January 2023

[snowman19]

At this point if you’re a snow lover just root for one storm before spring 

Something has to completely throw a monkey wrench into February or I think that month torches. If you look at the tropical models the convective forcing wants to go to the Maritime Continent and the IO at the end of this month into early February. If that happens it’s canonical Niña, -PNA/RNA, SE ridge city


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[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Something has to completely throw a monkey wrench into February or I think that month torches. If you look at the tropical models the convective forcing wants to go to the Maritime Continent and the IO at the end of this month into early February. If that happens it’s canonical Niña, -PNA/RNA, SE ridge city


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Models still want to take the MJO into 8-1. 

Go back to hibernation 

[Volcanic Winter]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lol

That's sort of baffling, what model is indicating snow potential within that stripe right now outside of a very small number of ensemble members? Why would they stoke the hype machine at this point with such an abysmally low percentage storm? ... nevermind.

[snowman19]

Models still want to take the MJO into 8-1. 
Go back to hibernation 

Good luck with that lol unless something stops it, we’re going to go canonical Niña in February. Stop listening to JB he’s been wrong all winter


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[TugHillMatt]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

8" in Scranton lol.

This really is an all timer 

Deficit continues to grow up here. What a string of utter crap winters in Syracuse.

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Lol

I got their big bend right here.

[SnoSki14]

Looking at the 10-14 forecast and it's mid-late March weather in mid January. 

Wild to look at. We'll prob need another mega warm push (60-70F) to get record warmest January but it's definitely in the cards. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

At this point if you’re a snow lover just root for one storm before spring 

Yep. Since January is shot, we're now down to the hope of one big storm salvaging the winter in February or March. Getting a KU in the 2nd half of the winter is our only hope of getting fairly close to normal snowfall for the winter. With today's crazy climate it certainly wouldn't be a shock if that happened, but overall the situation for this winter is bleak. We're going to get to late January without an inch of snow. Pretty much as bad as it gets for snow lovers. 

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

At this point if you’re a snow lover just root for one storm before spring 

The way we are going I can certainly see this winter being a one hit wonder. Whether that hit is a SECS, MECS or HECS remains to be seen. 

[Allsnow]

Agree @snowman19. I definitely think we go rna  in February 

[MJO812]

50 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Deficit continues to grow up here. What a string of utter crap winters in Syracuse.

Buffalo Is so lucky that they got the lake effect storms. 

[North and West]

Of course, there were some bleak winters during the 18th century, too. From John Adams’ diary:

Imagine the boards that year.


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[North and West]

Buffalo Is so lucky that they got the lake effect storms. 

Didn’t scores of people perish in awful conditions? I mean, luck isn’t the word I would use


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[rclab]

56 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I got their big bend right here.

Good evening RTD208. I believe Accu Weather is using a ‘peyronie’ model for their forecast. Stay well, as always …..

[WarrenCtyWx]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Of course, there were some bleak winters during the 18th century, too. From John Adams’ diary:

I would kill to have accurate and concrete snowfall records from the LIA winters before 1869.

[bluewave]

NYC is currently at the 9th latest first measurable snowfall as of January 7th.

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
1972	03-14 (1972)	1.3	01-29 (1973)	1.8	320
1870	04-04 (1870)	2.5	01-21 (1871)	0.4	291
1999	03-15 (1999)	4.0	01-20 (2000)	2.5	310
1965	04-02 (1965)	1.2	01-20 (1966)	0.4	292
2006	04-05 (2006)	0.1	01-19 (2007)	0.3	288
1997	03-14 (1997)	0.2	01-18 (1998)	0.5	309
2015	03-20 (2015)	4.5	01-17 (2016)	0.4	302
1994	03-18 (1994)	2.8	01-11 (1995)	0.2	298
1885	03-29 (1885)	3.0	01-09 (1886)	5.0	285
2001	03-26 (2001)	0.3	01-07 (2002)	0.5	286
1895	03-02 (1895)	1.0	01-07 (1896)	0.5	310

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Good luck with that lol unless something stops it, we’re going to go canonical Niña in February. Stop listening to JB he’s been wrong all winter


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it's more like neutral which is actually worse than a  la nina

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, North and West said:

Imagine the boards that year.


