb is good...we have seen many cases of bad Dec good Jan bad Feb in neutral or Nina...88-89 I guess would be closest thing to this winter so far in that Dec 88 was okay but we just could not get anything to work, Jan 89 was awful but we got a fluke snow event then February was somewhat cold but again we could not manage any snow Feb 89 that was some kind of bad-- almost as bad As Dec 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 49 minutes ago, HailMan06 said: On a slightly OT note I’m curious what our summer pattern will be like. I’ve heard that it could be an interesting year weather-wise. hot and dry spring/summer with some tropical threats august and beyond but if an el nino materializes expect that to be muted. 2002 spring/summer should be a nice analog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) You can tell he's not really that excited-- when he gets excited the ALERT magically turns into ALEET ALEET 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Looks like CMC lost the backend wave Sunday-Monday, I'm not surprised. Yep the CMC lost the idea of a 2nd low giving us some precip on saturday. Nothing even gets close. It looks like the GFS now ... some rain thursday night into friday and then a dry weekend. I'm guessing the Euro will lose it tonight too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: December wasn't that bad of a pattern, just a lot of bad luck near the coast but places in the NW parts of the subforum did decently. Not bad luck, the atlantic was too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 hours ago, Rjay said: At least the 12z gfs was warming up for summer with an east coast landfall threat Didn't we actually have something like this in December 1994? It made landfall near JFK with storm force winds while still moving westward. It should have been classified as a TC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Not bad luck, the atlantic was too warm Yea the same pattern in February should be ok as the atlantic would be colder. I'm not saying big snow but at least should be more interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’m still waiting for all the snow and cold you said was coming back in November. I had more fake snow under my Christmas tree than we’ve had in 3 months You get the last laugh with this winter, but I'd like to call your attention to the fact that you too predicted a somewhat snowy December. As I recall you said there would be no huge snowfalls, but we would get a few minor to moderate ones to make December somewhat snowy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Dude stop being a moron and admit the pattern looked good in late November into December . There were plenty of meteorologists ( not only JB ) stating how good the pattern was. Think before you post The indices looked good-- I'm not actually sure the pattern was really good .... think about it, we only got really cold just before Christmas. This really wasn't December 2010 where it was cold for over a week before we got the big snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 7 hours ago, Rjay said: There's been plenty of winters without a significant snowfall (6"+ in a single event). In regards to no measureable snow, it's unlikely that we get completely shut out. It's only January 9th. It would take incredibly bad luck for that to happen but it's possible. If Philly got it in 1997-98 we can get it. At some point it's time to start rooting for that-- after all, that would be historic too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 6 hours ago, North and West said: Just my hunch this year is that if it happens (pitch a shutout in Central Park), it’s more random luck rather than AGW. Just as in snowier years are more random variables, so “good” luck. Yes, of course AGW impacts it, but it’s likely just random chance. . everything is cause and effect, there is no true "randomness" in AGW extremes get more extreme so we expect both much snowier seasons and seasons with very little snow. and that's what we've been seeing for the last couple of decades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 8 hours ago, nycwinter said: i will enjoy a colder spring then a warm winter who wants 90's in april and may dry and hot with beautiful blue skies is awesome a la April 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: everything is cause and effect, there is no true "randomness" in AGW extremes get more extreme so we expect both much snowier seasons and seasons with very little snow. and that's what we've been seeing for the last couple of decades Seems we haven't had a much snowier season in several winters now but I guess its balancing out for the early 2010s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Seems we haven't had a much snowier season in several winters now but I guess its balancing out for the early 2010s. Yeah the things we are not getting anymore are normal snowfall seasons (between 22-28 inches) and we're also not getting moderate snowfalls anymore (2-4 inches, 3-5 inches, etc.) They seem to be either 40"+ or under 20" seasons and either dusting-2 inch snows or 6"+ (usually 10"+) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Pretty amazing, this La Niña won’t give up, Region 3.4 still -1.1C 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Pretty amazing, this La Niña won’t give up, Region 3.4 still -1.1C https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Pretty amazing, this La Niña won’t give up, Region 3.4 still -1.1C El Nino next winter Let's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Takes a break? A break from what?Grammar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Nothing is going right this winter SMFH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and mild. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 45° Dry and mild weather will continue through midweek. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.5°; 15-Year: 40.3° Newark: 30-Year: 39.9°; 15-Year: 41.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.3°; 15-Year: 42.2° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Nothing is going right this winter SMFHNope, the fact that the possible SSW is falling by the wayside is bad news, that may have been a monkey wrench in the climo Niña February. The +PNA that’s showing up at the tail end of this month with the jet retraction…..yeah, you aren’t sustaining that, not with a moderate La Niña in place, just a matter of time before it retros to the Aleutians and we go RNA. Silver lining is next year is probably El Niño or at least warm-neutral 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, snowman19 said: Nope, the fact that the possible SSW is falling by the wayside is bad news, that may have been a monkey wrench in the climo Niña February. The +PNA that’s showing up at the tail end of this month with the jet retraction…..yeah, you aren’t sustaining that, not with a moderate La Niña in place, just a matter of time before it retros to the Aleutians and we go RNA. Silver lining is next year is probably El Niño or at least warm-neutral Maybe congrats DC next winter 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 The updated EPS ensemble guidance for New York City is below. The probability of 1" or more snowfall has declined further. The National Blend of Models currently shows no accumulation for New York City. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(35/44) or +6. Reached 44 here yesterday. Month to date is 47.1[+12.6]. Should be 43.2[+9.5] by the 18th. Today: 42-45, wind w. to n., variable clouds, 34 tomorrow AM. Looking different here but not really great. A guess: The next BN day is Jan. 28---more than a month since the last one and beyond the chart below. 38*(63%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 8am. 40* at 10am. Reached 41* at Noon---5pm. Finally after 9 hours 40* at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Maybe congrats DC next winter Good morning Anthony. If so, though not being on stage, we’ll at least have a front row seat. It will also change the eternal question; “how much for Philly?” to “how much did Philly get?”. Stay well, as always …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I’m really cherishing last January, it was a gift for me in this overarching crappy state of winter the past few years. Was cold and wintry almost the entire month, and that area wide Jan 7th event was the kind of thing it feels like we’ve been missing lately (moderate snows). And then Jan 29th was extremely fun to track with lots of swings and surprises, despite it being not quite a blockbuster for most of the subforum it still brought me a 22f 16 inch snowstorm which is top end for this current enduring pattern of meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Not bad luck, the atlantic was too warm I have to respectfully disagree. Yes the Atlantic is in a warm cycle, and may have affected one of the storms, however there was bad luck. For instance if the big storm was a little weaker, it would have allowed the follow up wave to strengthen more and potentially give us snow. If the northern stream wasn't so dominant (typical la Nina), the larger storm could have transferred to the coastal low and although hugging the coast and changing to rain, could have dropped a couple inches. I do agree that the pattern was not epic, where people were comparing to 2010 due to the fact that, per the New England forum, the PAC was not as favorable as 2010 AND not to mention the negative NAO was not as strong as 2010. However, it was a Decent setup that I would take chances with again any December. Last point, a warm Atlantic is not going to cause a storm to move from off the Delmarva to Canada. From off the coast to a coastal hugger or even an inland runner sure, but not a coastal to Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 Wantage NJ 740'MSL 7" to date. Normal SEASONAL winter about 40" give or take an inch. I'll accept an inch between Thursday-Sunday here on the edge of I84 corridor, if we can be so fortunate. Check back tomorrow. Still some hope for Sat-early Sunday, but not much. It's just 96 hours from possibly sharpening a little more than modeled? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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