January 2023

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   40degs.(36/45) or +7.

Reached 46 here yesterday.

Today:    39-43, wind w., p. sunny, clouding up late, 38 tomorrow AM.

Whether we finish at +9.6 or better this month---it seems we will still be in the running for warmest ever January by the last week of the month.       Judging how it looks at the end of the Ensemble run,  BN air is still days away!

 

35*(60%RH) here at 6am.      34* at 7am.      36* at 9am.       39* at Noon.       Reached 42* at 3pm.        39* at 6pm.

[donsutherland1]

The latest ensemble idea concerning the January 13-15 system.

Ensemble support for 1" or more for tonight into tomorrow, which had briefly risen to 25% on the EPS, has fallen sharply overnight. High resolution models will provide better insight at this point. For NYC itself, little or no accumulation appears likely given the warm surface and above freezing readings expected. A slushy coating is possible in the nearby suburbs.

[JTA66]

47 minutes ago, North and West said:

It’s going to snow in April. I base this on nothing other than everyone’s mood here and the fact that it won’t snow from today through March 31st.

Science.


.

1989-90 keeps getting mentioned. After being in the 80’s the week before St Patrick’s Day, we had a heavy, wet snowstorm around the equinox. Then I believe we had a coating of snow for Easter.

I think all our snow that year fell outside of winter. So yes, put me down for a late-season, does-it-even matter-at-this-point, April snow.

[North and West]

1989-90 keeps getting mentioned. After being in the 80’s the week before St Patrick’s Day, we had a heavy, wet snowstorm around the equinox. Then I believe we had a coating of snow for Easter.
I think all our snow that year fell outside of winter. So yes, put me down for a late-season, does-it-even matter-at-this-point, April snow.

I know that all of the four-eyed nerds on this site are looking at “forecasts” and “models” and “temperatures” and “trends” but it’s going to snow in April because it’s warm now.

Jesus, I’m becoming my father.


.

[bluewave]

If the ensemble forecasts are close, then NYC has a chance at finishing January near or even above 40°.

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	49.5	24
2	1932	43.2	0
3	1950	41.8	2
4	1990	41.4	0
5	2006	40.9	0
6	1913	40.8	0
7	1933	40.3	0
8	1937	40.2	0
9	1998	40.0	0
10	2002	39.9	0

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the ensemble forecasts are close, then NYC has a chance at finishing January near or even above 40°.

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	49.5	24
2	1932	43.2	0
3	1950	41.8	2
4	1990	41.4	0
5	2006	40.9	0
6	1913	40.8	0
7	1933	40.3	0
8	1937	40.2	0
9	1998	40.0	0
10	2002	39.9	0

Can we see the warmest January on record?

[snowman19]

The latest ensemble idea concerning the January 13-15 system.

Ensemble support for 1" or more for tonight into tomorrow, which had briefly risen to 25% on the EPS, has fallen sharply overnight. High resolution models will provide better insight at this point. For NYC itself, little or no accumulation appears likely given the warm surface and above freezing readings expected. A slushy coating is possible in the nearby suburbs.

I don’t think anyone is surprised tonight trended into nothing. It has been finding ways not to snow here for months. Since November, every potential event has turned into nada

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t think anyone is surprised tonight trended into nothing. It has been finding ways not to snow here for months. Since November, every potential event has turned into nada

Exactly and people should stop looking and posting 300 hour ensemble maps.

[EastonSN+]

So for NYC Central Park and Kennedy have zero, while LaGuardia has 0.4.

Although snowfall looks bleak for the foreseeable future, have a hard time believing that they are shut out the rest of the way. Almost as unlikely as not encountering a single thunderstorm in summer.

2 months left, with shorter wavelengths/high volatility in late February and March. What are the chances that even a February 2018/January 2012 fluke does not happen? 

How many of us would bet our live savings on a shut out the rest of the way?

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Exactly and people should stop looking and posting 300 hour ensemble maps.

