donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Morning thoughts… Light precipitation will end this morning. Clouds will give way to sunshine during the late morning or afternoon. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 47° Dry and mild weather will continue through midweek. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.5°; 15-Year: 40.5° Newark: 30-Year: 40.0°; 15-Year: 41.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.4°; 15-Year: 42.3° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 EPS guidance for NYC (January 13-15 period): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Something is seriously shady with the amount of salters I saw dumping tons of salt on the way into work on the uws. I run snow removal for a college and would never dump salt 1. during rain 2. with a solid forecast of above freezing temps. Since salt is damaging to vehicles and the environment something is up. Possibly a good old boys overtime scheme in a low snow winter we’re guys need the money and budgets need to be spent. And or a need to lower stockpiles so that salt contracts can continue in the future. Either way, this is inexcusable. This event is even close to being justified…. But without it we won't have a good manhole explosion season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 A disappointing overnight of rain instead of snow I78 with any snow on the northern most fringe interior NJ to maybe just n of I80. Nothing here in northern Sussex County NJ so far, except possibly a flurry. We stand at 7" for the season and while one 00z/9 op run of the EC suggests snow Saturday, all 00z/9 ensembles are basically less than 1" snow even I84, through the complex weekend storm. Still not a shutout on possibilities but unlikely in our area for much if any snow. Just pathetic. Can't even look beyond 1/15 for awhile til we get a broad cold 1030MB high spread across the far n part of NYS-New England. The models have backed off the extent of the cold 1/21 on. Canada is going to be completely full of Pacific Martine air and it is going to take quite awhile to build arctic cold back up again without cross polar flow. It looks like NYC is going to make it to 1/20 without its 1st inch of snow. That has only happened a total of 15 times in the entire weather record keeping history of the city 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 A disappointing overnight of rain instead of snow I78 with any snow on the northern most fringe interior NJ to maybe just n of I80. Nothing here in northern Sussex County NJ so far, except possibly a flurry. We stand at 7" for the season and while one 00z/9 op run of the EC suggests snow Saturday, all 00z/9 ensembles are basically less than 1" snow even I84, through the complex weekend storm. Still not a shutout on possibilities but unlikely in our area for much if any snow. Just pathetic. Can't even look beyond 1/15 for awhile til we get a broad cold 1030MB high spread across the far n part of NYS-New England. hey hey… 1/4” of snow here, so it’s a winter wonderland.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, wdrag said: A disappointing overnight of rain instead of snow I78 with any snow on the northern most fringe interior NJ to maybe just n of I80. Nothing here in northern Sussex County NJ so far, except possibly a flurry. We stand at 7" for the season and while one 00z/9 op run of the EC suggests snow Saturday, all 00z/9 ensembles are basically less than 1" snow even I84, through the complex weekend storm. Still not a shutout on possibilities but unlikely in our area for much if any snow. Just pathetic. Can't even look beyond 1/15 for awhile til we get a broad cold 1030MB high spread across the far n part of NYS-New England. Measured 0.01 from last night’s precip. Short range models all backed off on the event as we went through the day yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(35/44)or +6. Month to date is 47.3[+13.3]. Should be near 43.1[+9.6] by the 17th. Finish the month like this and we could be #1. Reached 42 here yesterday. Today: 43-45, wind nw., decreasing clouds, 36 tomorrow AM. EUROens. says some BN in here by the 22nd. or so-----but the GFSens. says no, trough gets stuck to the west of us. 39*(87%RH) here at 6am, drizzle. 38* at 8am. 40* at 9am. 41* at Noon. Reached 44* at 3:30pm. 42* at 6pm. 41* at 9pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 We are getting a December 2015 super El Niño 500 mb pattern in early January. Notice how the whole region is +10 to +15 so far. Very unusual to get a pattern like this with a La Niña. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are getting a December 2015 super El Niño 500 mb pattern in early January. Notice how the whole region is +10 to +15 so far. Very unusual to get a pattern like this with a La Niña. PAC jet ext and strong vortex did this month in 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: PAC jet ext and strong vortex did this month in This has to be one of the most impressive PAC Jet extensions that we have ever seen in early January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 Added CoCoRaHs reports of snowfall overnight: A band into Morris County and a second area measurable e CT eastward. I'll keep checking models, especially for the unlikely event to emerge but for now... snow drought continues. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Pattern looks a bit different now over rest of month. Run of the mill AN in 40s with two cutters and associated warm up. That big surge of +20 heat seems muted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Nice cool and damp commute up the parkway this morning. Much flake, many snow. Yeah, this sucks. Looks like SEMA got our “snewstorm.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Woke up to a bit more than a dusting here in Chester. