January 2023

[donsutherland1]

Advancing cloud shield.
 

 

[eduggs]

The 18z GFS gets a vortmax and 546dm 500mb heights to the FL panhandle with a slightly negatively tilted trof. That should mean potential. The problem is how we get there and the residual 500mb low center in Ontario. 

[donsutherland1]

The 18z GFS showed about 1" of snow on Bufkit for LGA. The 18z NAM was lower. The National Blend of Models showed no accumulation. Overall, the idea of little or no accumulation seems reasonable. Thus, there is some potential for the first measurable snowfall of the season tomorrow in New York City, but such an outcome is not guaranteed.

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The jet is normally retracted in La Nina’s. The extension we have now is a Nino look but that’s ending around 1/21. This, along with the tropical forcing projections leads me to believe we are going canonical Niña climo for February

I think so too, and it probably means instead of mild and wet like we are seeing now with the jet, it'll be mild and dry a la February 2018.  It remains to be seen what March brings (whether there is an SSW or not-- but no one should think there will be a March 2018 repeat) but that may be the only decent chance at snow here.  Of course there can be a random small or moderate event even in a mild pattern, but no one should count on that.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, North and West said:

It’s going to snow in April. I base this on nothing other than everyone’s mood here and the fact that it won’t snow from today through March 31st.

Science.


.

1989-90 says yes

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, North and West said:

The MLB season starts obnoxiously early this year, hence why it’ll be cold and rainy and miserable first half of April. That’s based off of readings of my proprietary model, Old Man Yells at Cloud.


.

Who decided to begin baseball in March?

That's idiotic.

I would much rather the post season end in November-- November is warmer than March is.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

To add on to this, the La Niña is actually not rapidly falling apart at all. Nino region 3.4 actually dropped again the last few days to -1.1C (moderate), the trade winds are still abnormally strong and the SOI is very high, so it is still really well coupled https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

in a way up to now it actually seems like a neutral after la nina which is the most snowless pattern, if we now go to an actual la nina February pattern, then it could be that these annoying rainstorms go away and we just go mild and dry.

still thinking that 1989-90 and 2001-02 and 2011-12 are good analogs.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There was a coating with December event, so even if we do see a coating in the park again late at night and it melts away before morning don’t expect it to be recorded 

I'm pretty sure we had half an inch in December, LGA is the only one that recorded that, but we had the same on the south shore in Nassau County too.

in 1997-98 the airports all recorded a bit more than the Park did before the equinox event

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The difference this year is we may have a -NAO/AO to go with it...we are almost certainly going to have 1-2 more episodes of that this winter based on what happened in December unless we go 89-90 which is the only case where that did not happen 

2001-02 had those -NAO episodes too and yet we didn't get much if any snow then either.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

The last round melted RAPIDLY in Buffalo. Pretty much after the cold air behind the systems moves out, the SW wind brings in the warm air pretty stoutly and the Pacific maritime air quickly does its dirty work. We desperately need a shakeup.

It's interesting how it's the same Pacific air that causes feet of snow out west though lol.  You really need to be in the mountains to get decent snow anymore.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

If the ensemble forecasts are close, then NYC has a chance at finishing January near or even above 40°.

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	49.5	24
2	1932	43.2	0
3	1950	41.8	2
4	1990	41.4	0
5	2006	40.9	0
6	1913	40.8	0
7	1933	40.3	0
8	1937	40.2	0
9	1998	40.0	0
10	2002	39.9	0

Chris, how many times have both January and February averaged 40 or above? I think 1989-90 was close and 2001-02 actually did it.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, wdrag said:

I agree with Don 100%.  This stuff fuels speculation beyond 8 days and I'm pretty sure the NWS doesn't appreciate answering phone calls from us the public, based on a model or two speculating-going bonkers for two cycles.  I know I didn't when I was in Mt Holly. A couple of towns were notorious at least until my 2018 departure. This wastes forecaster time better spent on forecast model evaluatio, IDSS (decision support for EM's etc), and or focal point duties. 

 

Any chance we can self discipline and witness 3 consecutive GFS cycles of + SnowD change in the same corridor Ii84, I95, I78 whatever) with maybe at least some similar EC and GGEM support.  Just needs to happen.  Boards are going too heavy too far out.  

 

Again and again... please take the little ones and enjoy them. Look out the window tomorrow morning at 4,5,6A and enjoy the falling snow, whatever you see in the I78-I80-I84 slot.  It's better than getting shutout D10 and your kids may like seeing a little cover on the grass.

Finally: GGEM I think needs to agree about snow with other modeling before locking in.  The Canadian can run a little warm but if it cyclically has snow or ice within 5 days, I think that will help decide potential reality.   Thank you,  Walt

 

I can't believe they waste their time with phone calls, Walt.  I'd say, realistically, that weather beyond 5-7 days is completely unpredictable and I don't even know why we run models past that.  I would concentrate funds and energy on making short range and medium range forecasting as accurate as possible and not run any model beyond 7 days at all.

 

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think so too, and it probably means instead of mild and wet like we are seeing now with the jet, it'll be mild and dry a la February 2018.  It remains to be seen what March brings (whether there is an SSW or not-- but no one should think there will be a March 2018 repeat) but that may be the only decent chance at snow here.  Of course there can be a random small or moderate event even in a mild pattern, but no one should count on that.

 

The tropical forcing would make the end of the month into February cold and stormy.

[tmagan]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, how many times have both January and February averaged 40 or above? I think 1989-90 was close and 2001-02 actually did it.

 

Actually neither, just 1998 and barely at that.

[Roger Smith]

Here are some cases where January was mild and snow-free, but either Feb or Mar (or both) produced snowfall. Notes on whether Jan was extending a snow drought or not also ...