If one looked at Social Media even a few days ago, there was a lot of chatter about a big East Coast snowstorm for the January 13-15 period. Some years--1996 and 2016--were tossed out there, too. Such extreme events are rare. They should not be referenced except carefully. Potential events should not be benchmarked against them without strong and consistent evidence that supports such claims. Exaggerated speculation about potential events damages credibility and misinforms the public.

In response to such chatter, I posted EPS ensemble trends to illustrate where things actually stood

In fact, as the graph shows:

1. The risk for 1" or more snowfall was moderate at best for New York City. There were no cycles where even half the ensemble members showed 1" or more snow.

2. The risk of 10" or more snow was low (always under 10%).

3. There was no evidence-based case to tie the potential event to either the 1996 or 2016 mega-blizzards.

Responding to such chatter, I concluded in a lengthy post on Thursday:

...one can cautiously conclude that January 13-15 offers a window of opportunity to break the measurable snow drought. If things go really well, there might be a small chance of a big snowfall. Much can still change given the timeframe involved. There remain no guarantees. Chatter about big amounts on Twitter or Instagram or Facebook (with or without the posting of long-range snow maps) is pure speculation, as it goes far beyond the bounds of objectivity, regardless of the author.

As Dr. Marshall Shepherd put it in a recent tweet in response to a 240-hour ECMWF map, "Snow storm forecasts based on 1 model run 10 days out is fantasy land so please be wary of stuff like this when you see it..." Shepherd's advice should be taken seriously.

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

So for NYC Central Park and Kennedy have zero, while LaGuardia has 0.4.

Although snowfall looks bleak for the foreseeable future, have a hard time believing that they are shut out the rest of the way. Almost as unlikely as not encountering a single thunderstorm in summer.

2 months left, with shorter wavelengths/high volatility in late February and March. What are the chances that even a February 2018/January 2012 fluke does not happen? 

How many of us would bet our live savings on a shut out the rest of the way?

I would be very surprised if Central Park or JFK had no measurable snowfall this winter. I do think the threat of < 1" is a low probability scenario that can't be dismissed altogether. It's still not a likely one, as I see it, but we'll see how things go.

Such an outcome almost happened during Winter 1997-1998 until 5" of snow fell at Central Park and 2.9" fell at JFK on March 22, 1998. That "near miss" with historic futility suggests that had things been just a little different, both locations would have had <1" seasonal snowfall. 

Maybe this will be the winter? I doubt it. It would probably take a near record warm January courtesy of the strong Pacific jet handing off the baton to a canonical La Niña February followed by a mild March and April to bring about that sorry outcome.

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest ensemble idea concerning the January 13-15 system.

Ensemble support for 1" or more for tonight into tomorrow, which had briefly risen to 25% on the EPS, has fallen sharply overnight. High resolution models will provide better insight at this point. For NYC itself, little or no accumulation appears likely given the warm surface and above freezing readings expected. A slushy coating is possible in the nearby suburbs.

 

[wdrag]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If one looked at Social Media even a few days ago, there was a lot of chatter about a big East Coast snowstorm for the January 13-15 period. Some years--1996 and 2016--were tossed out there, too. Such extreme events are rare. They should not be referenced except carefully. Potential events should not be benchmarked against them without strong and consistent evidence that supports such claims. Exaggerated speculation about potential events damages credibility and misinforms the public.

In response to such chatter, I posted EPS ensemble trends to illustrate where things actually stood

In fact, as the graph shows:

1. The risk for 1" or more snowfall was moderate at best for New York City. There were no cycles where even half the ensemble members showed 1" or more snow.