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papyrus is tough to write on

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I would kill to have accurate and concrete snowfall records from the LIA winters before 1869.

Pennsylvania Weather Book and I remember seeing some really old records in a weather almanac all the way back to the 1700s for NYC (I don't remember the exact location) when I was at the New York Public Library.

Back then both January and February had mean temperatures in the 20s and February was consistently colder than January.

Both NYC and PHL peaked with 100" snowfall seasons a few times and the all time record low was -16 at NYC in January pre Revolutionary War when canons were being dragged across the Hudson and shops were set up right on the river in the winter.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Deficit continues to grow up here. What a string of utter crap winters in Syracuse.

Wow Rochester is even more amazing, although the deficits look about the same.

Do they ever think about transporting some of that Buffalo snow farther east?  Although it's probably all melted by now.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe 1850 is a better example but still, climate change isn't directly causing this warm/awful stretch. It's enhancing it for sure, and more research needs to be done on these massive marine heatwaves and how they lead to long term repeating pattern shifts like these. The very warm W Pacific is leading to this insane repeating Pacific jet pattern for example and acting as an enhancer to this now 3 year Nina. The very warm offshore waters here are enhancing the SE Ridge.

What we need to do is very clear....find some way to destroy the Pacific Ocean =\

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

1750 is a bit of an extreme example as that was still the mini ice age. However I get the point that it did not snow non stop in winters of the past.

That book I read at NYPL did not have snowfall totals but did have average temperature records going back to the early 1700s..... we always had at least one month back then that averaged in the 20s.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

2001-02 received 0.5” of snow on today’s date.

2001-02 is the peak low WSI winter isn't it? Even lower WSI than 1972-73?  When taking into account temperates and low snow?

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

It was stormier, and windy. I remember a warm rainy wind that blew my screen door open and shattered the glass, and what a PIA it was to get that replaced. There was a half inch or so late in winter, they didn't bother to salt, and my big Dodge pickup slid down a hilly road before slamming into a curb, ruining the axle. It was a fitting end to a crap winter. I have written before, that I did not touch the snowblower from the end of 96 until the storm of Dec. 2000. There was simply no need. And there were some unbearable summers in there too, like 99. 

1999 was one of the greatest summers, July 1999 was a true treasure of the 11 year cycle with temperatures over 100 back to back and 20 90 degree days in that month alone.

The big problem we had that year was west nile virus lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today, Winter 2022-2023 will become just the 9th winter on record during which New York City had seen no measurable snowfall through January 7th. The last such winter was 2015-2016.

Those winters were: 1885-1886, 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1994-1995, 1997-1998, 1999-2000, 2006-2007, 2015-2016, and 2022-2023.

Interesting that 1965-66 is on this list, as that was a historic winter in the midatlantic.... 40" of snow in Norfolk? a good el nino too.

Followed by a classic switch from el nino to neutral/la nina that gave us one of our hottest driest summers ever and one of our greatest winters, 1966-67 was very memorable.

 

[Uniblab]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Buffalo Is so lucky that they got the lake effect storms. 

Which quickly melted. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Uniblab said:

Which quickly melted. 

Lake effect melts quickly

[LibertyBell]

The best winters in that weather almanac book that I read about were in the 1840s and 1860s when there were a couple of winters that had constant snowcover from PHL to NYC from Thanksgiving to St Paddy's Day.  Those were the 100" snowfall winters.

A couple in the 1700s were like that too, in the 1750s and 1780s as well as one or two in the early 1800s (I think 1804 was one of those.)

 

[donsutherland1]

The second warmest opening week of January is concluding in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Even as somewhat cooler weather now prevails, no Arctic shots appear likely for the foreseeable future.

The second week of January will be cooler, but a cold outcome is unlikely. The once moderate support for snowfall during the January 13-15 period diminished sharply. Just 6% of 12z EPS members show 1" or more snow for New York City. Prior to then, there remains a low probability of measurable snowfall tomorrow night into Monday.

2022 became the 14th year during which New York City received no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions.

The SOI was +24.93 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.499 today.

On January 5 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.041 (RMM). The January 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.102 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.5° (6.8° above normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

The probability of a measurable snowfall during the January 13-15 period has fallen sharply today. At this point, such an outcome appears unlikely. Things could still change somewhat given the timeframe involved.