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Added CoCoRaHs reports of snowfall overnight: A band into Morris County and a second area measurable e CT eastward. I'll keep checking models, especially for the unlikely event to emerge but for now... snow drought continues. These just may be the saddest snowfall maps I have ever seen. As they say, someday we'll look back at these and laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The models have backed off the extent of the cold 1/21 on. Canada is going to be completely full of Pacific Martine air and it is going to take quite awhile to build arctic cold back up again without cross polar flow. It looks like NYC is going to make it to 1/20 without its 1st inch of snow. That has only happened a total of 15 times in the entire weather record keeping history of the city IMO the cold period, if it does happen, wouldn't be until the 28th or so. I suspect the back end of January follows a similar progression to December where the West cools down first once the Asian-Pac jet relaxes, likely around 1/20, then slowly progresses eastward. After that, Nina climo generally favors a return to a -PNA pattern and strong SE ridge for February. It isn't pretty. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: IMO the cold period, if it does happen, wouldn't be until the 28th or so. I suspect the back end of January follows a similar progression to December where the West cools down first once the Asian-Pac jet relaxes, likely around 1/20, then slowly progresses eastward. After that, Nina climo generally favors a return to a -PNA pattern and strong SE ridge for February. It isn't pretty. Hoping we can get some -NAO back to battle the ridge and maybe we’ll at least do better than whatever this hybrid-Niño crap is. It’s certainly demoralizing and the prospect of an actual shutout seems plausible, but the platitude of “there’s a lot of winter left” still seems applicable. Lots of weather left between here and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 dusting here in rockland at home, had light rain in yonkers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Just a trace of snowfall here....BARELY. Jut the slightest coating on the deck and snowboard only. Was not not expecting much so not much disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Statistically, a 50-degree December would be the equivalent of a 45.8-degree January (1991-2020 baseline) at Central Park. The December 2015 average would be the equivalent of a 46.6-degree January. The existing January record, which was set in 1932, is 43.2 degrees. and then February was much cooler? Have we ever had an entire winter with all 4 winter months at or above 40, Don? (December, January, February, March)? I assume it would be 1997-1998 for Central Park and 1997-1998 and 2001-02 for LaGuardia and none for JFK or EWR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 hours ago, wdrag said: Added CoCoRaHs reports of snowfall overnight: A band into Morris County and a second area measurable e CT eastward. I'll keep checking models, especially for the unlikely event to emerge but for now... snow drought continues. Thanks Walt, 0 or a T in the Poconos too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 3 hours ago, bluewave said: This has to be one of the most impressive PAC Jet extensions that we have ever seen in early January. It's really good for the drought out West! Didn't we have a strong jet like this last winter too? Was that in December? The talk this morning is we should expect these kinds of anomalous jets with climate change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 3 hours ago, bluewave said: We are getting a December 2015 super El Niño 500 mb pattern in early January. Notice how the whole region is +10 to +15 so far. Very unusual to get a pattern like this with a La Niña. This really is much more like a neutral after la nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: and then February was much cooler? Have we ever had an entire winter with all 4 winter months at or above 40, Don? (December, January, February, March)? I assume it would be 1997-1998 for Central Park and 1997-1998 and 2001-02 for LaGuardia and none for JFK or EWR? Only at LGA: 2001-02. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Maybe we will get lucky with the 2nd low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 ecmwf 00z shows some snow on the tail end saturday night/sunday. just one model but gives me some type of hope. lets see what the 12z has to offer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 IMO the cold period, if it does happen, wouldn't be until the 28th or so. I suspect the back end of January follows a similar progression to December where the West cools down first once the Asian-Pac jet relaxes, likely around 1/20, then slowly progresses eastward. After that, Nina climo generally favors a return to a -PNA pattern and strong SE ridge for February. It isn't pretty. Yes. The end of month jet retraction is real. You can see what the tropical convective forcing wants to do come early February. If it goes to the eastern IO and Maritime Continent as projected, it’s climo canonical La Niña…Aleutian ridge, RNA/SE ridge and lights out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yes. The end of month jet retraction is real. You can see what the tropical convective forcing wants to do come early February. If it goes to the eastern IO and Maritime Continent aa projected, it’s climo canonical La Niña…Aleutian ridge, RNA/SE ridge and lights out . Only question is, can February be as warm or even warmer than January? avg temp 40 and above for both months? It's interesting how two completely different patterns can have very similar results lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Only question is, can February be as warm or even warmer than January? avg temp 40 and above for both months? It's interesting how two completely different patterns can have very similar results lol. More likely, blocking returns as it statistically does following a neg. AO in December and we are rainy and chilly with temps 45 to 50. We are not lucky enough to get 60 and sunny consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 IMO the cold period, if it does happen, wouldn't be until the 28th or so. I suspect the back end of January follows a similar progression to December where the West cools down first once the Asian-Pac jet relaxes, likely around 1/20, then slowly progresses eastward. After that, Nina climo generally favors a return to a -PNA pattern and strong SE ridge for February. It isn't pretty. Also, it looks like the idea of a February SSW is off the table now, that would have possibly….maybe, thrown a monkey wrench into a canonical Niña February but there isn’t good support for a SSW anymore 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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