2. The risk of 10" or more snow was low (always under 10%).

3. There was no evidence-based case to tie the potential event to either the 1996 or 2016 mega-blizzards.

Responding to such chatter, I concluded in a lengthy post on Thursday:

...one can cautiously conclude that January 13-15 offers a window of opportunity to break the measurable snow drought. If things go really well, there might be a small chance of a big snowfall. Much can still change given the timeframe involved. There remain no guarantees. Chatter about big amounts on Twitter or Instagram or Facebook (with or without the posting of long-range snow maps) is pure speculation, as it goes far beyond the bounds of objectivity, regardless of the author.

As Dr. Marshall Shepherd put it in a recent tweet in response to a 240-hour ECMWF map, "Snow storm forecasts based on 1 model run 10 days out is fantasy land so please be wary of stuff like this when you see it..." Shepherd's advice should be taken seriously.

I agree with Don 100%.  This stuff fuels speculation beyond 8 days and I'm pretty sure the NWS doesn't appreciate answering phone calls from us the public, based on a model or two speculating-going bonkers for two cycles.  I know I didn't when I was in Mt Holly. A couple of towns were notorious at least until my 2018 departure. This wastes forecaster time better spent on forecast model evaluatio, IDSS (decision support for EM's etc), and or focal point duties. 

 

Any chance we can self discipline and witness 3 consecutive GFS cycles of + SnowD change in the same corridor Ii84, I95, I78 whatever) with maybe at least some similar EC and GGEM support.  Just needs to happen.  Boards are going too heavy too far out.  

 

Again and again... please take the little ones and enjoy them. Look out the window tomorrow morning at 4,5,6A and enjoy the falling snow, whatever you see in the I78-I80-I84 slot.  It's better than getting shutout D10 and your kids may like seeing a little cover on the grass.

Finally: GGEM I think needs to agree about snow with other modeling before locking in.  The Canadian can run a little warm but if it cyclically has snow or ice within 5 days, I think that will help decide potential reality.   Thank you,  Walt

 

[winterwx21]

The event for late in the week is speeding up so much that rain might come in thursday afternoon. It's looking like a thursday night into friday morning rain and then a dry weekend. 

[eduggs]

It looks like there's a small chance some NYC urban areas won't hit freezing all January. I think we'll get a seasonably cold day or two at least, but it's not a given.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It looks like there's a small chance some NYC urban areas won't hit freezing all January. I think we'll get a seasonably cold day or two at least, but it's not a given.

Pretty unprecedented 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Can we see the warmest January on record?

Not only is that a lock the question is by how much

 

This is Dec 15 territory. Rewriting the books.

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Good track but mostly rainers

Can't make this crap up 

It’s too warm. You’re rooting for snow in November.

[donsutherland1]

58 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It looks like there's a small chance some NYC urban areas won't hit freezing all January. I think we'll get a seasonably cold day or two at least, but it's not a given.

That would easily smash the existing record. At Central Park, the record high monthly minimum temperature for January is 25°. That mark was set in 1937.

[wdrag]

Something I worry about: socially false record's or deep snow alarming based on models beyond 240 hours could shutter availability. Probably can't now but really need to reign it in on all boards...show more care.  Eventually the models will be good enough but I think for now it's a little soon...at least until we get some cyclic consistency and other model support. 

So that +PNA (relaxing e Pac Jet) and trend to colder that has been discussed in broad terms for days now.... evidenced in the 12z/8 384 hr... a 1050MB high for 12z/23 attempting entry into the northern Plains.  That would be a surface idea of +PNA response.  It won't be perfect but 'suggests' some legit subnormal or normal cold air may eventually arrive in the northern USA. Leave it as possible response and lets see if D16-23 can in reality flush out the Pac air for a while?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I have a theory about warm starts and cool endings to our current climate winters. It has to do with low Arctic sea ice and the resultant albedo effect of open water in our cold air source. It’s still cold enough for most of the Arctic to eventually freeze however. Thus our cold air source is available late season. This is a very simplistic view as it would take pages and pages to prove this. The Arctic is still very sparsely sampled so it’s also hard to prove. But to me the proof is in what we have been experiencing. That’s why I think a shutout is harder to do for us during the second half of the season and we will likely see this many times in the near future. 