1876 (12.5" + 3.8") __ only 2.5" snow to end of Jan (1.5" in Jan), despite some very cold weather in late NOV and first half DEC

1906 (6.0" +11.5") __ again only 2.5" snow to end of Jan (1.5" in Jan)

1916 (13.1"+25.5") __ 8.1" had fallen in Dec, just 0.7" in Jan. There was also 3.3" in Apr.

1933 (12.8" +4.8") __ 9.4" had fallen in Dec, Jan had only a trace.

1949 (10.7" + 4.2") __ 25.3" had fallen in Dec although it was often quite mild, and 1.8" fell in Jan.

1950 (8.5" + 1.4") __ 1.8" fell in Nov-Dec, and just 0.4" in a very mild Jan.

1967 (23.6" +17.4") _ 9.1" fell in Dec and 1.4" in Jan. 

1975 (10.6" +0.3") __ 0.1" Nov and Dec each, 2.0" Jan. 

1993 (10.7" +11.9") __ 0.4" Dec and 1.5" Jan. 

1995 (11.6" + Tr) __ Traces Nov-Dec and 0.2" Jan

2006 (26.9" +1.3") _ 9.7" Dec and 2.0" Jan

2013 was fairly mild to 20th _ 12.2" Feb (mostly 8-9) and 7.3" Mar

 

Of course other cases don't recover (much) including 1913, 1932, 1973, 2007 (3.8" + 6.0"), 2012

I have left out some more recent cases which people will recall anyway. 

It doesn't look that bad a signal for later snowfall to have a mild January, and of the list I produced, there are plenty of record highs some of which were quite late in the month. Jan 1906 had a very warm period all over eastern N America 21st to 24th, its records have fallen to later years including 1967 in some cases. 

I also see some encouraging looking shifts in circulation towards end of current GFS run. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

At 32 now. A good sign for maybe some sticking? 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, how many times have both January and February averaged 40 or above? I think 1989-90 was close and 2001-02 actually did it.

 

JFK: None

LGA: 1998 and 2002

NYC: 1998

[psv88]

28 in Suffolk now, was 25 this morning. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

JFK: None

LGA: 1998 and 2002

NYC: 1998

With all these warm winters I wonder why it hasn't been more frequent?

40 degrees seems to be a fairly low bar to clear, especially since it's already averaged 50 in December.

Also, I was shocked that the highest min in January has been 25.  I would have thought we've had some where it was 28, 29, 30, etc as the lowest temp.

I guess we're getting used to this weather now.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I guess we're getting used to this weather now.

 

I'm certainly not

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I'm certainly not

I think because you were in Iceland lol.

 

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

With all these warm winters I wonder why it hasn't been more frequent?

40 degrees seems to be a fairly low bar to clear, especially since it's already averaged 50 in December.

Also, I was shocked that the highest min in January has been 25.  I would have thought we've had some where it was 28, 29, 30, etc as the lowest temp.

I guess we're getting used to this weather now.

 

Statistically, a 50-degree December would be the equivalent of a 45.8-degree January (1991-2020 baseline) at Central Park. The December 2015 average would be the equivalent of a 46.6-degree January. The existing January record, which was set in 1932, is 43.2 degrees.

[HeadInTheClouds]

23 right now. 

[snowman19]

This is just crazy, tonight has fizzled into zippo. I figured NYC would at least get its 1st dusting/coating tonight. The new HRRR doesn’t have so much as a snow shower now. Its found every way possible not to snow for the last 3 months https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023010900&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[Islandersguy]

Streetlight snow

[Tatamy]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is just crazy, tonight has fizzled into zippo. I figured NYC would at least get its 1st dusting/coating tonight. The new HRRR doesn’t have so much as a snow shower now. Its found every way possible not to snow for the last 3 months https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023010900&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Just seeing light drizzle with some melting flakes.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Something is seriously shady with the amount of salters I saw dumping tons of salt on the way into work on the uws. I run snow removal for a college and would never dump salt

1. during rain

2. with a solid forecast of above freezing temps.

Since salt is damaging to vehicles and the environment something is up.

Possibly a good old boys overtime scheme in a low snow winter we’re guys need the money and budgets need to be spent. And or a need to lower stockpiles so that salt contracts can continue in the future. 
Either way, this is inexcusable. This event is even close to being justified….

[gravitylover]

I've been saying that for years now. Last week the roads were heavily brined ahead of the rain, yesterday they brined and salted. Grrrr

I did get a dusting a little while ago so it will look wintry when the sun comes up. Meh... 

 

 

[North and West]

Something is seriously shady with the amount of salters I saw dumping tons of salt on the way into work on the uws. I run snow removal for a college and would never dump salt
1. during rain
2. with a solid forecast of above freezing temps.
Since salt is damaging to vehicles and the environment something is up.
Possibly a good old boys overtime scheme in a low snow winter we’re guys need the money and budgets need to be spent. And or a need to lower stockpiles so that salt contracts can continue in the future. 
Either way, this is inexcusable. This event is even close to being justified….

Budget to spend so you get more $ next year.


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[wdrag]

A disappointing overnight of rain instead of snow I78 with any snow on the northern most fringe interior NJ to maybe just n of I80. Nothing here in northern Sussex County NJ so far, except possibly a flurry. We stand at 7" for the season and while one 00z/9 op run of the EC suggests snow Saturday, all 00z/9 ensembles are basically less than 1" snow even I84, through the complex weekend storm. Still not a shutout on possibilities but unlikely in our area for much if any snow. Just pathetic. Can't even look beyond 1/15 for awhile til we get a broad cold 1030MB high spread across the far n part of NYS-New England.