donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, North and West said: Imagine the boards that year. . Right now, a "small flurry of snow" would be a welcome respite from the ongoing snow drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 2001-02 is the peak low WSI winter isn't it? Even lower WSI than 1972-73? When taking into account temperates and low snow? 2001-02 was much warmer than 1972-73. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 2001-02 was much warmer than 1972-73. Places south did really well in 72/73 too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Interesting that 1965-66 is on this list, as that was a historic winter in the midatlantic.... 40" of snow in Norfolk? a good el nino too. Followed by a classic switch from el nino to neutral/la nina that gave us one of our hottest driest summers ever and one of our greatest winters, 1966-67 was very memorable. The 1966 blizzard occurred later. Norfolk's seasonal snowfall during 1965-1966 was 14.7". 41.9" fell at Norfolk during winter 1979-1980. The biggest snowfalls occurred during February 6-7, 1980 (12.4") and March 1-2, 1980 (13.7"). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Just now, donsutherland1 said: The 1966 blizzard occurred later. Norfolk's seasonal snowfall during 1965-1966 was 14.7". 41.9" fell at Norfolk during winter 1979-1980. The biggest snowfalls occurred during February 6-7, 1980 (12.4") and March 1-2, 1980 (13.7"). who had 40" in 1965-66....was it ACY? or DCA? I remember someone to our south did, I just don't remember the city lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 The EPS ensembles for January 8-9, 2023 in New York City: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: who had 40" in 1965-66....was it ACY? or DCA? I remember someone to our south did, I just don't remember the city lol. Harrisburg had 42.6". Atlantic City, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Richmond and Washington, DC did not have 40" of snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The EPS ensembles for January 8-9, 2023 in New York City: Now this looks like more of a chance at getting snow than the storm for next weekend, Don? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Now this looks like more of a chance at getting snow than the storm for next weekend, Don? Yes. That’s correct. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Agree [mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]. I definitely think we go rna in February You can already see it starting around 1/21….the extended Pac jet finally retracts and goes into a +PNA at first, then it’s going to retro to the Aleutians and morph into an Aleutian ridge/RNA pattern and the SE ridge pops at the beginning of February and we go classic La Niña, forcing goes to the IO and Maritime Continent, per Niña climo. Seeing no signs of anything causing a major disruption to that system . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: You can already see it starting around 1/21….the extended Pac jet finally retracts and goes into a +PNA at first, then it’s going to retro to the Aleutians and morph into an Aleutian ridge/RNA pattern and the SE ridge pops at the beginning of February and we go classic La Niña, forcing goes to the IO and Maritime Continent, per Niña climo. Seeing no signs of anything causing a major disruption to that system . I think that Pac jet retracting is all anyone cares about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 I think that Pac jet retracting is all anyone cares about. The jet is normally retracted in La Nina’s. The extension we have now is a Nino look but that’s ending around 1/21. This, along with the tropical forcing projections leads me to believe we are going canonical Niña climo for February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 The jet is normally retracted in La Nina’s. The extension we have now is a Nino look but that’s ending around 1/21. This, along with the tropical forcing projections leads me to believe we are going canonical Niña climo for FebruaryTo add on to this, the La Niña is actually not rapidly falling apart at all. Nino region 3.4 actually dropped again the last few days to -1.1C (moderate), the trade winds are still abnormally strong and the SOI is very high, so it is still really well coupled https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 8, 2023 Author Share Posted January 8, 2023 Besides turning colder in the eastern USA after 1/23... for how long? I see our Long Rangers have us in a warmer than normal Feb. So I guess its just normally colder for a few days the last week of January. In the meantime measurable snow risk: Philly-NYC early Monday... a snow sleet rain mix. If any snow comes down hard enough, there might be a first measurable of the season but right now, that is uncertain and because of modeled surface temps, not likely. Wet roads. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Besides turning colder in the eastern USA after 1/23... for how long? I see our Long Rangers have us in a warmer than normal Feb. So I guess its just normally colder for a few days the last week of January. In the meantime measurable snow risk: Philly-NYC early Monday... a snow sleet rain mix. If any snow comes down hard enough, there might be a first measurable of the season but right now, that is uncertain and because of modeled surface temps, not likely. Wet roads.Here’s a very good example. Watch the jet retraction, the ridge retrograde and the -PNA/SE ridge develop come the beginning of February 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Here’s a very good example. Watch the jet retraction, the ridge retrograde and the -PNA/SE ridge develop come the beginning of February [/url] . 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny with near to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures. High temperatures will reach the lower 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 41° Newark: 43° Philadelphia: 44° A weak system will bring a period of light rain and snow to the region late tonight into tomorrow. Little or no accumulation is likely in New York City. Interior sections could pick up a coating. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.6° Newark: 30-Year: 40.1°; 15-Year: 41.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.5°; 15-Year: 42.4° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Yet another day will very likely pass without New York City seeing a measurable snowfall at Central Park. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yet another day will very likely pass without New York City seeing a measurable snowfall at Central Park. There was a coating with December event, so even if we do see a coating in the park again late at night and it melts away before morning don’t expect it to be recorded 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Here’s a very good example. Watch the jet retraction, the ridge retrograde and the -PNA/SE ridge develop come the beginning of February The difference this year is we may have a -NAO/AO to go with it...we are almost certainly going to have 1-2 more episodes of that this winter based on what happened in December unless we go 89-90 which is the only case where that did not happen 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 The difference this year is we may have a -NAO/AO to go with it...we are almost certainly going to have 1-2 more episodes of that this winter based on what happened in December unless we go 89-90 which is the only case where that did not happen If there is no -NAO in February it will roast. That would be the only thing to stop an all out torch and tame the SE ridge 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Just now, snowman19 said: If there is no -NAO in February it will roast. That would be the only thing to stop an all out torch and tame the SE ridge Its hard to roast anymore than we are now to be honest....this winter has consistenly done what nobody has expected so would not shock me at all if February looked like an El Nino and we averaged -10.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 15 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Wow Rochester is even more amazing, although the deficits look about the same. Do they ever think about transporting some of that Buffalo snow farther east? Although it's probably all melted by now. The last round melted RAPIDLY in Buffalo. Pretty much after the cold air behind the systems moves out, the SW wind brings in the warm air pretty stoutly and the Pacific maritime air quickly does its dirty work. We desperately need a shakeup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 If there is no -NAO in February it will roast. That would be the only thing to stop an all out torch and tame the SE ridgeIt’s going to snow in April. I base this on nothing other than everyone’s mood here and the fact that it won’t snow from today through March 31st.Science.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 31 minutes ago, North and West said: It’s going to snow in April. I base this on nothing other than everyone’s mood here and the fact that it won’t snow from today through March 31st. Science. . I wouldn't be shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Good track but mostly rainers Can't make this crap up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 I wouldn't be shockedThe MLB season starts obnoxiously early this year, hence why it’ll be cold and rainy and miserable first half of April. That’s based off of readings of my proprietary model, Old Man Yells at Cloud.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Good track but mostly rainers Can't make this crap up Just like high school: Swing and a miss.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There was a coating with December event, so even if we do see a coating in the park again late at night and it melts away before morning don’t expect it to be recorded Sadly, that’s very likely the case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good track but mostly rainers Can't make this crap up those are just waves on a cold front 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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