[Volcanic Winter]

12 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Something I worry about: socially false record's or deep snow alarming based on models beyond 240 hours could shutter availability. Probably can't now but really need to reign it in on all boards...show more care.  Eventually the models will be good enough but I think for now it's a little soon...at least until we get some cyclic consistency and other model support. 

So that +PNA (relaxing e Pac Jet) and trend to colder that has been discussed in broad terms for days now.... evidenced in the 12z/8 384 hr... a 1050MB high for 12z/23 attempting entry into the northern Plains.  That would be a surface idea of +PNA response.  It won't be perfect but 'suggests' some legit subnormal or normal cold air may eventually arrive in the northern USA. Leave it as possible response and lets see if D16-23 can in reality flush out the Pac air for a while?

Thank you, your posts and analyses are very much appreciated. 

Remain optimistic we’ll see something (the area), eventually. No doubt this awful pattern will eventually yield into hopefully something a little less awful. If we go back to RNA/SE Ridge so be it, maybe we’ll get a brief period inbetween where we can hopefully snag a moderate event at least. 

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, eduggs said:

It looks like there's a small chance some NYC urban areas won't hit freezing all January. I think we'll get a seasonably cold day or two at least, but it's not a given.

Next weekend looks chilly after the lakes storm 

[donsutherland1]

Latest EPS ensembles concerning January 13-15:

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Next weekend looks chilly after the lakes storm 

Yeah the recent model cycles show it cooling down for a day or two around the weekend. But if there are clouds behind the ULL or if guidance switches back to the pinched off ULL that might change. I think it could be a close call for the urban centers.

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yeah the recent model cycles show it cooling down for a day or two around the weekend. But if there are clouds behind the ULL or if guidance switches back to the pinched off ULL that might change. I think it could be a close call for the urban centers.

Models now phasing in the northern stream, unless that changes the urban areas will have no issues going below 32. 

[eduggs]

I think the ICON is somewhat close to a longshot scenario that could bring snow to our area or the NW fringes.  At day 3 there is one shortwave over CO and another over MN. If they stay longitudinally separated far enough, the more northerly wave can interfere somewhat with the maturation of the southerly wave and shunt any surface reflection further southeast. Wave amplification typically occurs when a shortwave is on the downstream side of a longwave trof.

In the ideal scenario, a 3rd follow up wave (upper Midwest at day 4) phases with the southern wave, dropping into the backside of the trof, leading to amplification and negative tilting. If we can avoid an initial wave phasing and resulting SLP into western NY, there may be enough cold air relatively close by to tap into a coastal low. We would still need the trof to take on a significant negative tilt, without pinching off the cold air source, to wrap some moisture back into the cold air.

I believe a few ensemble members have shown something like this. But the UK, EC, and GFS are pretty far off.

[eduggs]

The 12z CMC shows the coastal low that I believe we need to deliver a miracle for us. It grazes Cape Cod at day 6 and then dumps heavy snow on downeast Maine.

[eduggs]

The 18z GFS continues with a northern stream shortwave that is too sharp and too closely spaced with the southern wave, which allows wave phasing and a SLP into southern Ontario. This scours the cold air, shunts the baroclinicity offshore behind the front, and taints the 500mb height structure and any follow up coastal.

[donsutherland1]

Clouds will increase overnight and light precipitation will overspread the region. Light precipitation will continue into tomorrow. New York City and coastal areas will see some light rain and snow. Little or no accumulation is likely. Interior sections could pick up a coating of snow. Mainly dry and mild weather will return following the precipitation.

The once moderate support for snowfall during the January 13-15 period diminished sharply. Just 6% of 12z EPS members show 1" or more snow for New York City.

2022 became the 14th year during which New York City received no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions.

The SOI was +22.15 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.264 today.

On January 6 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.996 (RMM). The January 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.041 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.5° (6.8° above normal).